NDTV Exit Poll --- Analysis Chalanachithram.com | Topics | Search
Hide Clipart | Log Out | Register | Edit Profile

Last 30 mins | 1 | 2 | 4 hours     Last 1 | 7 Days

Chalanachithram.com DB » TF Industry related » Archive through May 14, 2009 » NDTV Exit Poll --- Analysis « Previous Next »

Author Message
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Mamamiya786
Comedian
Username: Mamamiya786

Post Number: 1475
Registered: 06-2008
Posted From: 98.66.171.110

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 11:37 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Film_fan:

no ....i follow the program daily.....i never heard him saying 20-25% as margin of error....




I heared some thing like that ..but you can recheck it ..The video is available in the ndtv.com.

But he said that ..with 25 years of experience this is the best acurate survey that he has ever conduucted.

last time they told that congress kutami will win 185 seats in the state ..
But the kutami performed better.
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Film_fan
Side Hero
Username: Film_fan

Post Number: 4686
Registered: 03-2008
Posted From: 81.138.131.153

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 11:34 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

"Overall there can be 20-25 percent of chance of error in the total no.of seats .. "
---

no ....i follow the program daily.....i never heard him saying 20-25% as margin of error....

he only said....small parties may do much better......but all polls give....loads of percentage for Others.....
"Any one who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new" - Einstein
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Politricks
Side Hero
Username: Politricks

Post Number: 4100
Registered: 03-2008
Posted From: 75.75.78.185

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 11:30 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

"Overall there can be 20-25 percent of chance of error in the total no.of seats .. "

Ori denemma...ila cheppada PRANOY ROY? Mari ika idi cheyatam deniki waste kada...
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Eluri_kurradu
Side Hero
Username: Eluri_kurradu

Post Number: 5040
Registered: 02-2008
Posted From: 159.182.1.4

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 11:19 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

exit poll meed analysis endi adi kooda repu result ettukuni waste of waltair
Ekkado munigi ikkada tela
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Nippu
Junior Artist
Username: Nippu

Post Number: 773
Registered: 12-2008
Posted From: 24.6.24.202

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 11:18 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

ONE THING IS for sure .

MP seats lo cong ki ekkuva vachina .

Assembly lo matram cong ki MK kanna less seats vastayi .

if that is the case then cong and prp may join together .
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Machomegastar
Comedian
Username: Machomegastar

Post Number: 1541
Registered: 02-2008
Posted From: 208.105.1.254

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 11:04 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:

forget about alliance and look at cong ,tdp alone in 2004

cong 38.62
tdp 37.25


Now lets say PRP dented cong,tdp equally as per CNN-IBN (prp 14%)
let me deduct 7% each


2009:

cong 31.62
tdp 30.25


paapam commies+Trs ki 10% vote undhi 2004 lo.....sare valla balam taggipoyi only 80 out of 100 their own voters stayed with them now anukundam.....so now in 2009, TRS+COmmies are at worst case 8%


CONG 31.62
TDP 30.25

case lo ...TRS+COMMIES 8% ye kaaki etthukellindandi ?(read it in parakala seshavataram gaari abaayi's unique diction)vaallu evariki add aithe vaallu win avadam simplee kadaandi ?




OT I agree with ur analysis

ikkada Cong PRP ki loss ayina votes ni (mulsims nundi, some bc's oc's nundi techukunnadi)
ayithe tdp prp ki loss ayina votes ni fill cheyalekpoyinatkundi.

