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Calling JAI_YCP, Rocket2..chinna doub...

Chalanachithram.com DB » New TF Industry Related » Archive through September 20, 2018 » Calling JAI_YCP, Rocket2..chinna doubt abt trade war « Previous Next »
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True_indian
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 09:19 pm:       


Rajusk:

China vodu nee interest naaki vaddu..naaki paisal naaki icheyi ante enti paristhithi..

they hold $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries




US kattanu emi peekutavu ante, kya hoga uncle
.those who are serious about their watches display them prominently, those who are more concerned with style and branding present you with aircraft carriers and hide their watches.
 

Awara1984
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 09:08 pm:       

Basic labor*
 

Awara1984
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 09:08 pm:       

China those it is always one way street

Kinda example ichinattu taking some tech transfer for opening up the market is ok, may be win win for both thought he percentage may vary on whose favor it is more

But ide China vere countries ki loan istunnav for infra projects etc majority or sometimes all contracts to go to Chinese companies so except basic laboratory nothing will be involved from the other countries like Pakistan and Sri Lanka

China daggara loan teesukoni Chinese contractors money return icheyatame

In the end only asset untadi aa country ki with huge debt, aa asset aa debt interest ki Aina match chese returns iste atleast they will survive otherwise they have to hand it over back to Chinese company like what Sri Lanka did with their port
 

Rocketk2
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 02:07 pm:       


Jai_ycp:

USA is not gold based economy. so repoddhuna legichi print chesi ichestadu. china cant afford it.


Damn!! That was gangsta !! :-)

Rajusk, China can do that but there is a possibility that it will take bigger hit. As US is major reserve currency .. Imagine dollar get weaker.. suddenly us exports will start looking profitable!! People can buy US product over Chinese product . Now China has to compete over quality

Ee loopu both sides chala collateral damage jariguthundhi.. if China want to hurt Us, they just need to stop buying new loan. It will pinch enough to make US get concerned . Indhuke world markets anni tension tho wait chesthundi!!

Na uddesam prakaram .. both parties will save face and back off!! To much at stakes ..


Ycp brother, here is the threat that you are overlooking . Us dollar is the reserve currency. Ante India and China trade chesukovante dollar use chesukovali. Imagine if they form a bilateral partnership to bypass dollar( idhi jaragadhu but I am posing a hypothetical question)

Few days back, I gave you a link where Venezuela publishing oil prices in Yuan. In grand scheme of things it is nothing but it gives a directions for long talked over communist economies to shun Us dollar

Since US is reserve currency, it maintains capital account surplus and borrowing at low rate. If trade war put a dent to that.. suddenly you are looking at a default. Long way to even think of getting there but weirder things have happened..
L
 

Rocketk2
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 01:43 pm:       


Jai_ycp:

The problem with china is it is not a two way street. it puts restriction on american products, IP transfers, market availability is a sham.


It is a two way street actually.. built on a model to strengthen their technical capabilities.
With respect to thread initiator, I will not get into political nitty gritties ..
America needs Chinese labor and chinese market. That is their leverage..
similarly Chinese labor needs American consumer. That is America’s levarage..
Both are battling on that see-saw

iP theft vadiledham... we will stick to IP transfer.
The Chinese model is , if you want to sell in China you have to share your any one portion of your IP with China . For example, when US mobile manufactures are vying for Chinese market, they transferred 2G technology and were able to get access to Chinese market. By that time US is well advanced and moved out of 2G. Chinese used that to (almost) catch up with the US inspite of significant US advantage .. how can this be wrong from Chinese point of view. They leveraged their market and gained technical advantage..

I would not call it a sham. It is a business model to gain advantage
 

Rocketk2
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 01:31 pm:       


Jai_ycp:

The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $335.4 billion in 2017. China is currently our largest goods trading partner with $635.4 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2017. Goods exports totaled $129.9 billion; goods imports totaled $505.5 billion.



This is very inaccurate picture discounting the modern day supply chain. The trade deficit between Is and China cannot be measured like this . With China being the final step in manufacturing process, this calculation assumes total cost to China..
once the tariffs are imposed , that will further imbalance other suppliers into China which will lead to adverse affects ..
 

Rocketk2
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 01:16 pm:       


Lolakulu:

my assumption is that whoever US companies that source goods from chinese vendor will get impact from these tariffs. this does't matter where the goods are sourced as the main supplier lies in china. these tariffs does not apply to US companies that only manufacture goods on china land and import into US. correct me if i'm wrong as this also confusing.


interesting question .. technically in case of any other country, they are also exports. So should be affected by tariff.. however, China business model koncham different.

A company can only manufacture in China , if they don't sell in China. Otherwise, the cannot directly participate. They have to go thru a joint venture with Chinese company.
So ee aspect lo chusthe, that product may be exempt from tariff.
I am not 100% sure how this works
 

Lolakulu
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 01:10 pm:       


Jai_ycp:

The problem with china is it is not a two way street. it puts restriction on american products, IP transfers, market availability is a sham.




agree on this point. they restricted almost all US companies including disney and fox studios. china only allow 30 to 40 US movies to be released in china every year anukunta. movies meeda kuda restriction vallu ayithe.
 

