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India's Demonetization moving in the ...

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Teluguhero
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Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2017 - 11:22 am:       


Filmbuff:

debba ala thagilindhi...services PMI also came out...indha




As expected and its temporary.
 

Pawanfanz
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Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2017 - 06:12 am:       

comedians
 

Filmbuff
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Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2017 - 06:09 am:       


Awara1984:

every last year december it went down you can change the dates and can see yourself

is that also due to demontization

may be economic experts can confirm




2012,2013,2014 data choodu...i know the data is not palatable....but debba ala thagilindhi...services PMI also came out...indha...

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/economy/indian-services-act ivity-contracts-for-second-monthdecember_8207081.html

"Business confidence among service providers plunged to one of the lowest in the series' 11-year history, suggesting that an imminent rebound from the rupee-demonetisation downturn is unlikely," De Lima said.

A composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services, fell to 47.6 in December from 49.1, its lowest in over three years.
 

Awara1984
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Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2017 - 05:37 am:       

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/manufacturing-pmi

every last year december it went down you can change the dates and can see yourself

is that also due to demontization

may be economic experts can confirm
 

Filmbuff
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Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2017 - 02:35 am:       

Two months - no ATM, no bank



http://www.livemint.com/Money/HcLLVGtMK8NEKktF2AvNfJ/Cash-cr unch-leads-to-biggest-drop-in-private-sector-activity.html

Heading in the right direction, downwards on a steep hill..
 

Kadapanagfan
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Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2017 - 02:33 am:       

Ippudu Q's annni tagggay ley

Last month first weeek sacharu janalu

Ika limits teseyyyali GOVT mundu laaaaaga withdrwl limits teesestey anni industries koooda normal ki vastay
 

Kkd
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Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2017 - 02:30 am:       

i went to branch first time after Nov8....i felt it is convinient and better to go to nearest branch....vadu 2000 tho baatu....naaku chillara ki 50 katta, 10 katta lu ichadu....100s levu aipoyayi annadu.
 

Raman
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Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2017 - 02:20 am:       


Stalwart:

Anni banks, ATM vadha mundhu laanti paristhithi vochindhi...


ante enti ??
ninna 15-20 min attindi to withdraw 4500 antaku mundu max 1 min
ee sari just to avoid 2k notes kurrallu 3 trasactions sesi visigistunnaru 1900 +1900 + 600 antu
 

Stalwart
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Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2017 - 02:17 am:       

Anni banks, ATM vadha mundhu laanti paristhithi vochindhi...
qa{New_user,Inkosari personal comment cheste, cheppu theguddi. Be in your limits.}
 

V1234
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Posted on Wednesday, January 04, 2017 - 01:57 am:       

bongem kaadu ..
worst & failureofthe decade anthe...
blank = black= block
 

Teluguhero
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Posted on Tuesday, January 03, 2017 - 01:52 pm:       


Rocketk2:

Currency "Reform" Under India's Narendra Modi: Wrecking The Economy To Save It?




Exclusive report card-50 days deadline over today was demonetization worth it ?

http://postcard.news/exclusive-report-card-50-days-deadline- over-today-was-demonetization-worth-it/
 

Rocketk2
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Posted on Tuesday, January 03, 2017 - 11:21 am:       

Here is another article form Doug bandow!


Currency "Reform" Under India's Narendra Modi: Wrecking The Economy To Save It?

http://www.forbes.com/sites/dougbandow/2017/01/03/currency-r eform-under-indias-narendra-modi-wrecking-the-economy-to-sav e-it/#1dc82d2713f0
 

Emc2
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Posted on Monday, January 02, 2017 - 10:00 am:       

bendable for haters

starting nunchi ide chepthunna, wait cheyandi ra ani, okate puli dance
 

Teluguhero
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Posted on Monday, January 02, 2017 - 08:55 am:       

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/12/30/indias-de monetisation-50-days-in-not-perfect-but-moving-in-the-right- direction/#44e72cbe52bd

India's Demonetization 50 Days In - Not Perfect But Moving In The Right Direction

Tim Worstall

We're just hitting the 50 day stage in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign to move India to a less cash, if not a cash less, society. Part of this was demonetization, the taking of the old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes out of circulation. That was 86% of the money supply by value that had to cycle through the banks, either to be exchanged in limited numbers for the new Rs 500 and Rs 2,000 notes or to be deposited into banks. There is distinct controversy about whether this is all worth it and if we look at this one specific action in isolation perhaps not. However, as part of the general campaign it is, as I've been saying, a most welcome addition.

This thus is complaining too much:

The procedure would cost at least $1,500, far more than what she and her husband had in their bank account. But with India in the grip of a severe currency shortage since the government invalidated 86% of the cash in circulation on Nov. 8, the couple couldn’t scrape together even $100 for transportation to the hospital.