2004 lo telanagana sentiment bayanakaram ga vundi(endukante appdu real boomm chala takkuva, infact it is nill compared to 2005 ending to 2008) so hyd-rgr-half-medak, half-wgl, lf-nijaamabd, half-nlg lo voters antha tsr ki anti ga vesaremo
Praja Rajyam zindabad!!
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Dlm
Hero
Username: Dlm

Post Number: 10805
Registered: 04-2008
Posted From: 116.66.128.125

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:59 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

exit polls lo logics ethukuthunnara...
CBN is History - YSR is Present - Chiru is Future
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Indra
Side Hero
Username: Indra

Post Number: 9305
Registered: 12-2006
Posted From: 59.164.224.126

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:52 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:


ayina ndtv polls pichaa lite..kamas lo 65% votes bayatiki velthayi anta..intha kante comedy vundadhu...asaliki 10% velthe gr8
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Indra
Side Hero
Username: Indra

Post Number: 9303
Registered: 12-2006
Posted From: 59.164.224.126

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:50 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:

ika pothe 70 seats lo cong 0 votes aithe, migilina 224 lo allainces party la valla vachina votes kuda "CONG ALONE" khaata lo kalisinavi vuntaayi


yup correct ee kaani entha kalisi vuntayi maha ante..vaalu ekkada dead weak avi teesukoledhu alliances..
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42947
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:48 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Indra:

last yr picture loki teesukoni rakudadhu




NDTV somberi gaadu total ga last year % tho compare chesthunnadu...anduke nenu last year % teese cheptunnaa


ika pothe 70 seats lo cong 0 votes aithe, migilina 224 lo allainces party la valla vachina votes kuda "CONG ALONE" khaata lo kalisinavi vuntaayi
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Indra
Side Hero
Username: Indra

Post Number: 9301
Registered: 12-2006
Posted From: 59.164.224.126

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:46 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:

same this year reverse....tdp contested in less no of seats


last yr picture loki teesukoni rakudadhu cong ki tdp ki .5% ee diff anni
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Film_fan
Side Hero
Username: Film_fan

Post Number: 4673
Registered: 03-2008
Posted From: 81.138.131.153

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:45 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

nee ep analysis ikkade telusthundhi...cong contested around apprx 210+ seats adhe tdp 280+...ante cong ki 70 seats lo 0 no. of votes..andhuke voting % tagindhi..bala type analysis bhale chesthav
---

this is interesting.......
"Any one who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new" - Einstein
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Film_fan
Side Hero
Username: Film_fan

Post Number: 4672
Registered: 03-2008
Posted From: 81.138.131.153

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:44 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Newguy....

akkada clear ganey undhi ga overal prediction.....

am i missing something obvious?
"Any one who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new" - Einstein
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42946
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:44 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Indra:

cong contested around apprx 210+ seats adhe tdp 280+...




same this year reverse....tdp contested in less no of seats
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Indra
Side Hero
Username: Indra

Post Number: 9299
Registered: 12-2006
Posted From: 59.164.224.126

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:43 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:

cong 38.62
tdp 37.25


nee ep analysis ikkade telusthundhi...cong contested around apprx 210+ seats adhe tdp 280+...ante cong ki 70 seats lo 0 no. of votes..andhuke voting % tagindhi..bala type analysis bhale chesthav
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42945
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:41 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

cong 2004 : 38.62%
cong 2009 : 38% in assembly (cnn-ibn)

anti incumbency 1% kuda leda ? prp votesina kapu lu minimum 4 % kuda cong ki dent pettaledaa ? leka 2004 lanti worst time lo kuda TDP ki votesina vaallandaru 2009 lo TDP nunchi CONG ki maaripoyaara ?

magic edho jarigindhi aithe AP 2009 poll lo
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Newguy123
Side Hero
Username: Newguy123

Post Number: 5585
Registered: 01-2009
Posted From: 155.91.28.232

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:29 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Film_fan:

2004 error....naaku no idea newguy.....nenu figures choodali.....




http://www.thehindu.com/2004/04/28/stories/2004042809200100. htm

NDTV exit poll choodandi ikkada.. TDP coastal,RS lo baaga perform chastadi anta.. 80-105 seats ichadu.. reality half vachayi.. orissa yemo too close to call annadu, akkada emo BJD+BJP sweep chesindi..
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42944
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:27 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

forget about alliance and look at cong ,tdp alone in 2004

cong 38.62
tdp 37.25


Now lets say PRP dented cong,tdp equally as per CNN-IBN (prp 14%)
let me deduct 7% each


2009:

cong 31.62
tdp 30.25


paapam commies+Trs ki 10% vote undhi 2004 lo.....sare valla balam taggipoyi only 80 out of 100 their own voters stayed with them now anukundam.....so now in 2009, TRS+COmmies are at worst case 8%


CONG 31.62
TDP 30.25

case lo ...TRS+COMMIES 8% ye kaaki etthukellindandi ?(read it in parakala seshavataram gaari abaayi's unique diction)vaallu evariki add aithe vaallu win avadam simplee kadaandi ?
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42943
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:20 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Film_fan:

why so obvious brother......TDP nunchi raava?





