| Author | Message | ||
     Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1305 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/08/09/falling-oil-pr ice-puts-canadas-oil-sands-growth-under-scrutiny/ | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1304 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
this is the ideal case for buying options. they reduce your outlay, and maximize the return. essentially you are taking a bet and writing off. if it comes, well and good. | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1303 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
what I meant was - oil is too complex a commodity for me to be comfortable with - I cannot bet my money on the whims of oil movement - that's what i meant by not trusting | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1302 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
correct. this is the point where investing stops being a science and starts becoming an art or luck. you do not make much money when a decision to be made is as clear as day and night. every fool can figure that. you make money when you make a difficult call correctly. this is a tough one. you could call it either way. honestly, i would pass this, because if I cannot fit something in my box. this doesn't fit in my box. basic reason is, I do not trust oil. | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 533 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 38.99.158.10 Rating: N/A |
Thank you so much for your time & effort. bottom-line is this is not bad company(considering if and buts positively), but need to explore more to invest confidently, is it right | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1301 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
wow! that's a good question - you must be a CFE to notice that - i just slided it in thinking some one might do some advanced research -- Okay, here is the deal: Just read this, you will get it. If you have any questions, post them here, either I will answer or search the answers. http://www.fool.com/FoolFAQ/FoolFAQ0013.htm Price/Yield^2 is the inverse ERP described in this paper. Advantage of using the inverse is avoiding the decimals. people are more comfortable with whole numbers, but the concept is basically the ERP ratio. | ||
| Crazy Junior Artist Username: Crazy Post Number: 17 Registered: 02-2011 Posted From: 198.241.217.15 Rating: N/A |
Entikaburlu, Thank you for your time. can you explain the importance of Yield/Price^2 .. I didn't find much info reg this ... any links about this parameter | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1300 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
Continuing where we left.. Growth: You can check the growth of a company using the "financials" link on Google Finance for any stock. if you do that, you would find SU is in the same ball park growth rate as its peers. in otherwords, we cannot buy this company for growth alone. that leaves the oil commodity as a major deciding factor. I personally believe, oil is a politically sensitive commodity, and also politically operable. Every country has oil reserves, which can be released by executive orders which can keep the oil prices low, of course but not forever. this is a factor to be considered. What happens to oil prices over the next 12 months is beyond my knowledge. What we can do is to flip a coin and take a bet. If you want to do some research about OIL trends, start here: http://www.eia.gov/steo/ Oil also correlates with the GDP of major economies - US, China, EU. If their GDP rates are going to be sluggish, oil will not fly. --------------------------------------- What next? ----------------------------------------- Here is where I would take a lifeline. I would call ask people I know about what they think. Let's do that now. Let's check with N_U, Scallion and others who play in the stocks if they heard about this or any rumor (aka Cramer) about SU. ---------------------------- Now other factors ---------------------------- There are other factors to consider. For e.g. SU is considerably smaller than its peers. This is a positive thing. You need to give some premium for the smaller size. Counter intuitive, right? here is the deal - in mature industries, organic growth is slow. so, the big fish swallows small fish at a premium, sometimes upto 50 - 75% of the stock price. When the stock price falls 30%, a small company looks deliciously edible to a big company. So, this is a factor in SU favor. ----------- Other factors ------------- What about their reserves? Probably they are sitting on more reserves than their peers. Need more research in this area. -------------- Finally decision -------------- But since you are the investor, you need to make the decision at this point. If you are not able to decide at this point, only because, our research has been sloppy. you need to go over again and close the gaps that is causing the indeterminate outcome. ---------- End ---------- | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1299 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
Thanks SriSri! MS, I do not have any specific books or web sites for reading. The best education is following the markets regularly and reading the articles and news related to your stocks, Google Finance nicely presents the stories/news/blogs for each stock in its context. | ||
| Srisri001 Junior Artist Username: Srisri001 Post Number: 244 Registered: 03-2008 Posted From: 71.244.102.123 Rating: |