Banks in their farming region have been slow to receive new bills, dispensing at most $30 to a few customers before closing their doors, leaving masses to walk away empty-handed. Like most rural Indians, the couple did not possess a checkbook or debit card.

Boinavad’s father decided to sell his two buffaloes, but the buyer asked him to wait a few days because he couldn’t find cash either.

It didn’t come in time. Boinavad’s pain worsened for several days until she died at her parents’ home Dec. 13 in Nanded, 300 miles east of Mumbai.

“If not for demonetization” — the name for the government’s policy — “she would still be with us,” said Boinavad’s cousin, Sanjeev Halde.

It is of course possible that this specific death can and even should be blamed upon demonetization. But that a poor rural Indian dies for lack of heart surgery is not such a rare occurrence that we can confidently blame it upon demonetization. Yes, we know what is being said but still.

The Wall Street Journal has a nice selection of the mind-boggling numbers involved here.

The number of users Paytm, India’s largest mobile-payment company, said this month it has added since the government’s decision to scrap the notes on Nov. 8.

That's certainly a bit of a push towards the idea of a less cash society. And many are wondering whether the chaos has all been worth it:



Tim Worstall , CONTRIBUTOR
I have opinions about economics, finance and public policy.

Opinions expressed by Forbes Contributors are their own.
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I'm a Fellow at the Adam Smith Institute in London, a writer here and there on this and that and strangely, one of the global experts on the metal scandium, one of the rare earths. An odd thing to be but someone does have to be such and in this flavour of our universe I am. I have written for The Times, Daily Telegraph, Express, Independent, City AM, Wall Street Journal, Philadelphia Inquirer and online for the ASI, IEA, Social Affairs Unit, Spectator, The Guardian, The Register and Techcentralstation. I've also ghosted pieces for several UK politicians in many of the UK papers, including the Daily Sport.
The author is a Forbes contributor. The opinions expressed are those of the writer.

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An Indian man displays old invalid currency notes as he stands outside the Reserve Bank of India in New Delhi on December 30, 2016. (Credit: Money Sharma/AFP/Getty Images)

We're just hitting the 50 day stage in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign to move India to a less cash, if not a cash less, society. Part of this was demonetization, the taking of the old Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes out of circulation. That was 86% of the money supply by value that had to cycle through the banks, either to be exchanged in limited numbers for the new Rs 500 and Rs 2,000 notes or to be deposited into banks. There is distinct controversy about whether this is all worth it and if we look at this one specific action in isolation perhaps not. However, as part of the general campaign it is, as I've been saying, a most welcome addition.

This thus is complaining too much:

The procedure would cost at least $1,500, far more than what she and her husband had in their bank account. But with India in the grip of a severe currency shortage since the government invalidated 86% of the cash in circulation on Nov. 8, the couple couldn’t scrape together even $100 for transportation to the hospital.

Banks in their farming region have been slow to receive new bills, dispensing at most $30 to a few customers before closing their doors, leaving masses to walk away empty-handed. Like most rural Indians, the couple did not possess a checkbook or debit card.

Boinavad’s father decided to sell his two buffaloes, but the buyer asked him to wait a few days because he couldn’t find cash either.

It didn’t come in time. Boinavad’s pain worsened for several days until she died at her parents’ home Dec. 13 in Nanded, 300 miles east of Mumbai.

“If not for demonetization” — the name for the government’s policy — “she would still be with us,” said Boinavad’s cousin, Sanjeev Halde.

It is of course possible that this specific death can and even should be blamed upon demonetization. But that a poor rural Indian dies for lack of heart surgery is not such a rare occurrence that we can confidently blame it upon demonetization. Yes, we know what is being said but still.

The Wall Street Journal has a nice selection of the mind-boggling numbers involved here.

The number of users Paytm, India’s largest mobile-payment company, said this month it has added since the government’s decision to scrap the notes on Nov. 8.

That's certainly a bit of a push towards the idea of a less cash society. And many are wondering whether the chaos has all been worth it:

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Despite those problems, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said his Nov. 8 demonetization decree succeeded in uncovering tax evasion and cracking down on graft. The Indian government is urging patience, insisting it's playing a long game that will eventually modernize Indian society and benefit the poor.

So far, despite the widespread inconvenience and costs, most of the country's 1.25 billion citizens appear to be taking Modi's word for it.

I might have done as much as any other reporter outside India to cover this issue and given that I report on matters economic I can see a little deeper into the story than many others. No, not because I'm a better reporter (I'm not) but because I've the hinterland in economic policy to be able to see what is being aimed at.

Along the way I've pointed out that most of those bank notes being cancelled have been deposited in bank accounts. This is lowering interest rates and also inflation. That the process is likely to shrink India's GDP in the short term but that's by no means certain. That the real background issue is really all about Adam Smith. And that in the medium term this will boost India's reported GDP, without a doubt, but possibly that won't be important in the slightest.

