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Oil will go down more

Chalanachithram.com DB » New TF Industry Related » Archive through January 17, 2016 » Oil will go down more « Previous Next »
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Vja2va
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 06:03 pm:       


Emc2:

you have valid point




Madyalo Dubai currency padinappudu saintesh oil wells akkada baga konnaru.. So full grip on oil pain..
 

Emc2
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 01:12 pm:       


Saint:

now their reserves are down and hence pulling money from their investments world wide. so is the blood bath in the markets...




you have valid point
 

Vjawarrior
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 12:51 pm:       


Inquisitive:

Telangana/Hyderabad comments that are over the top


ivaaa....konni saarlu kurollaki counters....konni saarlu comedy...konni saarlu nijamgaane udvegam....
 

Inquisitive
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 12:42 pm:       


Raman:

prapanchamlo oil antamayipote athivadam tellalism kuda antamavuddi ani evaro sepparu db lo



It is a delicate situation. It is true that ISIS gets a big chunk of its money from Oil, I am happy about them losing revenues due to crude oil crash. However, I am also worried that the crash in oil might create more unemployment in countries like Nigeria and thus result in more terrorism!
"Sakshi is a most balanced and independent media. This has no affiliation with any political party," Jagan had said. Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/news/article/sakshi-retelecasts- story-omits-antisonia-remarks/701963
 

Inquisitive
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 12:40 pm:       


Vjawarrior:

inquisitive...very well explained bro



Thank you warrior bro...I must appreciate your good stock predictions too...unlike your Telangana/Hyderabad comments that are over the top, your stock predictions seem to have a fair amount of accuracy.
"Sakshi is a most balanced and independent media. This has no affiliation with any political party," Jagan had said. Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/news/article/sakshi-retelecasts- story-omits-antisonia-remarks/701963
 

Vjawarrior
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 12:17 pm:       


Saint:


As per goldman sachs, Oil bull run will start in the secnd half of the year...


nuvvu cheppe maata batti...oil bull run ni marchipovachi emo...
inka 25-40 range oscillate avuddemo mamri oil
 

Saint
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 12:14 pm:       

according to CIO of ICICIDirect, these oil countries when they had surplus money since 2008, invested into equities in other counttries n other investments..now their reserves are down and hence pulling money from their investments world wide. so is the blood bath in the markets...

Market bloodbath will continue further until this oil mess settles down.

As per goldman sachs, Oil bull run will start in the secnd half of the year...
 

Theaviator
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 12:11 pm:       

Oil, not anymore about Saudi and its Opec allies vs US shale/ Russia/ Iran.
History is history, times are changing for ever going forward. Supply glut will prevail and Consumption will keep falling (world first time witnessing). world need a new gigantic consumer (may be india?? from 2025)

Once top importer, US has become net exported (US lifted 4 decade ban on oil export last month) and present largest importer China comsuption falling and falling and it will sleep.

Shanghai Composite and Brent crude prices are directly proportional now (both down 3.5%). Shanghai will keep falling.

Oil is not an economy of arabs anymore, they will bleed like jasmine revolution, big brothers will fall. US shale boom will also pause (US rig count fell by 68%).

Still consumer can enjoy low prices for solid 5years for good reasons
US: i dont need. i have some, take it
Europe: cant pay
China: dont want
Japan: Aussie, happy
India: will have party with its old girl friend Iran (saudi aramco opened office in new delhi, funny arabs becoming beggars)
 

Vjawarrior
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 12:08 pm:       


Rgb:



Inthaki PCLN endhuku padindhi?


china/oil/whole market down etc...
theyll all come back up once this mess clears...china will pump again
 

Asdf
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 11:36 am:       


Vjawarrior:

pcln




nen bhi. wed 1080 level apudu hope i did not miss it ani post sesa. next day 50 points up, malli friday 40 down.

bottom line, i did not miss it. ee violent market naa valla kaad
 

Rgb
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 11:28 am:       


Vjawarrior:

jamlast week pcln 1100 calls choostunna...




Inthaki PCLN endhuku padindhi?
 

Raman
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 11:28 am:       


Inquisitive:

Do you know the misery oil export based countries are going through


prapanchamlo oil antamayipote athivadam tellalism kuda antamavuddi ani evaro sepparu db lo :d
 

Vjawarrior
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 11:20 am:       

inquisitive...very well explained bro
 

Vjawarrior
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 11:20 am:       


Airliner:

ee Iran oil numbers already factored in antunnaru .. so anukunnantha vundakapovachu


ee week wednesday varaku blood bath and then earnings will take it from there...

jamlast week pcln 1100 calls choostunna...
 

Airliner
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 11:03 am:       

ee Iran oil numbers already factored in antunnaru .. so anukunnantha vundakapovachu
Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people.
 

Sodi
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 08:17 am:       

//
Oil will go down more
//


need to be there till end of 2017, chala issues settle avutayi
 

Gotcha
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 08:02 am:       

Next week inko bloodbath aa?
...
 

