| Author | Message | ||
     Bharathi Comedian Username: Bharathi Post Number: 1917 Registered: 03-2012 Posted From: 49.207.195.42 Rating: N/A |
ee mayawathi ki dalits plus uppercastes kadha ..upper castes bjp ki vestharu hindhu vote consolidation lo modi pm candi ayithe | ||
| Bharathi Comedian Username: Bharathi Post Number: 1916 Registered: 03-2012 Posted From: 49.207.195.42 Rating: N/A |
OBC lo otehr than yadavs elaagu modi factor valla bjp ki vestharu . atleast 20% of yadavs ni kooda bjp vaipu laagiteh ee godavalu punyama ani then getting 40 in UP is certain modi with kalyan singh can do it anukuntaa | ||
| Tilak Hero Username: Tilak Post Number: 12402 Registered: 02-2012 Posted From: 125.22.249.81 Rating: N/A |
The fight is in between .. Mulayam and Congress .. for muslim vote .. so who does better appeasement and who appears to be forming the govt at centre next .. they will get muslim vote .. Congress - BSP .. silent co-operation ani nadustondi talk (naa guess .. Congress will support Mayawati against Modi for next PM post elections) .. so Mulayam has no option but to do more licking .. ideal case lo .. Hindutva ki around 25% vote share undedi okappudu .. but manchi leadership leka .. Ayodhya lanti promises meeda emi kadalakapovadam tho janam hurt ayyi .. SP/BSP ni try chesaru .. Modi lanti face ni petti .. sarigga campaign chesukunte .. aa vote antha back vachestundi .. ee sari kotta angle enti ante .. last few riots in 2012 in UP .. most of them have been between .. Yadavs and Muslims (both vote bank of SP and Yadavs were supposedly very "secular" all the while) .. so a little percentage of Yadavs might want to vote for BJP .. which will be a game changer if the situation continues to be the way it is now .. "India must conquer the World and nothing less than that is my ideal" || "...with patriotism must be associated a real feeling for others... We must not forget that we have to teach a great lesson to the world... religion and philosophy..." - Swami Vivekananda | ||
| Bharathi Comedian Username: Bharathi Post Number: 1911 Registered: 03-2012 Posted From: 49.207.195.42 Rating: N/A |
yes mulayam is helping BJP with hsi stupid muslim appeasement | ||
| Politicalobserver Side Hero Username: Politicalobserver Post Number: 2007 Registered: 11-2012 Posted From: 117.203.59.255 Rating: N/A |
Niti Central kaadu kani UP lo BJP revival varaku nijam Mulayam Singh is seeing to it | ||
| Bharathi Comedian Username: Bharathi Post Number: 1890 Registered: 03-2012 Posted From: 49.207.195.42 Rating: N/A |
Apart from the above-mentioned major riots there have been at least a dozen minor communal flare-ups that have left more than 54 people dead in riots and religious violence in Uttar Pradesh in 6 months. Close to 1150 people have been injured in communal violence and tens of hundreds of crores of rupees worth of property has been damaged. Bareilly itself saw curfew being imposed for weeks, while at least 36 days of curfew has been imposed in some part of the State or other since March 2012. » Close to 10 people have died in communal violence every month in UP since Akhilesh Yadavâs ascendancy to the Chief Ministerâs chair » An average of 5 people have been injured in riots each day that the SP Government is in power in UP » 1 out of every 7 days has seen curfew being imposed in one or the other part of the State since the Samajwadis have been ruling Uttar Pradesh Polarisation of UP society is once again happening because of blatant minority-appeasement by the SP. A vast number of Hindus feel unsafe ever since the Samajwadis came to power in Lucknow. But this polarisation is not a new phenomenon, for the undercurrent of communal divide has existed for the past 2-3 years. During the 2009 LS polls and even in the State Assembly polls earlier in 2012, that undercurrent was pretty much there, but somehow the BJP has managed to fail in its efforts to tap into the Hindu agitation. What has changed now though is that polarisation is more acute since the SP Governmentâs flagrant minority-appeasement has started. The UP of today is literally a tinderbox waiting to explode at the slightest of sparks}} | ||
| Bharathi Comedian Username: Bharathi Post Number: 1889 Registered: 03-2012 Posted From: 49.207.195.42 Rating: N/A |