Entikaburlu: I cannot wait to appreciate our dear friend 'entikaburlu' for his invaluable time and efforts put here to educate us from scratch in a vivid fashion. Entikaburlu has explained one of the myths on PE ratio so well. '''this one is a fallacy - all growth stocks has high P/E. Ignore it as much as possible. This is a myth perpetuated by the purveyors of dud stocks. It's only useful for peer comparison. but not useful for buying. No P/E means - no profits - or no data available""" It gives me lot of pleasure reading such wonderful threads. | ||
| Mental_sachinodu Side Hero Username: Mental_sachinodu Post Number: 5867 Registered: 10-2008 Posted From: 208.85.128.5 Rating: N/A |
can you suggest some basic literature in relation to the market. basic 101 stuff lantivi.. the world of appearances may or may not be real, or both may and may not be real - or may be indescribable; or may be real and indescribable, or unreal and indescribable; or in the end may be read and unreal and indescribable - its all Syadvada | ||
| Sindhooram Junior Artist Username: Sindhooram Post Number: 211 Registered: 02-2008 Posted From: 117.211.93.58 Rating: N/A |
enti idhi kurrollu ituvanti thrds esi DB ni paddu settunnaru.. Eluri_Kurradu h r u? "karmaNyE vaadhikaarastE maaphalEshu kadaachanaa..maa karma phala hEturbhuhu maatE sangostva karmanee" -- karmalanu aacharinchunTa yendE neeku adhikaaramunnadi kaanii vaani phalitamu paina lEdu.neevu karma phalamunaku kaaraNamu kaaraadu aTlani karmalanu chEyuTa maanaraadu | ||
| Eluri_kurradu Hero Username: Eluri_kurradu Post Number: 13637 Registered: 02-2008 Posted From: 173.16.22.169 Rating: N/A |
m karunanidhi profile anukuni vacha chus eee duplicate EK ni ignore seyyala futurelo  I'm not a kurradu  | ||
| Ashton Hero Username: Ashton Post Number: 12662 Registered: 05-2008 Posted From: 64.20.45.178 Rating: N/A |
Ok got it. Thanks bro! | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1298 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
we continue tomorrow night.. | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1296 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: |
this one is a fallacy - all growth stocks has high P/E. Ignore it as much as possible. This is a myth perpetuated by the purveyors of dud stocks. It's only useful for peer comparison. but not useful for buying. No P/E means - no profits - or no data available | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1295 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
MK, I am back.. The only thing going for SU so far is the analyst projections. It has a high of 63 and low of 35 and a mean of 49. These guys are some times right and some times wrong, but since they are usually CFA/CFE/MBA types, you can take their projections as one input. So so far, what we know: - highly correleates with oil - down with oil and dow - has an yield of 1.3% - lags peers in profitability - more expensive than peers - smaller than peers - top analyst prediction is 100% of the current price. ------------- Okay, what about growth? Is it growing at a much faster clip than its peers? If so, its higher valuation, may be worth the risk. -------------- What about the downside risk? Suppose we buy it, at least will it hold my topline, if not go up? ------------- | ||
| Ashton Hero Username: Ashton Post Number: 12660 Registered: 05-2008 Posted From: 64.20.45.178 Rating: N/A |
still looking around for the one's with low P/E ratio.... MGH is showing a P/E ration of 19.66, but it's current value is too low compared to its 52 week high... It looks like a risky stock... What about companies with no P/E ratios? It says N/A here http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=CDY&ql=0 | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1294 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
never heard. give me a day or two. just follow what MK and I are doing with SU, you can start the process and post the findings. we will join. | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 531 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 99.244.154.173 Rating: N/A |
understood SU operates retail stores like big ones: Petro Canada, etc small | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1293 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
no problem - never looked into any oil company so far, i always use OIL as their proxy, but this is interesting. continue, will join later. some of the things you may want to brush up are the definitions of ROE, ROI, Yield, Yield/Price^2 ratio, etc. everything is available on wiki.. Ashton, did you get the gold miners? | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1292 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
SU is paying roughly 0.40 per share per year (10c each quarter). at $30 per share, it works out to : 3.3 X 0.4 = 1.32 % which may be marginally better than bank dep. but bank dep does not go down, a share price may go down, so to assume that risk, you need to be paid more. So, even though the yield is comparable to a cd, it does not give you risk premium. so, yield side decision is No. that leaves the only reason we should buy an oil stock now is the future of oil. let's continue the oil commodity research.. I need to do some work for an hour now,will join you later, post your findings. as you see, you would almost spend a day or two before you say any thing about a stock. all this may look funny to you but, what I am doing is walking you through what I do, so that you will know where my decision came from. | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 530 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 99.244.154.173 Rating: N/A |