Jai_ycp
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 01:10 pm:       


Dma:

we will see... how we can tackle china's (businesses) way of exploiting the loop holes like operating from different countries.



setup putup lu cheyyatamu long term process. they probably will try to wait out trumps term. current ego maintenance kosamu they will continue trade war but in year or two an agreement will be made.
 

Dma
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 01:07 pm:       

we will see... how we can tackle china's (businesses) way of exploiting the loop holes like operating from different countries.
Jai Andhra!! Jai Jai Andhra!!!
 

Jai_ycp
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 01:02 pm:       


Dma:



The problem with china is it is not a two way street. it puts restriction on american products, IP transfers, market availability is a sham. starting from 1990s, all presidents both dem and rep were negotiating with china to be fair. every time they promise something but nothing ever gets done. Due to business lobby pressure, no president tried to solve it other than issuing empty threats. trump is trying through tariffs. it is like stick and carrot method.

If the end result, china releases its market form american business without threat of IP damage, it is a win for USA. in that scenario, trade deficit will decrease.
 

Dma
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:57 pm:       

>> But China’s leaders feel they cannot back down. They have presented the trade war as part of a broader effort by the United States to contain China’s rise.

If the goal is just to stop China - then ok. We will find some other country who can provide us with cheap labour.
Jai Andhra!! Jai Jai Andhra!!!
 

Jai_ycp
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:57 pm:       

The U.S. goods and services trade deficit with China was $335.4 billion in 2017. China is currently our largest goods trading partner with $635.4 billion in total (two way) goods trade during 2017. Goods exports totaled $129.9 billion; goods imports totaled $505.5 billion.

Just see the top trading partners with china
United States: US$431.7 billion (19% of total Chinese exports)
Hong Kong: $281 billion (12.4%)
Japan: $137.4 billion (6%)
South Korea: $102.8 billion (4.5%)
Vietnam: $72.1 billion (3.2%)
Germany: $71.2 billion (3.1%)
India: $67.9 billion (3%)
Indulo HK china vadi pet kabatti vadhileisna, next japan, S. korea depend on USA not only economy but from political and geographical stability. veelu china tho cut chestaru.

see the difference between other countriers and USA. china ki biggest client USA.
 

Dma
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:54 pm:       


Jai_ycp:

as of today america leads.




as of now is the key...

How long this facade can sustain?
Jai Andhra!! Jai Jai Andhra!!!
 

Dma
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:53 pm:       


Jai_ycp:

we will find another country who is ready to give it. before you decide who wins or looses, first describe, what is the battle? what is USDA pain Point? what does it want to achieve?




so... we r just fighting with China?

No issue importing from other cheap countries?

Then, it is ok.


As someone said below - china vere country velli, akkada nunchee operate chedani guarantee enti? like Indian IT companies operating from China and Fillippines.
Jai Andhra!! Jai Jai Andhra!!!
 

Jai_ycp
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:52 pm:       


Dma:

But, rest of the world also spends. China can recover in other areas kadaa...



ipatiki russia, iran, EU, canada, mexico anni countries todakotti silent ayyayi. check my link with NYT about how china is suffering. as of today america leads.
 

Jai_ycp
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:50 pm:       


Dma:

hina lo monthly labor (with ppl working 12 hr days) - oka 300-500 vuntundi.

20% tarriff penchina, kuda locally made would still cost more.
Making locally is onl;y possible with automation and robots, which is definitely a solution and adds more profits to US companies. However, this would NOT result in any significant jobs - because - manual labor tho manufacture cheste, it would still cost more than the china imports including tariffs.



we will find another country who is ready to give it. before you decide who wins or looses, first describe, what is the battle? what is USDA pain Point? what does it want to achieve?
 

Dma
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:50 pm:       


Jai_ycp:

"China was built on american spending"




was built. True.

Endukante - okappudu US okkate spend chesedi.

But, rest of the world also spends. China can recover in other areas kadaa...
Jai Andhra!! Jai Jai Andhra!!!
 

Dma
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:48 pm:       


Uno:

If tariffs are increased,the cost of importing from China will be same as buying the item locally,so imports may be replaced by sourcing the item locally




China lo monthly labor (with ppl working 12 hr days) - oka 300-500 vuntundi.

20% tarriff penchina, kuda locally made would still cost more.


Making locally is onl;y possible with automation and robots, which is definitely a solution and adds more profits to US companies. However, this would NOT result in any significant jobs - because - manual labor tho manufacture cheste, it would still cost more than the china imports including tariffs.

Not to mention - the retaliation tarriffs from other countries make US companies life miserable to sell their good (combining with String $$$$)

Net Effect is - for us in US - the tax payers.



May be this is left thinking and lack of knowledge of how economics work.