TDP nunchi stunning 8% (i.e 22 out of every 100 TDP votes) votes PRP ki ichesaa bro..


Onlytruth:

7% adigaaru TDP nunchi PRP ki....7 kaadhu 8 teesukondi

Now tell me from where did PRP get remaining 9% vote ? (NDTV said PRP 17%,CNN-IBN said PRP 14%)

obvious ga congress nunche kadhaa........?



EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Newguy123
Side Hero
Username: Newguy123

Post Number: 5584
Registered: 01-2009
Posted From: 155.91.28.232

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:19 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Film_fan:

why so obvious brother......TDP nunchi raava?




7% calculated kada TDP nunchi..
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Film_fan
Side Hero
Username: Film_fan

Post Number: 4666
Registered: 03-2008
Posted From: 81.138.131.153

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:17 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

obvious ga congress nunche kadhaa........?

---

why so obvious brother......TDP nunchi raava?
"Any one who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new" - Einstein
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42942
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:16 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Balu:

OT Loksatta (2-4)% TDP votes ni lagindi ani anni papers lo vachhindi




L.S ki 3% vosthe adukku tinaali migilina anni party lu
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42941
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:15 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

so called national channel ANALYSTS 7% adigaaru TDP nunchi PRP ki....7 kaadhu 8 teesukondi

Now tell me from where did PRP get remaining 9% vote ? (NDTV said PRP 17%,CNN-IBN said PRP 14%)

obvious ga congress nunche kadhaa........?

i.e NDTV prakarame CONG nunchi PRP 9%-11% vote teesukundhi

ook....

CONG nunchi (thru TRS+COMMIES allaince) TDP ki vochina vote swing add chesthe CONG ki migilindenti chippaaa ?


PRP 9-11% dent
Alliance dent
still cong wins same no of seats as in 2004..............oh my god
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Film_fan
Side Hero
Username: Film_fan

Post Number: 4664
Registered: 03-2008
Posted From: 81.138.131.153

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:11 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

2004 lo kudana? karnataka,gujarat,UP assembly elections lo enduku tappu ayindi..anni established parties ye kada..
---

dont know much about that....

but other point to note here is that...anti-incumbancy.....calculatons are not working this time around.....also....for last year;s state elections......CM's who did well....have been retained.....

2004 error....naaku no idea newguy.....nenu figures choodali.....
"Any one who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new" - Einstein
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Balu
Side Hero
Username: Balu

Post Number: 2495
Registered: 01-2009
Posted From: 66.7.193.27

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:11 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Now TDP stands 37.25 % in 2009>>>>>

OT Loksatta (2-4)% TDP votes ni lagindi ani anni papers lo vachhindi !!

So Final ga 37.25- 3 = 34.25% < Cong % !!
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42940
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:10 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

2004 lo TDP ki vesina prati 100 mandilo 22 mandhi ee saari PRP or CONG ki jump kottinaaa .....TDP is ahead of CONGRESS

Only condition is allaince vote transfer 75% vundaali minimum

i.e Mahakootami Success aithe , my analysis wont go wrong in terms of %
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42939
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:05 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

TDP 37.25 + BJP 2.67 = 39.92


TDP on its own has 37.25 in 2004
Alliance valla 8% min add ayyindhi/avutundhi

* So now TDP stands @ 45.25

PRP valla kapu + bc llo stunning 8% vote loose ayyindhi anukundaam

i.e 2004 laanti time lo kuda TDP ki vesina voters lo 22%(8% out of 37% is ) ni vadilesthunnaa chaala liberal ga


enti ? 2004 lo TDP ki vote vesina prati 100 mandhilo 22 mandi eesari PRP ki vesaaru anukundaam



* Now TDP stands 37.25 % in 2009



ante................


