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AP Municipal Elections 2014 - Jackson...

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Jai_tdp
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 11:48 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Saint:

SA lo congress did well in panchayat elections...where did that vote go?




Panchayathi elections lo Congress ki 3rd place vachhindhi. Inka baaga chesindhi ekkada???
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Jai_tdp
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Jackson:

Corporation
TDP = 11
YSRCP = 2

Municipalities
TDP = 63
YSRCP = 26
Hung = 3




endi vaa ee analysis??

Corporations lo TDP 5, YSRCP 2

Municipalites lo TDP 62, YSRCP 17, Hung 13
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Thelegend
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:40 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Anni surveys kante best REAL. Survey municipal polls

Tdp will get 100+
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Vijayawadanani
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Jackson:

extraordinary poll management




konchem atisayokthi ayina deenilo TDP ni kotte party national level lone ledu
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Bongaram
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Rock:

numbers draw chesadu ivvalti result nundi jackson annai aa numbers draw cheyadaniki inka konni factors consider cheyali antunna


overall mood of the voter is clear.. modi, minority are negligible.. even if u think so, kap votes tho negate cheyyachu,.

only voting pattern different unte tappa.. means.. municipal lo local candi ki favor, assembly lo jagan ni choosi veyyatam ane thinking aite ne YCP will win. but ippudu vote vesina vallalo above 10% ila alochistene YCP ki advantage
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Jackson
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:39 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Papigadu:

Jacku.. idhi GC analysis laga kadu ga..






naaku politics nil exp..

coolmac, rising mama etc.. chebutunnaru kadha..

godavari/anantapur lo TDP sweeps, seema lo tough fight TDP massive majority ki sankethaalu ani..

so TDP ney....
...
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Andhrawala
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Rock:

idea good execution wrong.


there r lot more urban places. tirupathi, kurnool, guntur,vizag , kakinada lanti palces lo election jaragaledhu.

inka nuvvu 102 ani count chesina constituencies lo ie urban votes are like 30000 most vatillo aa rural mandalalu each constituency llo another 3 or 4 mandals untayi. vati lo lead unna chota nullify avuthundhi





ippatidaaka TDP meedha positive buzz only DBs and educated people lo choosemu/vinnamu


The muncipal polls are kind of exit polls on very wide canvaas
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Rk9
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Rock:

mi gola midhe thoda gottali.

edhuti vallu em cheptunnaro irrelavant




mee auntha telivi gala vallam kaadule...memu yedo mango people

I got u r point Jackson analysis lo nuvuu cheppina corps lo election jaragaledu ani so his MLA count is not applicable ani but "what I am saying", akkada jarigina result alane vundi so MLA count inchumunchu aunte ani I try to tell...
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Risingstar
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:37 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

muncipal elections nu chusthe TDP sweep ani thelusthundi.. usual ga trend okelaga untundi
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Papigadu
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:37 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Jacku.. idhi GC analysis laga kadu ga..
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Rock
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Bongaram:

ela? take this as a survey.. intha sampling data vachaka resutls maare chance ledu.. except the voting is done on different lines/parameters





numbers draw chesadu ivvalti result nundi jackson annai aa numbers draw cheyadaniki inka konni factors consider cheyali antunna
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Coolmac
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:36 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Jackson:




Analysis bagundhi Jacky...

but intha calculated ga jaragav each elections... Local body elections lo perform chesina exact percentages General elections lo vundav...

kani YSRC addam ga vodipothundhi anukovataniki konni symptoms kanapaddai ee elections lo... Godavari districts lo sweep TDP...YSRC minimum fight kuda ledhu... Kadapa lanti district lo kuda TDP 3 muncipalities ante ardham...wave is there towards TDP..

donga naa kodukulu paper petti...dobbi thini gammuna vundakunda...pathiths laga roads meedhaki family motham vachi chesina gola inthaa antha kaadhu... anubhavistaaru anni tappulaki moolyam...vaddi tho sahaa
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Rk9
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Rock:

minorities response to bjp alliance




muncipal election time ki almost BJP tho allaince ani nadustundi....Muslims knows that TDP is going with BJP by muncipal & ZP election..

It does not make much difference in general election compared to Muncipal
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Petrolbunk
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Post Number: 1574
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tdp 145 lock cheyyi
SA 2014 Assembly predictions of Bunk

TDP+BJP 140-145+
YSRCP Less than 30
Others max 5
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Bongaram
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Jackson:

adhe time lo ikkada money pumping + minority swing + extraordinary poll management jargindhi


money pumping happen both sides.. minority swing long back stick to jagga.. It is part of his core vote bank. adi lekapote ippudu vachina results kooda undevi kaadu.. poll manageement tDP scores far btr
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Rock
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Rk9:

akkada kooda VJA & ATP result repeat ayyedi...at max ykapa ki okka corp lo lead vachedemo from above list




mi gola midhe thoda gottali.

edhuti vallu em cheptunnaro irrelavant
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Jackson
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Bongaram:

and that is without NDA + PK effect. atleast considerable kap votes swing to TDP anni chotla clear ga kanipistundi




adhe time lo ikkada money pumping + minority swing + extraordinary poll management jargindhi

so adhi idhi compensate ayipotaayi..
...
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Bongaram
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Rock:

idea good execution wrong.


ela? take this as a survey.. intha sampling data vachaka resutls maare chance ledu.. except the voting is done on different lines/parameters
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Rock
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Siloan:

zarigithe result maaredaa?
cool babu cool




result maruthundha ledha secondary. not factored in analysis anedhi chepthunna.

inka pk factor, modi campaign, minorities response to bjp alliance etc kuda unnayi factors
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Bongaram
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:32 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

and that is without NDA + PK effect. atleast considerable kap votes swing to TDP anni chotla clear ga kanipistundi
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Rk9
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Rock:

tirupathi, kurnool, guntur,vizag , kakinada




akkada kooda VJA & ATP result repeat ayyedi...at max ykapa ki okka corp lo lead vachedemo from above list
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Rock
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Rock:




anthe kakunda candidate sleection issues for both parties, electioneering by candidates, money spending momentum change after seat selection lanti issues kuda unnayi.
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Siloan
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Rock:

guntur,vizag , kakinada lanti palces lo election jaragaledhu.




zarigithe result maaredaa?
cool babu cool
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Jackson
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Saint:




Chiru 2009 lo TDP ki ettadu
ee saari YSRCP ki ettadu..

congress assalu contest chesi vundaka pothe 5-10 ekkuva vochevemo YSRCP ki..
...
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Rock
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idea good execution wrong.


there r lot more urban places. tirupathi, kurnool, guntur,vizag , kakinada lanti palces lo election jaragaledhu.

inka nuvvu 102 ani count chesina constituencies lo ie urban votes are like 30000 most vatillo aa rural mandalalu each constituency llo another 3 or 4 mandals untayi. vati lo lead unna chota nullify avuthundhi
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Saint
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Risingstar:


kostha lo majority of the places lo congress cadre was with Congress!!! later they moved to YSRC or TDP based on local equations!

SA lo congress did well in panchayat elections...where did that vote go? most of the places in kostha either congress vunte YSRC ledu...YSRC vunte congress ledu...konni areas lo TDP ledu!!
I am Fan of a Fan of Fan!!!
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Rk9
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:23 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Same muncipla results ZPTC, MLA & MP results lo repeat avuddi.
TDP inka strong rural lo....

ee Exit polls anni ambbaku...muncipal results inka few days mundu vachi vunte ee TV channel batch auntha TDP+BJP ki 23-25 MP seats ichevallu
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Risingstar
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:19 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

YSRCP rural loo strong enti? panchayathee elections loo emi chesindi?
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Guriginja
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:18 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

good analysis, ee results constituency wise majorities chusthe tdp majorities from few hundreds to about 2500/ 3000 maatrame....same thing with ysrcp majorites
also,

ysrcp vote assembly ki kuda maintain avuthundhi peragadam tappa taggadhu.

ee elections taruvatha bjp tho potthu, minority polarization towards, ysrcp is a +, alage kadapa lanti places lo I think mla vote will go to ysr as most of the local body votes are on personal level....so it is adv ysrcp ani naa vuddesam, but voter is smart, so mp ki cross vote chesundocchu....mplo baaga bokkettocchu ysrcp ki...my 2c.
JOHAR YSR.....YSR AMAR RAHE
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Banam
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:14 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Guntur Zilla lo MP YSRCP ki guddi MLA TDP ki Guddaru...
Buduguu, Coolmec and Rajesh Sowjanyam tho memu kooda :D clipart use cheyatam start chesam... Yes Its official....
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Siloan
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:12 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

typical jacky analysis...sampesav
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Fargo
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:10 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

good analysis. baga sesaav
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Jackson
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Posted on Monday, May 12, 2014 - 10:06 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostView Post/Check IPPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

http://eenadu.net/Municipal-Elections-2014/Municipal-WardWis e-Election-Results-2014.html

Corporation
TDP = 11
YSRCP = 2

Municipalities
TDP = 63
YSRCP = 26
Hung = 3

Wards
TDP = 1436 (55.85%)
YSRCP = 934 (36.33%)
Others = 127 (4.94%)
Congress = 53 (2.06%)
CPI/CPM = 21 (0.82%)

ee municipal elections constituencies in general elections equates to 102/175..

TDP = 57
YSRCP = 37
Others = 5
Congress = 2
CPI/CPM = 1

zilla parishad rural populations vi 73/175..

TDP ki kavalsinavi 31 out of these 73 ante 42.46% ravaali..
YSRCP ki kavalsinavi 51 out of 73 ante 69.86% ravaali..(which is impossible)

oka vela ive percentages maintain cheshe Zilla parishad lo kuda ee parties

TDP = 98 (max)
YSRCP = 64 (min)
Congress = 3
CPI/CPM = 2
Others = 9

ee congress + CPI/CPM + Others kalipithe = 14

veetillo 6 YSRCP and TDP ki velle chance vundi general elections lo..

TDP: 102
YSRCP: 65
Others: 8

kaani rural lo YSRCP and TDP %'s exhcnage aithe (as YSRCP rural lo ekkuva popular kabatti)

TDP: 87
YSRCP: 80
Others: 8

so final ga
TDP range: 87-102
YSRCP range: 65-80
Others: 8

aa okka seat TDP others nundi easy ga teesukoni form chesestundi even in worst case..

so ela chusukunna kuda TDP will form govt..

no need to worry about exit polls

but oka vela cross voting jarigi vunte ante TDP/BJP ki MP guddi YSRCP ki MLA guddunte then aa case lone TDP gone case avvachu..

but otherwise TDP is 99.99% good..
...

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