thank u very much for ur time & effort | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 529 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 99.244.154.173 Rating: N/A |
done | ||
| Ashton Hero Username: Ashton Post Number: 12659 Registered: 05-2008 Posted From: 64.20.45.178 Rating: N/A |
Thanks so much brother! Could you please throw some light on this stock? Minco Gold Corporation (MGH) | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1291 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
MK, get rid of your profile message - one shouldn't wear politics on their sleeve. more practically, when we want to refer this thread to and fro, the footer text is too distracting | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1290 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
http://www.miningnerds.com/gold-mining-report-all-countries enjoy. | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 528 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 99.244.154.173 Rating: N/A |
got it List of heroic acts by YSR/YSJ: 1. Pulled many lands from Farmers for 2 Lakhs for a 1 Lakh property, and sold it @ of 15 to 20 Lakhs in the name of SEZ. Successfully the uneducated farmers misused 2 lakhs cash and started thier life as Coolie. 2. Successfully crushed Chiru/PRP using his second daughter, Jeevitha-RajaSekhar, Pawan Kalyan marriage case etc kind of ethical things... 3. Successfully pulled D-Goud out of TDP by threatening him regarding land cases.. 4. Successfully crushed TRS/KCR by threatening him that "He will encounter his Son" if he doesn't slow down on TRS... 5. Successfully earned 1 Lakh Crores and made his Son as "Yuva Raja" and a place beside Ambani, Tata etc kind of people. | ||
| Megapowerkkd Junior Artist Username: Megapowerkkd Post Number: 695 Registered: 05-2008 Posted From: 98.28.168.227 Rating: N/A |
 .thanks for your efforts annai | ||
| Ashton Hero Username: Ashton Post Number: 12658 Registered: 05-2008 Posted From: 64.20.45.178 Rating: N/A |
bro, do u know any good American GOLD mining company stocks? | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1289 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
MK, in google finance, use add columns. | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1288 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
MK, here is my take on SU. It highly correlates with OIL price. So, to take a decision on SU, you need to study OIL. Unless you authoritatively know what's going to be the deal with oil, I will not know how to take a decision on SU. Think of it this way. Their cost of extraction is going to be the same always. if the price of what they produce, oil, is high, they make more profits, otherwise less profits. So, what this means is, the oil stocks are going to be volatile. good thing, now they are cheap, because, oil is low. so, if we bet on the basic premise, oil s scarce, it makes a valid argument to buy an oil company. so, this is a strategic long term decision to make. next thing to consider is, are they so cheap and the yield is so good, we can use them to keep our safety money in them for their better yield than the bank deposits? so, take aways: what do we know about oil as a commodity? what is the yield side performance of an oil company? | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 527 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 99.244.154.173 Rating: N/A |
brother... revenue, return of equity ela choodalo teleedu List of heroic acts by YSR/YSJ: 1. Pulled many lands from Farmers for 2 Lakhs for a 1 Lakh property, and sold it @ of 15 to 20 Lakhs in the name of SEZ. Successfully the uneducated farmers misused 2 lakhs cash and started thier life as Coolie. 2. Successfully crushed Chiru/PRP using his second daughter, Jeevitha-RajaSekhar, Pawan Kalyan marriage case etc kind of ethical things... 3. Successfully pulled D-Goud out of TDP by threatening him regarding land cases.. 4. Successfully crushed TRS/KCR by threatening him that "He will encounter his Son" if he doesn't slow down on TRS... 5. Successfully earned 1 Lakh Crores and made his Son as "Yuva Raja" and a place beside Ambani, Tata etc kind of people. | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 526 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 99.244.154.173 Rating: N/A |
xom = p/e:9.58, return:? , market-cap: 353B, revenue: ? List of heroic acts by YSR/YSJ: 1. Pulled many lands from Farmers for 2 Lakhs for a 1 Lakh property, and sold it @ of 15 to 20 Lakhs in the name of SEZ. Successfully the uneducated farmers misused 2 lakhs cash and started thier life as Coolie. 2. Successfully crushed Chiru/PRP using his second daughter, Jeevitha-RajaSekhar, Pawan Kalyan marriage case etc kind of ethical things... 3. Successfully pulled D-Goud out of TDP by threatening him regarding land cases.. 4. Successfully crushed TRS/KCR by threatening him that "He will encounter his Son" if he doesn't slow down on TRS... 5. Successfully earned 1 Lakh Crores and made his Son as "Yuva Raja" and a place beside Ambani, Tata etc kind of people. | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 525 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 99.244.154.173 Rating: N/A |