ANTI INCUMBENCY VOTE okkatante okkati kuda TDP ki rakapoinaa TDP is ahead of CONG in terms of %.............
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Newguy123
Side Hero
Username: Newguy123

Post Number: 5580
Registered: 01-2009
Posted From: 155.91.28.232

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:04 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Cinejeevi:

one basic fact is whenever MLA and MP elections are held together cong performed well.




what about in 1999?
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Mamamiya786
Comedian
Username: Mamamiya786

Post Number: 1474
Registered: 06-2008
Posted From: 98.66.171.110

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:03 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:


pranay roy ki , meeku prasna entantee ? cong nunchi vellipoina aa rendu sections PRP ke vellaayaa ? r u kidding us?




OT ..oka sari pranoy roy video chudu ..clear ga telustundi ...
pade pade same thing cheppalsi vastunnadi...video chudu..pranay is very clear...
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Newguy123
Side Hero
Username: Newguy123

Post Number: 5579
Registered: 01-2009
Posted From: 155.91.28.232

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:03 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Film_fan:

my point is.....surveys have done well in the past with established parties.....




2004 lo kudana? karnataka,gujarat,UP assembly elections lo enduku tappu ayindi..anni established parties ye kada..
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Film_fan
Side Hero
Username: Film_fan

Post Number: 4663
Registered: 03-2008
Posted From: 81.138.131.153

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 10:01 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

election results sariga idevidhamga rakapothe kotha party ni sariga estimate cheyalekapoyam ane DLM chebutaru..
--
no brother....

idhi kotta parties effect varakey....

if we see....old parties vishayam lo surveys have done reasonably well.....


Nitish....is 81% satisfacton factor....but his percentage of votes are not at that level......

my point is.....surveys have done well in the past with established parties.....
"Any one who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new" - Einstein
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42938
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: 
Votes: 3 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:59 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Mamamiya786:

congress anti vote went to PRP




pls define congress anti vote here

here r two different sections OUT from CONGRESS....

1)Allaince
2)Anti incumbency + KAPU

pranay roy ki , meeku prasna entantee ? cong nunchi vellipoina aa rendu sections PRP ke vellaayaa ? r u kidding us?
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Cinejeevi
Comedian
Username: Cinejeevi

Post Number: 1260
Registered: 01-2008
Posted From: 65.244.125.146

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:58 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

one basic fact is whenever MLA and MP elections are held together cong performed well.

coming to voting percentages they never r directly proportional to no of seats obtained
naa toli santakam....
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42937
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:56 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

CONG kootami ki 48.89 % undhi 2004 lo....andulo 10.27 % TRS+COMMIES dhi....sare 20% of TRS,COMMIES voted CONG in 2009 anukundaam(though unlikely).......still congress is at loss of solid 8% just becoz of loosing allaince

* so now cong stands @ 40.89 %

next comes Kapu factor....

don't u think cong has lost min of 5% vote due to KAPUs ?

* so now cong stands @ 35.89 %

don't u think cong has lost min of 2% vote due to Anti Incumbency ?

* so now cong stands @ 33.89%

oook...personal benefit schemes valla 2004 lanti cong +ve time lo kudaaaa CONG ki vote veyyani vaallu oka 1% poni 2% 2009 lo cong ki vesaaru anukundaam......

* so now cong stands @ 35.8 % or say 36%
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Newguy123
Side Hero
Username: Newguy123

Post Number: 5577
Registered: 01-2009
Posted From: 155.91.28.232

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:55 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Film_fan:




election results sariga idevidhamga rakapothe kotha party ni sariga estimate cheyalekapoyam ane DLM chebutaru..
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Film_fan
Side Hero
Username: Film_fan

Post Number: 4662
Registered: 03-2008
Posted From: 81.138.131.153

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:52 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

appudu 61% vote ravali kada congress ki ..satisfy ayyi kuda vote veyaledu anega ardham..