Theaviator
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 08:00 am:       

Repatinunchi Iran sanctions lift.. Mangalavaram untadhi okokkadikiii
Iran will increase production by 0.5 mill bbl within weeks.. literal raid and riot

15$ is new 40$
 

Inquisitive
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 07:56 am:       


Vidhata:

aa countries sultans bagane unnaru ga, prajala meeda prema unte inni rojulu sampadinchindi ekkada ki vellindi



If you see how much their budget deficit is, you won't ask this question. Look at the chart "burning through reserves fast" in this link: http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Saudi-Arabia-A-Wea k-Kingdom-On-Its-Knees.html
Because of oil wealth, some of these countries like Saudi took up massive welfare spending, and they don't even impose income tax or sales tax! So they are burning through the reserves now.


Vidhata:

I dont think they care misery of their people



They saw what happened to their neighbors. How can they not care for the misery of their people? Do you think theirs is a democratic country like India where the most people do when they get angry is to throw into opposition benches or worse still deny the status of Leader of Opposition like they did to Rahul Gandhi? No! Their's is a monarchy, if people get very angry there will be a rebellion!



Vidhata:

mari inta losses lo production enduku ekkuava chestunnaru? logic endi? demand kanna supply enduku ekkuva undi?



For any individual country, cutting down its production would mean even more losses. Note that the losses are due to fixed costs (sunk costs). Marginal cost of production for Saudi is well below $20 so if they stop selling, they will forego $30 and save less than $20. That means their losses will increase by another $10+ for every barrel of reduced production.
The solution is to syndicate (OPEC) and collectively cut down production so as to increase the prices greatly but that is difficult in today's world because:
1. Non-OPEC production (mainly Russia and USA) is very high. So if OPEC cuts down, these people will free ride, possibly by even increasing their production. If that happens, OPEC will lose marketshare and sales and fail to substantially boost prices.
2. Countries like Venezuela, Nigeria, Iran etc. are in distress already so despite being OPEC members, they are not likely to honor any production cut resolutions. They might cheat and produce more than their quota.


Vidhata:

US rules telusu koddo goppa, I dont think oka sari bankrupt ayyi malli same position ki ravadam chala kastam, malli funding evadu chested



First of all you must note that the same company that becomes bankrupt need not bounce back. New companies can come up. Secondly, regarding your question about funding, if Oil prices rise and the business looks profitable why won't the banks or other investors fund it?! There are a lot of businesses that once saw bankruptcies but are getting huge funding today. .com bubble taruvata tech ki funding leda? Airlines ki funding leda? No bank or investor would say "I know that the prices are high today and you can lock in by hedging in futures market and thus make sure-shot profits, but I won't invest in this project because once upon a time some companies in a similar business went bankrupt!"
"Sakshi is a most balanced and independent media. This has no affiliation with any political party," Jagan had said. Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/news/article/sakshi-retelecasts- story-omits-antisonia-remarks/701963
 

Gringo
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 07:37 am:       

Whatever houston is going to become another detroit ghetto.
 

Vidhata
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 07:19 am:       


Inquisitive:


Do you know the misery oil export based countries are going through?




aa countries sultans bagane unnaru ga, prajala meeda prema unte inni rojulu sampadinchindi ekkada ki vellindi

I dont think they care misery of their people

mari inta losses lo production enduku ekkuava chestunnaru? logic endi? demand kanna supply enduku ekkuva undi?

US rules telusu koddo goppa, I dont think oka sari bankrupt ayyi malli same position ki ravadam chala kastam, malli funding evadu chestadu
 

Sanju
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 07:11 am:       


Emc2:

I don't no the effect on economy but careful if u r investing in oil stock


Alrady invested in energy ETF! Oka 35% naakesindi kooda
 

Inquisitive
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 06:57 am:       


Vidhata:

it looks like the plan of Middle east countries to bankrupt American fracking business to increase prices in long term

chuddam em jaruguddo



Do you know the misery oil export based countries are going through? How can they even dream of doing this to themselves? Even if they manage to make many American fracking companies bankrupt and increase the prices in the long term, the fracking companies will again resume production. US bankruptcy law is so strong that operations will continue even during and after bankruptcy restructuring. Also, new companies can come up. They may shut off production only for as long as crude oil is cheaper than their marginal cost. As long as it is more than marginal cost, they'll continue even while making losses.

Also, unlike regular oil extraction, shale oil projects aren't very long term in nature. New projects keep coming up and old ones keep drying out.
"Sakshi is a most balanced and independent media. This has no affiliation with any political party," Jagan had said. Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/news/article/sakshi-retelecasts- story-omits-antisonia-remarks/701963
 

Vidhata
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 06:36 am:       

it looks like the plan of Middle east countries to bankrupt American fracking business to increase prices in long term

chuddam em jaruguddo
 

Emc2
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Posted on Sunday, January 17, 2016 - 06:17 am:       

http://money.cnn.com/2016/01/16/investing/iran-sanctions-lif t-oil/index.html

I don't no the effect on economy but careful if u r investing in oil stock

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