Calling experts like jai_ycp and likes to help us understand how this theory is wrong and how US can gain from this situation.
Jai Andhra!! Jai Jai Andhra!!!
 

Lolakulu
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:48 pm:       


Rajusk:

China vodu nee interest naaki vaddu..naaki paisal naaki icheyi ante enti paristhithi..

they hold $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries




AFAIK chinese hold treasury bonds which have lock in period and funds released in allowance in yearly manner kada. ippudu unna USD high strength and local interst rates ki secondary market lo kuda US treasury bonds ki full demand anukuntunna. i may be wrong on this.
 

Jai_ycp
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:46 pm:       


Rajusk:

China vodu nee interest naaki vaddu..naaki paisal naaki icheyi ante enti paristhithi..

they hold $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries



USA is not gold based economy. so repoddhuna legichi print chesi ichestadu. china cant afford it.
 

Jai_ycp
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:45 pm:       


Chantichanti:



You cant tax anyway you want but the price becomes unmanageable. as someone nicely put
"China was built on american spending". 1971 mundu china WTO rakamundu ippati situation chudu. How they cheated and looted telsthundhi. china is a threat not only to USA but to other developed, developing nations like india. america is cash cow to china.

chian meedha NYT article.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/18/business/china-trade-war- retaliate.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Home page
 

Lolakulu
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:45 pm:       


Rocketk2:




my assumption is that whoever US companies that source goods from chinese vendor will get impact from these tariffs. this does't matter where the goods are sourced as the main supplier lies in china. these tariffs does not apply to US companies that only manufacture goods on china land and import into US. correct me if i'm wrong as this also confusing.
 

Rajusk
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:44 pm:       


Rocketk2:

China can increase . But Dhani valla demand tagguhundhi. So it will impact economy in general. You have to spend more money to buy the same thing. So less money to spread over into locAl economy. Alternative is to look for a local substitute. But this doesn't work in long term




China vodu nee interest naaki vaddu..naaki paisal naaki icheyi ante enti paristhithi..

they hold $1.2 trillion of US Treasuries
 

Dma
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:41 pm:       

https://money.cnn.com/2018/09/19/news/companies/walmart-tari ffs-trump-china/index.html
Jai Andhra!! Jai Jai Andhra!!!
 

Dma
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:40 pm:       

"Either consumers will pay more, suppliers will receive less, retail margins will be lower, or consumers will buy fewer products or forego purchases altogether," Walmart warned


basically government gets the money in the name of tarrifs and everybody else pays price for it
Jai Andhra!! Jai Jai Andhra!!!
 

Rocketk2
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:34 pm:       


Chantichanti:

Naaku oka chinna doubt vundi. No mudslinging in this thread please

China ki US ki, let us say 500B trade deficit vundi. So,
1. US China nunchi vache goods ki 20% tariffs penchadu anuko. An item which costs 100 would become 120
2. China vaadu retaliate ayyi alage chesadu anuko
3. US taxes all chinese goods worth for 500B
4. Can china just not increase the tariffs to 200% and 300% so on to match the tariffs imposed by USA

Am I missing something here?


China can increase . But Dhani valla demand tagguhundhi. So it will impact economy in general. You have to spend more money to buy the same thing. So less money to spread over into locAl economy. Alternative is to look for a local substitute. But this doesn't work in long term

Both parties will get affected but who ever has longer pockets can survive longer enough to pull down other into submission ( favorable partnership).
One-off ..trade conflicts are not dangerous but all out trade war is .. China will target the goods that affect US economy.

When two largest economies fight , there will be lot of casualties.. general ga ivvi negotiations tho deal avvali

Also .. this is only goods deficit we are talking about. There are several other variables like services economy , capital account deficits and all.
 

Uno
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 12:01 pm:       


Chantichanti:




If tariffs are increased,the cost of importing from China will be same as buying the item locally,so imports may be replaced by sourcing the item locally
However theoretically it looks good ,but practically there are methods/shortcuts to avoid this.
For example:Already Chinese companies are moving their units to neighboring countries like Vietnam.They will produce 20% in third countries and mix the remaining 80% with those made in China and export through third country
 

Chantichanti
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 11:45 am:       


Miniontada:

. its not like that




mari ela?
 

Miniontada
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 11:45 am:       

no .. its not like that
Laksha Kotla Jagan Kothaga Rekka Loche raa :D
PS: Appatlo Methanithodugu aka softwear
 

Chantichanti
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Posted on Wednesday, September 19, 2018 - 11:43 am:       

Naaku oka chinna doubt vundi. No mudslinging in this thread please

China ki US ki, let us say 500B trade deficit vundi. So,
1. US China nunchi vache goods ki 20% tariffs penchadu anuko. An item which costs 100 would become 120
2. China vaadu retaliate ayyi alage chesadu anuko
3. US taxes all chinese goods worth for 500B
4. Can china just not increase the tariffs to 200% and 300% so on to match the tariffs imposed by USA

Am I missing something here?

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