---

no i dont think so....its about the new option available ......ek dham govt oppose aithey...CBN ke vasthai.....
"Any one who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new" - Einstein
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Guriginja
Side Hero
Username: Guriginja

Post Number: 8139
Registered: 02-2008
Posted From: 75.137.182.15

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:51 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Newguy123:

appudu 61% vote ravali kada congress ki ..satisfy ayyi kuda vote veyaledu anega ardham..






Guriginja:

kaadanatam ledu...that is where chiru helped congress/ysr...by splitting this anti incumbency....and also thanks to loksatta, bjp for doing that in several urban places and all over telengana.



YSR ZINDABAD...YSR 2009.
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Film_fan
Side Hero
Username: Film_fan

Post Number: 4661
Registered: 03-2008
Posted From: 81.138.131.153

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:51 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

AP lo anti incumbency is wrong word anukunta......as YSR's popularity is still intact....

its more to do with the super showing on congress in the last swing.....and compared to that and with chiru's influence there is a swing.....

vote against govt aithey.....YSR legichi poyevaadu.....


one thing is for sure....any survey we see...CBN didnt gain much.....as direct loss to YSR....infact he lost his base to chiru somewhat...
"Any one who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new" - Einstein
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Guriginja
Side Hero
Username: Guriginja

Post Number: 8138
Registered: 02-2008
Posted From: 75.137.182.15

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:49 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:

anti incumbency anedhi lekunda prapancham lone evvadu rule cheyyaledu...discussion anavasaram




kaadanatam ledu...that is where chiru helped congress/ysr...by splitting this anti incumbency....and also thanks to loksatta, bjp for doing that in several urban places and all over telengana.
YSR ZINDABAD...YSR 2009.
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Newguy123
Side Hero
Username: Newguy123

Post Number: 5576
Registered: 01-2009
Posted From: 155.91.28.232

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:49 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Guriginja:


61% are satisfied ante yemiti? where is the anit incumbancy factor...




appudu 61% vote ravali kada congress ki :-)..satisfy ayyi kuda vote veyaledu anega ardham..
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Mamamiya786
Comedian
Username: Mamamiya786

Post Number: 1473
Registered: 06-2008
Posted From: 98.66.171.110

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:48 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:

TRS loss
Commies loss
Kapus loss
YSR paina Anti Incumbency loss

inni factors "kalisi" okka seat tagginchaleva......




because of it they lost 5 seats whcih the allies won.

Nuvvu vere factors consider cheyatledu ..
Roy said CBN is not performing as expected and he clearly said that ..congress anti vote went to PRP and PRP got a about 7 percent vote from TDP , which inturn make Congress a winning side..

intaku minchi nenu cheppedi ledu ..same thing again adn again disc cheyalsi vastunnadi..
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Guriginja
Side Hero
Username: Guriginja

Post Number: 8137
Registered: 02-2008
Posted From: 75.137.182.15

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:48 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:

TRS,COMMIES vote PRP ki vellayaa ? r u kidding us ?




no kidding vote transfer is a joke..did not happen and looking at coastal (i don't know in telangana) commies vote polled more to congress than tdp....results analysis lo nuvve chusthav.
YSR ZINDABAD...YSR 2009.
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42936
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:48 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Guriginja:



61% are satisfied ante yemiti? where is the anit incumbancy factor...




anti incumbency anedhi lekunda prapancham lone evvadu rule cheyyaledu...discussion anavasaram
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42935
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:47 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Mamamiya786:

TRS commies velli poyarani exact ade number vote percentage vellalni guarantee emiti.