And to come back to the major and important point. Is demonetization, as just demonetization, a great success? No, it isn't, and it never would have been. The aim is to crack down upon black money in the Indian economy. To get everything moved into the licit and taxed economy. Both so it can be taxed and also so that the pernicious effects of bribes and favors which so distort the economy can be limited. The reason it never was going to have much effect is that the major distortions here are not in cash rupees. Seriously rich people are in land, or gold, or dollars, or Switzerland. It's very much the small scale stuff that is taking place in Rs 1,000 notes. No, really, vast black market transactions do not take place with piles of $15 bills.

So am I therefore saying that it's all a waste? No, not at all, for it needs to be seen as part of a much more general campaign. This is but a skirmish in that campaign. And what is being tried is to get the majority of the population to believe that the system, the economic game, might not be easy but it is, roughly and around and about, fair. As I've said before this is the most fundamental of all of the "institutions" which economists shout is essential for economic development to occur. Even at the most trivial level it determines whether there will be economic growth or not. Sure, of course no one is going to put billions into a new manufacturing plant in Bangalore to make Apple iPhones unless they think the government (or even not the government but in the form of dacoits) will let them keep both the factory and any profits stemming from it. But that chai wallah eyeing the investment into the chapati attachment to his stand also needs to believe that the foregone consumption now will be worth the stream of profits in the future. There just does have to be a general belief that the game is roughly fair. No one needs to believe that it's easy, but investment will only happen, the striving which creates economic growth will only occur, when there is that general belief that hard work and a bit of luck will lead somewhere.

Development specialists regularly complain about the short sightedness of certain parts of sub-Saharan Africa. They not realizing that generations of warlords and might makes right have meant that having very short term horizons is the correct way to act--why defer to invest when any profit is likely to be stolen?

Thus I think the true value of demonetization. A very public showing to the population at large that Modi and Jaitley are gonna go get 'em. The specific effectiveness of the demonetization campaign itself isn't all that important. It's the psychological effect in general which is.

The three actions which I think are going to be important in specific senses are first the chasing after benami (ie, nameless, or bought in nominee names) properties. They are one of the great tax free sinks of black money inside India. The second is the manner in which this is all tied into bank accounts (other than wallet sized amounts for an average middle class person, the only way to exchange old notes is through a bank account).

Worth a little more on this. India currently has much of the population unbanked, especially out in rural areas. There has been a large campaign to get everyone in the country, or at least one person per household, with a bank account. Some claim this has been reached but not really, not when we include dormant and duplicate accounts. There's about one account each for the number of households but that's not the same as stating that each household has an active account. Partly this is to get more of the economy into the formal sector and thus taxable. But there's a more important reason here. The current welfare system is wildly expensive and inefficient and riddled with both sloth and corruption. It involves the government purchasing crops, storing them, moving them around and then distributing them to the poor who deserve them. For decades we have been regaled with stories about diversion onto private markets of the dole of grain. The warehouses full that rot through sloth or incompetence (and a favorite, claiming a a warehouse full has rotted and selling the stock on said private markets).

Absolutely everyone knows that this system would be better replaced by simply giving money to poor people. Also that sending bureaucrats off into the wilds with satchels full of cash to distribute is unlikely to work well. What is needed is that everyone is banked so that welfare can be a simple series of bank transfers to poor people. This has been under construction for some time now but from what we're seeing demonetization has given the whole effort a good kick in the pants. To the future benefit of the Indian economy, the inefficiencies of that goods welfare system are a terrible drain on the rest of the economy.

The final part is something I've only heard about through the grapevine. This is gossip, no more. But useful gossip all the same. Starting in 12 months time the Swiss banks will be sharing information with the Indian government on those Indian citizens who have accounts there. That does strike rather harder at significant amounts of black money. And what I'm hearing is that this is stampeding rich Indians into actually getting proper tax advice for the first time. No, this doesn't quite mean that they are about to pay all and every tax that could possibly be due. But people who used to rely upon the hawala system to entirely ignore the tax laws are now looking for legal ways in which to reduce, rather than not have at all, their tax bills.

That is, the offshore money is beginning to move from tax evasion to tax avoidance which is indeed an advance in people obeying the law.

One way of thinking about all of the above is that I'm saying that demonetization is the side show, the public play if you like, while the important things about black money are going on elsewhere. And that is one way to read it if you wish. However, I regard it the other way around. I think it's much more important that everyone thinks the game is roughly fair than I do worry about a few scofflaws not paying taxes. Thus it might well be the benami laws, or the Swiss banks, which are more important in raising tax revenues. But to me it is the creation of the confidence which leads to that chai wallah investing in the chapati stand which is what will grow the economy and thus the demonetization, precisely as that piece of public theatre, which is the most important part of the entire campaign.

It's most obviously not perfect, demonetization, and there's no way at all that sufficient notes will be ready by tomorrow (the Indian bank note printing industry just isn't large enough). But correctly viewed it's a vital part of India's development path.

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