One of the biggest stumbling blocks for BJPâs onward march in UP is its inability to get the plus Hindu vote of OBCs. For instance in 2012 (as in 2007), BJP got a large chunk of upper caste votes and yet could not reach closer to the three digit mark in terms of seats because of its inability to sell itself as a party of the OBCs} surveys tell support for narendra modi is huge among OBC hindus if OBC hindu polarisation happens bjp can win 30 mp seats in UP ( thanks to severe minority appeasement policies of SP)} | ||
| Bharathi Comedian Username: Bharathi Post Number: 1888 Registered: 03-2012 Posted From: 49.207.195.42 Rating: N/A |
Faizabad, Uttar Pradesh, Dussehra day on October 24, 2012 The Durga procession in Rudauli town, about 40 kilometres from Faizabad, had almost reached its immersion point when a mob suddenly attacked the procession and riots broke out. The reason given for this sudden flare-up was an incident of gulal being thrown into a masjid, but this sounds suspicious since there were two other incidents of religious rioting reported almost simultaneously from Bhadarsa & Shahgunj towns of Faizabad district. Two people were killed in the riots and hundreds were injured in the district. The damage to the main market places in the district was even more serious as hundreds of shops were gutted in a deliberately lit fire. Local Hindi Press reported that litres of kerosene were distributed to many miscreant Muslims just a day before all hell broke loose. Of course, there was considerable silence about all of this in the âsecularâ national media; in fact, an effort is being made now to paint the Hindu community as the perpetrator of the crime. It wonât be surprising if the State Government and certain NGO types (Rihai Manch has already been on the scene) collude to paint Muslims as the victims of Faizabad rioting and blame Hindu organisations for tailoring the riots. These riots in Faizabad are not exactly a flash in the pan. There have been more than a dozen riots across Uttar Pradesh in the last 6 months. For instance, September violence in Ghaziabad was even more organised than the Faizabad riots; hundreds of Muslim miscreants literally barged into the police station armed with rifles, revolvers and sharp weapons. Once again the ostensible provocative reason was the desecration of a copy of the Quran. In the ensuing firing, some seven people lost their lives and two constables were critically injured (as per official estimates). Prior to Ghaziabad were Lucknow and Bareilly and half a dozen other cities that saw some kind of Muslim rioting, arson or violence ever since the SP Government assumed office in UP. Bareilly was particularly tense and had to bear days of curfew before returning to normalcy. All the gains of a peaceful, riot-free administration of 5 years of BSP rule have been negated in a matter of months. The Akhilesh Yadav administration is widely perceived across the State as being blatantly communal and pandering to Muslim extremism. Polarisation is a reality in UP today Geography of a riot Causation Number of deaths Bareilly riots part 1 (July 23) Muslims attacked Kanwariyas for playing loud bhajans Official: 3, rumoured: 7 Bareilly riots part 2 (Aug 11) Muslim mob opened fire on Janmashtami procession Official: 7, rumoured: 12 Mathura riots (Jun 1) A thirsty Hindu boy drank water from a mosque Official: 4, rumoured: 9 Pratapgarh riots (June 24) A Dalit girl was gang-raped and murdered by Muslim miscreants Official: 1, rumoured: 3 Lucknow riots (Aug 17) Assam & Burma Official: 0, factual: 0 Kanpur riots (Aug 17) Assam & Burma Official: 0, factual: 0 Allahabad riots (Aug 17) Assam & Burma Official: 0, factual: 1 Ghaziabad riots part 1 (Sep 3) Alleged police mishandling of drunken riding on a bike Official: 2, rumoured: 3 Ghaziabad riots part 2 (Sep 14) Rumours of Quran desecration Official: 7, rumoured: 13 [Data Sources: Newspaper reports, ground reports & personal accounts of people] ------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------- Apart from the above-mentioned major riots there have been at least a dozen minor communal flare-ups that have left more than 54 people dead in riots and religious violence in Uttar Pradesh in 6 months. Close to 1150 people have been injured in communal violence and tens of hundreds of crores of rupees worth of property has been damaged. Bareilly itself saw curfew being imposed for weeks, while at least 36 days of curfew has been imposed in some part of the State or other since March 2012. » Close to 10 people have died in communal violence every month in UP since Akhilesh Yadavâs ascendancy to the Chief Ministerâs chair » An average of 5 people have been injured in riots each day that the SP Government is in power in UP » 1 out of every 7 days has seen curfew being imposed in one or the other part of the State since the Samajwadis have been ruling Uttar Pradesh Polarisation of UP society is once again happening because of blatant minority-appeasement by the SP. A vast number of Hindus feel unsafe ever since the Samajwadis came to power in Lucknow. But this polarisation is not a new phenomenon, for the undercurrent of communal divide has existed for the past 2-3 years. During the 2009 LS polls and even in the State Assembly polls earlier in 2012, that undercurrent was pretty much there, but somehow the BJP has managed to fail in its efforts to tap into the Hindu agitation. What has changed now though is that polarisation is more acute since the SP Governmentâs flagrant minority-appeasement has started. The UP of today is literally a tinderbox waiting to explode at the slightest of sparks. Relevance of Kalyan Singh in todayâs Uttar Pradesh It is in such a bleak scenario that the original Hindutva icon of Uttar Pradesh, Kalyan Singh, is returning to the BJP. It is widely speculated by political pundits that there is hardly any electoral relevance left in Mr Singhâs political career. But as usual, the pundits miss the target by a large margin. Not only is Kalyan Singh the perfect leader for the BJP, but he has also managed to remain popular among Hindu voters of Uttar Pradesh. And yes, there is proof in the pudding â just consider the recent UP Assembly election for starters. Although the Jana Kranti Party of Kalyan Singh did not win a single seat in the UP Assembly election, it did get substantial votes to prove the relevance of Singh. » Kalyan Singhâs party got some 9 lakh plus votes in the Assembly poll and stood second only to the Peace Party among non-serious contenders for power, other than the big 4 â SP, BSP, BJP & Congress-RLD. That is a considerable achievement when seen in the context of so many other parties in the fray with far greater resources. For example Nitish Kumarâs JDU got more than 2 lakh votes while the Communists couldnât even touch the 2 lakh mark. » Although the SP victory in the UP Assembly election looked impressive at the outset, the fact is that 181 seats were won by a margin of less than 10k votes and out of those, 89 seats were won by a margin of less than 5k votes. BJP stood at second place in 24 of those closely fought seats and if Kalyan Singh was part of the BJP then surely there would have been a big impact in the closely contested Assembly seats. » Kalyan Singhâs outfit itself was runner-up in about 6 Assembly seats and cornered substantial number of votes in almost 18 Assembly segments to make a difference to the eventual outcome. Even a simple addition of BJP and JaKP (Kalyan Singhâs party) vote share would have given at least 15 additional seats to the BJP in the UP Assembly. » The electoral calculus in the Indian first-past-the-post system is a lot more complicated than a simple addition or subtraction of vote shares; for instance, if Kalyan Singh had BJPâs resources and workers at his disposal then his ability to garner votes could have substantially improved. » The caste conundrum of UP is such that BJP needs to at least get a substantial chunk of the OBC vote in addition to the core upper caste vote in order to be a strong player in the field. The backward vote usually gravitates in 2 major directions during elections â 1 pole of the backward vote is occupied by the Yadavs, while the other pole got dispersed this time because of lack of leadership. Kalyan Singh as a strong Lodh leader could potentially provide a strong leadership to the non-Yadav backward vote of UP. UP Caste-breakup [Data Source: CSDS + BJP internal database] {MrBC = More Backward Caste; MBC= Most BC} ------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------- BJP as a party has not completely been marginalised in the caste-communal polity of Uttar Pradesh, for the party is still relevant in the scheme of things because it could garner 15 per cent of the vote share and emerged as third biggest party in the state even in 2012. One of the biggest stumbling blocks for BJPâs onward march in UP is its inability to get the plus Hindu vote of OBCs. For instance in 2012 (as in 2007), BJP got a large chunk of upper caste votes and yet could not reach closer to the three digit mark in terms of seats because of its inability to sell itself as a party of the OBCs. A cursory glance at the number of MLAâs