TRS,COMMIES lo 10%-20% cong thone vunnaaru anukunnaa cong has lost 8%-9% SOLIDLY
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42934
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:46 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Mamamiya786:

chinna correctobn most part of this vote went to PRP




TRS,COMMIES vote PRP ki vellayaa ? r u kidding us ?
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Guriginja
Side Hero
Username: Guriginja

Post Number: 8136
Registered: 02-2008
Posted From: 75.137.182.15

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:45 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:

YSR paina Anti Incumbency loss




61% are satisfied ante yemiti? where is the anit incumbancy factor...
YSR ZINDABAD...YSR 2009.
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Mamamiya786
Comedian
Username: Mamamiya786

Post Number: 1472
Registered: 06-2008
Posted From: 98.66.171.110

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:45 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:

TRS, Commies tappukuntene 10% vote loss undhi cong ki(sare.. TRS,commies lo 10% stayed back with cong anukunnaa 9% loss)

Where is kapu voters loss ? where is anti incumbency loss




that 11 percent vote includes allies vote and kapu vote .
TRS commies velli poyarani exact ade number vote percentage vellalni guarantee emiti.

interesting stats...IN telengana ..Telengana favour 50 percent and against 45 percent ..Un deicded 5 percent.

Congres might have retained part of TRS and commies vote..

Ni kista maina results ichhadani vuraka marchaku lekkalani...

H
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42933
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: 
Votes: 2 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:44 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

NDTV vaadi survey entha worst survey ante

CONG with TRS + Commies support + 9 years CBN anti wave tho.. 2004 lo vachina 29 seats ye , Ippudu 2009 lo kuda vosthaayi anta


TRS loss
Commies loss
Kapus loss
YSR paina Anti Incumbency loss

inni factors "kalisi" okka seat tagginchaleva.........fcukin wrong with pranay roy


asalu NDTV survey paina discussion okataa ? siggu chetu..rather i prefer sakshi exit polls which says 47 to tdp,12 to prp...lol
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Film_fan
Side Hero
Username: Film_fan

Post Number: 4660
Registered: 03-2008
Posted From: 81.138.131.153

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:43 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

i agree with mama miya about this error with small parties not getting under the survey catchement......

dorab supariwala the analyst at NDTV....and prannoy roy have been saying this right fromt he start because of the error they did with NTR.....at that time.....none of the surveys cacthed the NTR factor....infact they give max 10% in 1983....what happened after that was history......

in chiru's case....they went with....caution....but 18% is the best they could give.....and it is unlikely it can go better than that ani kooda cheppadu.......last night.....

If best case.....it turns 23% then total surprise result ravocchu......
"Any one who has never made a mistake has never tried anything new" - Einstein
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Mamamiya786
Comedian
Username: Mamamiya786

Post Number: 1471
Registered: 06-2008
Posted From: 98.66.171.110

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:40 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Mamamiya786:

a povudu MK ki vellakunda PRP ki vellaru at the same time MK nunchi 7 percent PRP ki vellindi




chinna correctobn most part of this vote went to PRP . vey less percentage went to MK ..and MK lost lot of vote about 7 percnet to PRP ..
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42932
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:37 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

2004:

CONG 38.62 + TRS 6.68 + Commies 3.59 = 48.89
TDP 37.25 + BJP 2.67 = 39.92



TRS, Commies tappukuntene 10% vote loss undhi cong ki(sare.. TRS,commies lo 10% stayed back with cong anukunnaa 9% loss)

Where is kapu voters loss ? where is anti incumbency loss ?
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Telugufan
Junior Artist
Username: Telugufan

Post Number: 354
Registered: 05-2008
Posted From: 12.13.141.101

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:34 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Mamamiya786:

congress ki alliance poyaru , kapulu poyaru ..a povudu MK ki vellakunda PRP ki vellaru at the same time MK nunchi 7 percent PRP ki vellindi .




alliance TDP tho vunaaye kadha PRP ki ela velathaye
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Mamamiya786
Comedian
Username: Mamamiya786

Post Number: 1470
Registered: 06-2008
Posted From: 98.66.171.110

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:31 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Onlytruth:

yes i agree....but funnily alliance swtich avadam valla add ayina vote share reflect kanivvaledhu seats wise kootami ki....cong ki alliance poyaaru,kapulu poyaaru....seats matram intact....logic less




congress ki alliance poyaru , kapulu poyaru ..a povudu MK ki vellakunda PRP ki vellaru at the same time MK nunchi 7 percent PRP ki vellindi ..Ei vidham ga congress ki upper hand ayyindi ani explain chesaduu ..niku akkada logic less emundi.Its the same case in TN

