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     Gusagusa Side Hero Username: Gusagusa Post Number: 2483 Registered: 04-2012 Posted From: 37.228.106.125 Rating: N/A |
92 Respected Shri Advaniji, I am taking the liberty, sir, of writing to you at a critical juncture in Indian politics. This is the most important inflection point since 1977 when, following the revocation of the Emergency, you first became a minister. But first some background. In mid-1980, when the BJP did not yet exist, I requested you to write a monthly column for a magazine I had just launched. The column was titled “The Opposition†and you instantly and generously agreed. I was just 25 years old and you had just completed your term as Information & Broadcasting Minister in the shortlived 1977-79 Janata government led by Prime Minister Morarji Desai. Your column, published in our magazine alongside articles by leaders like I.K. Gujral and Madhu Dandavate, was designed to give a voice to the opposition in Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi’s governments spanning the 1980s. It proved among the magazine’s most popular columns and continued well into the 1990s. The NDA government took office in 1998 and you became Deputy Prime Minister. My publications were as critical of the BJP-led NDA government during 1998-2004 as they had been of earlier Congress governments. The first principle of journalism is to be constructively adversarial with the government of the day and give the opposition an equal platform for debate and dissent. The second principle of journalism is to maintain “arm's length†from the government except for professional work. Hence, despite our decades-old editorial relationship, I did not contact you between 1998 and 2004 when you were Deputy Prime Minister. Indeed, you explicitly referred to this on March 28, 2011 when you addressed the inaugural Face The Press programme at the Mumbai Press Club which I moderated along with Ajit Ranade of the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR) and three panelists: N.Ram of The Hindu, Kumar Ketkar of Divya Marathi and Uday Shankar of Star TV. This is how you prefaced your outstanding speech on Democracy And Accountable Governance at the event which was televised live: “When I received this invitation from Minhaz Merchant in February 2011, I felt really honoured that he had thought of me and said he would like me to be the first speaker in this series, though I told him that it would have been more appropriate if the Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh, had been called for the inaugural Face The Press.†Though Dr. Manmohan Singh was in fact the chief guest at the launch of my biography of the late industrialist Aditya Birla, I had no hesitation in choosing you to be the first national leader to address the inaugural Face The Press event. I have always regarded you as one of India’s most distinguished statesmen. * * * As you know, sir, the 2014 general election can throw up three possible outcomes: NDA 3, UPA 3 or UF 2. And as the pre-eminent leader who, along with Atal Bihari Vajpayee, founded the BJP in December 1980 and took the party's Lok Sabha tally from 2 seats in 1984 to 182 seats in 1998, you know better than anyone else how critical the next 10 months leading up to the 2014 Lok Sabha poll are. The only way an NDA 3 government can be formed in 2014 is if the BJP wins 180-195 seats on its own. To do that it needs to focus on 12 key states. Here’s how the electoral numbers could work out for the BJP next year in these 12 states – given the right strategy: Six states in the Hindi heartland: 85 seats – UP (35), Bihar (16), Rajasthan (20), Punjab (5), Haryana (3), Delhi (6). Three states in the West: 40 seats – Maharashtra (18), Gujarat (20), Goa (2). Two states in Central India: 35 seats – Madhya Pradesh (25), Chhattisgarh (10). One state in the South: 15 seats – Karnataka (15). Total: 175 seats in 12 focus states. Of the balance 23 states and union territories, where it has a relatively limited footprint, the BJP can aim for at least 20 seats, taking the party’s total to 195 seats. Your core allies – Shiv Sena, SAD, AGP and HJC – could contribute another 30 seats to raise the base NDA tally to 225 seats. New allies would include the AIADMK and TRS with 40 seats between them, along with 10 independents, taking the NDA total to 275 seats – without the JD(U), BJD and TMC. To achieve these numbers, the BJP will have to nominate a strong, decisive Prime Ministerial candidate. He must satisfy four criteria: one, he must be incorruptible; two he must have a record of good governance; three, he must have the support of the party cadre; and four, he must be a vote-multiplier. Every opinion poll in the past three months has shown that only one of the BJP’s state-level and central leaders can deliver the 195 seats the BJP needs: Narendra Modi. As the most respected leader in the BJP, your mentorship of the party’s next Prime Ministerial candidate could decide the outcome of the 2014 general election and set the course of Indian politics for the next decade. The three-day BJP National Executive meeting in Goa which begins on June 7 presents you an historical opportunity to make the right choice for India. Yours truly Minhaz Merchant |