belonging to different caste groups who have won on BJP tickets over the years gives an idea about partyâs declining impact of social-engineering in UP. [Data Source: Election Commission of India] ------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------- The one clear takeaway from the above chart is that although BJPâs decline has been secular across all castes and groups, the decline in the number of OBC legislators has been sharper and seems to have totally flattened in the last 5 years. There was a sudden drop of a whopping 75 per cent in the number of OBC legislators from BJP in one election cycle between 1996 & 2002, whereas the number of upper caste MLAâs dropped by a more manageable 28 per cent during the same time period. If BJP is to have any future in the Uttar Pradesh electoral landscape, and by extension Indiaâs national politics, it has to address this OBC disenchantment with the party. The re-joining of Kalyan Singh at this critical juncture in BJPâs political life in the largest Indian State should act as the ideal corrective measure to re-launch the party in the OBC sphere. Targeting the next Lok Sabha Election Every move that the BJP makes today should be potentially aimed at the next Lok Sabha election. Uttar Pradesh with 80 parliamentarians is definitely a crucial link in the BJPâs plans for 2014 (or earlier). In fact, BJPâs ascendancy as a national alternative to the Congress in the 90âs was largely because of the partyâs dominance in UP; that state had been a happy hunting ground for the party throughout the 90âs when it won a majority of the LS seats no matter the performance in assembly polls. Being the most populous state of India, in the last few elections, Uttar Pradesh has been showing electoral dichotomy when it comes to preference of national Government over State Government â voters prefer State parties for Assembly polls and national parties for LS polls. Fortunately for the BJP, the partyâs performance in the State has always been better in LS polls than in Assembly polls (with the possible exception of 2009). For instance, even in 2004, BJP was among the top 2 in 33 LS seats despite a bad performance in the 2002 assembly elections. In the previous general elections of 1998 and 1999, the NDA Governments led by Vajpayee were powered by the partyâs good performance in Uttar Pradesh despite the party weakening in the state Assembly. [Data Source: Election Commission of India] ------------------------------------------------------------ -------------------- Thus there are several factors that may work in favour of the BJP in the next LS polls in UP (whenever they are held). The party has a historic opportunity once again to recover lost ground in the State. » The communally polarised State under the SP Governmentâs policy of minority appeasement has opened the door for BJP to reclaim large sections of Hindu vote. » Narendra Modiâs national leadership can potentially enthuse large parts of Hindu vote in Uttar Pradesh. The undercurrents present since 2009 can become a potential wave under Modiâs prime-ministerial candidacy. » Return of the original Hindutva icon and a powerful Lodh leader, Kalyan Singh, can potentially help BJP rework its social engineering in the State. » Increasing presence of Muslim parties in the electoral arena can lead to reverse polarisation of the Hindu vote in favour of the BJP â Peace Party got 17 lakh votes in 2012 Assembly election while the coalition of Muslim parties got close to 30 lakh votes. » BJPâs vote share is always better in the LS polls vis-à -vis Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh. » The UP voter has started voting distinctly in State elections as compared to Central elections. Congress was the beneficiary of that vote in 2009, but this time since the party is in complete disarray, BJP will get a big chunk of that national vote. For all these factors to accrue to BJPâs advantage, the party must fight as a united outfit without ego clashes and must not sabotage the chances of the party by backroom management and deal making with opposition leaders. Now that he is back in the party fold, Kalyan Singh must be given adequate importance in the State. Lastly and most importantly, Narendra Modi is a must have as the partyâs prime leader in order to enthuse the cadres and the voters of Uttar Pradesh to once again believe in the party with a difference http://www.niticentral.com/2012/12/04/kalyan-singh-will-win- uttar-pradesh-for-bjp-25653.html |