Niku nachhina points vunchi nacchani points pakkanedite ela bro..
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Onlytruth
Legend
Username: Onlytruth

Post Number: 42931
Registered: 01-2007
Posted From: 193.200.150.82

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:23 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Mamamiya786:

This is by comparing with last .time. and last time congress along with allies got more voting and automatically vote share will be less as the allies switches sides.




yes i agree....but funnily alliance swtich avadam valla add ayina vote share reflect kanivvaledhu seats wise kootami ki....cong ki alliance poyaaru,kapulu poyaaru....seats matram intact....logic less
EVM paina Rail gurthu sarigga kanapadaledhu voters ki - CHIRU
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Newguy123
Side Hero
Username: Newguy123

Post Number: 5569
Registered: 01-2009
Posted From: 155.91.28.232

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:07 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Mamamiya786:

Overall there can be 20-25 percent of chance of error in the total no.of seats ..




survey lo antha error vunte vaadu cheppedenti, evadaina chebutadu.. edo 5% error ante OK kaani..
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Sanjay
Junior Artist
Username: Sanjay

Post Number: 24
Registered: 03-2009
Posted From: 24.74.125.172

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 09:00 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Mamamiya786:


bottom line enti common man safe aa
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Guriginja
Side Hero
Username: Guriginja

Post Number: 8133
Registered: 02-2008
Posted From: 75.137.182.15

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 08:57 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

kasi vadaposesinattunnav..ins and outs if ndtv polls....
YSR ZINDABAD...YSR 2009.
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Mamamiya786
Comedian
Username: Mamamiya786

Post Number: 1469
Registered: 06-2008
Posted From: 98.66.171.110

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 08:50 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

OT you made comments on congress loosing 11 percent of vote share ..
This is by comparing with last .time. and last time congress along with allies got more voting and automatically vote share will be less as the allies switches sides.
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Mamamiya786
Comedian
Username: Mamamiya786

Post Number: 1468
Registered: 06-2008
Posted From: 98.66.171.110

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 06:45 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

OT , you made fun of the caste percentages that were given by Pranay roy.

But i guess those percentages are very much likely , because it is MP elections.
Lot of kammas might have voted for congress or prp because candidates..

same might not be true for MLAs .
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of page Link to this message

Mamamiya786
Comedian
Username: Mamamiya786

Post Number: 1467
Registered: 06-2008
Posted From: 98.66.171.110

Rating: N/A
Votes: 0 (Vote!)

Posted on Thursday, May 14, 2009 - 06:44 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

18 percent is the minimum that chiranjeevi will get. ( There is a chance that it can be 16) ..

PRP can go up to 22 to 23 percent.. That translate to a couple of seats.

Exit polls usually go wrong with the smaller parties aka newly started parties.

Overall there can be 20-25 percent of chance of error in the total no.of seats ..

With 25 years of experience this the best acurate survey that has been done by NDTV..

---

All of the above are pranoy roys comments...

Add Your Message Here
Post:
Bold text Italics Underline Create a hyperlink Insert a clipart image HASH(0x8986648){Movie Clipart}
Show / Hide regular icons selection options

Click on following links to open cliparts by Alphabetical Order

 A   B   C   D   E   F   G   H   I   J   K   L   M  

 N   O   P   Q   R   S   T   U   V   W   X   Y   Z  

Show / Hide Filmy icons selection options

Click on following links to open cliparts by Alphabetical Order

 A   B   C   D   E   F   G   H   I   J   K   L   M  

 N   O   P   Q   R   S   T   U   V   W   X   Y   Z  


Username: Posting Information:
This is a public posting area. Enter your username and password if you have an account. Otherwise, enter your full name as your username and leave the password blank. Your e-mail address is optional.
Password:
E-mail:
Options: Enable HTML code in message
Automatically activate URLs in message
Action: