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Pipeline
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Username: Pipeline

Post Number: 1378
Registered: 05-2009
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Posted on Tuesday, June 12, 2012 - 03:08 pm:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)


Vivekanandji:

While Congress had secured 63 per cent votes in 2009,




ikkade thelusthandi raasinodiki entha knowledge vundo
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Mamamiya786
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Posted on Tuesday, June 12, 2012 - 01:58 pm:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

Tirupati , Narsapur and pattipadu close fight..
Sensation(About Bala):He can win in atleast half of the segments in Rayalaseema. Emi matladutunnavo neeku telusa. He can contest any where in coastal and rayalaseema districts. I personally feel he should contest from Srikakulam dt.
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Mamamiya786
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Posted on Tuesday, June 12, 2012 - 01:51 pm:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

vodipoye seats lo evi vuntai anukuntunnaru...
Sensation(About Bala):He can win in atleast half of the segments in Rayalaseema. Emi matladutunnavo neeku telusa. He can contest any where in coastal and rayalaseema districts. I personally feel he should contest from Srikakulam dt.
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Vivekanandji
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Posted on Tuesday, June 12, 2012 - 12:49 pm:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

What worked for Jagan Reddy

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/what-worked-for-jagan-in- the-by-elections/1/200394.html

Unprecedented 80 per cent voters exercised their right on Tuesday in the crucial by-elections to 18 assembly seats and Nellore Lok Sabha seat in Andhra Pradesh. The bypolls are widely believed to be the "semi-finals" for the 2014 general elections.

The massive turnout of voters at the polling stations is an indication to a possible change in the political dynamics of the state. While it was a do-or-die situation for the ruling Congress party, the outcome of the by-elections is going to decide the political future of YSR Congress party president Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy, who has been jailed in connection with his alleged disproportionate assets case.

The counting of votes will take place on June 15 and results will be declared by the same evening.

The polling, which began at 8 am, went on peacefully, barring a few stray incidents of violence and group clashes. There were large queues at several polling stations even at the conclusion of polling at 5 pm and the Election Commission authorities announced that those who were in the queue at the scheduled closure of polling would be allowed to cast their vote.

"The polling percentage is unprecedented. It is expected to touch 80 per cent after the closure of polling. We are compiling the final figures sent by the returning officers," chief electoral officer Bhanwarlal said.

Ramachandrapuram assembly constituency in East Godavari district recorded the maximum polling percentage of 86.53 per cent, followed by 84 per cent in Parkal assembly constituency in Warangal district. The lowest poll percentage was in Tirupati, where 55 per cent voters turned up. The Nellore Lok Sabha constituency registered 68 per cent voting.

According to political observers, the massive turnout of voters has given a clear edge to the fledgling YSR Congress party. According to reports from the battlefield, the YSR Congress party would win not less than 15 assembly seats, besides the Nellore Lok Sabha seat. The Congress and the TDP might win one seat each, while the Telangana Rashtra Samithi is likely to emerge victorious in Parkal assembly seat in Warangal district, the lone seat in the Telangana region that went to bypolls.

In fact, Congress MP from Vijayawada, Lagadapati Rajagopal, who has commissioned an independent pre-poll survey, predicted that Jagan's party would win 12 to the 18 assembly seats. "The Congress has the possibility of winning one to three seats, while the TDP might win two seats. The Parkal assembly seat will go to the TRS," he told the media, immediately after the conclusion of polling in the evening.

While there was generally some sort of sympathy among voters for the YSR Congress party candidates, who had been disqualified for voting against the Congress government on farmer issues, Jagan managed to increase this sympathy multi-fold by explaining to voters as to how he was being targeted by the Congress party in the name of CBI inquiry.

The Kadapa MP's arrest by the CBI on May 27 further compounded the sympathy factor, which was fully exploited by his mother Y S Vijayalakshmi and sister Sharmila in their subsequent road shows. The mother-daughter duo successfully made a martyr out of Jagan and convinced voters that he had become a victim of political vendetta and that the ruling Congress was using CBI as an instrument to defame him.

The Congress could not counter the vendetta campaign of Jagan and his family. In fact, his arrest a couple of weeks before the polling had done more harm than good to the Congress party. While Jagan was able to cash in on the populist schemes introduced by his father, the late Y S Rajasekhara Reddy, and claimed his political legacy, the ruling Congress failed to own up the schemes. Instead of projecting the achievements of the government in the last two years, the Congress leaders focused only on Jagan bashing and that appeared to be counter-productive.

Congress leaders now fear that the victory of YSR Congress party in a majority of seats would prove to be a nemesis for the Kiran Kumar Reddy government, as there could be a large-scale exodus of the ruling party MLAs into YSR Congress.

The Kiran government is surviving on a razor-thin majority in the 294-member assembly with the magic figure being 148. Two MLAs crossed the floor to join the Jagan camp last week, bringing the Congress's strength to 151, while two others had openly extended their support to the YSR leader. If another 10-12 MLAs jump the fence, the Congress government could collapse even if seven MLAs of the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen extend support from outside.

For the main opposition, the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) headed by N Chandrababu Naidu, the by-election outcome might not make much of a difference as all the seats for which voting was held were held by the Congress earlier. If there is an improvement in his party's voting percentage, Naidu would hope to consolidate it by 2014. However, TDP circles are wary of the "sympathy factor" favouring Jagan's party.
Andharuu Baagundaali.
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Vivekanandji
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Posted on Tuesday, June 12, 2012 - 12:46 pm:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/exit-poll-shows-huge-loss -for-congress/1/200377.html

Exit poll shows huge loss for Congress; Jagan's YSR Congress may win 15 seats

An exit poll conducted by the Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research (CVOTER) has confirmed the Congress' worst fear in Andhra Pradesh, where by-elections were held for 18 assembly seats and one Lok Sabha constituency on Tuesday.

The outcome of the exit poll indicated that people have voted against vendetta politics. The Congress, after its merger with actor-turned-politician Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam Party (PRP), held 18 seats. However, subsequent to the bypolls, the alliance could lose 16.

And the biggest gainer was jailed former Congressman Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSR Congress, which was likely to win 13 to 15 seats.

Though Chandrababu Naidu's Telugu Desam Party (TDP) retains its relevance in terms of vote share, it would not yield substantial number of seats.

Clearly, there seemed a wave against the Congress that went in favour of Jagan, who was arrested by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) in connection with a disproportionate assets (DA) case just days before the polling.

Massive swing against Congress
As per the exit poll results, the vote share figures spelled doom for the Congress. The gap between Congress and YSR Congress was likely to be around 10 per cent.

While Congress had secured 63 per cent votes in 2009, in 2012 its vote share seems to be falling to 29 per cent in the same segments. The massive swing of 34 per cent against the Congress went in favour of YSR Congress, with a total vote share of 39 per cent.

Key issues
Despite Telangana statehood and corruption making headlines in the recent past, surprisingly it was development that topped as an issue for the voters. As many as 25 per cent people voted with development being the key issue for them.

In fact, Jagan himself became an issue for the voters as 23 per cent of the 46 lakh people across 12 districts voted because of him. Only 9 per cent voters seemed bothered about corruption.

It clearly indicates that Congress's move to discredit Jagan backfired for the ruling party.

Caste equations
Even the caste equations did not work for the Congress as the strong vote bank of the powerful Reddy community was completely polarised in Jagan's favour.

The second important group of Kamma community still backed the TDP. Though other backward communities no longer rally for the party, Chiranjeevi's Kapu community hardly salvaged the situation for the Congress. The exit poll showed that the PRP votes did not shift en mass to the Congress following the merger.
Andharuu Baagundaali.

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