sorry this is bp List of heroic acts by YSR/YSJ: 1. Pulled many lands from Farmers for 2 Lakhs for a 1 Lakh property, and sold it @ of 15 to 20 Lakhs in the name of SEZ. Successfully the uneducated farmers misused 2 lakhs cash and started thier life as Coolie. 2. Successfully crushed Chiru/PRP using his second daughter, Jeevitha-RajaSekhar, Pawan Kalyan marriage case etc kind of ethical things... 3. Successfully pulled D-Goud out of TDP by threatening him regarding land cases.. 4. Successfully crushed TRS/KCR by threatening him that "He will encounter his Son" if he doesn't slow down on TRS... 5. Successfully earned 1 Lakh Crores and made his Son as "Yuva Raja" and a place beside Ambani, Tata etc kind of people. | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 524 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 99.244.154.173 Rating: N/A |
su = p/e:6.28, return:? , market-cap: 120B, revenue: ? bp = List of heroic acts by YSR/YSJ: 1. Pulled many lands from Farmers for 2 Lakhs for a 1 Lakh property, and sold it @ of 15 to 20 Lakhs in the name of SEZ. Successfully the uneducated farmers misused 2 lakhs cash and started thier life as Coolie. 2. Successfully crushed Chiru/PRP using his second daughter, Jeevitha-RajaSekhar, Pawan Kalyan marriage case etc kind of ethical things... 3. Successfully pulled D-Goud out of TDP by threatening him regarding land cases.. 4. Successfully crushed TRS/KCR by threatening him that "He will encounter his Son" if he doesn't slow down on TRS... 5. Successfully earned 1 Lakh Crores and made his Son as "Yuva Raja" and a place beside Ambani, Tata etc kind of people. | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 523 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 99.244.154.173 Rating: N/A |
su = p/e:12.07, return:? , market-cap: 47B, revenue: ? List of heroic acts by YSR/YSJ: 1. Pulled many lands from Farmers for 2 Lakhs for a 1 Lakh property, and sold it @ of 15 to 20 Lakhs in the name of SEZ. Successfully the uneducated farmers misused 2 lakhs cash and started thier life as Coolie. 2. Successfully crushed Chiru/PRP using his second daughter, Jeevitha-RajaSekhar, Pawan Kalyan marriage case etc kind of ethical things... 3. Successfully pulled D-Goud out of TDP by threatening him regarding land cases.. 4. Successfully crushed TRS/KCR by threatening him that "He will encounter his Son" if he doesn't slow down on TRS... 5. Successfully earned 1 Lakh Crores and made his Son as "Yuva Raja" and a place beside Ambani, Tata etc kind of people. | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1287 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
MK, good categorization. lets evaluate each of them. I started with SU. I am using Google Finance and Google News for research. Let's read all the headlines on SU last 3 months, and also compare the basic stats of SU with peers. the numbers we will consider are: P/E, Return on Avg Equity, Market Cap, Revenue Peers are: XOM, BP | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1286 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: |
Firstly, i do not know any of these symbols. So, I have to start from scratch. Except for LDK, all are dividend players. All of them are once in 40-60 $ range, now less than $10. SO, let's see whats going on each of them. First is SU. They are oil sands extractors. Stay away from them for now. Reason, Exxon has found a new multi-billion barrel oil field. Libyan and Iraqi oil will be available. So, all of a sudden, oil does not seem to be that scarce any more. operationally, SU's return on equity is around 7%, which indicates low profit margin company. comparable to 27% of exxon. It highly correlates with OIL. So, why not just buy OIL? (silly question 1) BP is at P/E of 6 compared to SU's P/E of 13. Why not buy BP instead? (sq-2) Ans: Because BP may have legal exposure. OK, why not XOM. Ans: XOM too large for my liking. Why should I buy SU? It fell recently, so it will come up. It fell with OIL. Will OIL come back up? OIL is politically sensitive commodity linked with intl' events. I do not know the future. | ||
| Manchi_kurradu Junior Artist Username: Manchi_kurradu Post Number: 520 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 99.244.154.173 Rating: N/A |
MGI, LDK, BBD List of heroic acts by YSR/YSJ: 1. Pulled many lands from Farmers for 2 Lakhs for a 1 Lakh property, and sold it @ of 15 to 20 Lakhs in the name of SEZ. Successfully the uneducated farmers misused 2 lakhs cash and started thier life as Coolie. 2. Successfully crushed Chiru/PRP using his second daughter, Jeevitha-RajaSekhar, Pawan Kalyan marriage case etc kind of ethical things... 3. Successfully pulled D-Goud out of TDP by threatening him regarding land cases.. 4. Successfully crushed TRS/KCR by threatening him that "He will encounter his Son" if he doesn't slow down on TRS... 5. Successfully earned 1 Lakh Crores and made his Son as "Yuva Raja" and a place beside Ambani, Tata etc kind of people. | ||
| Hero Username: Twitter Post Number: 11208 Registered: 10-2009 Posted From: 69.126.242.15 Rating: N/A |
telugu lo cheppu Lets create a corruption-free India | ||
| Entikaburlu Comedian Username: Entikaburlu Post Number: 1285 Registered: 07-2011 Posted From: 67.247.83.224 Rating: N/A |
NYSE:SU NYSE:MGI TSE:BBD.B TSE:REI.UN NYSE:LYG NYSE:LDK MK, the first step is to categorize them into three groups. Let's do that. Humble (these are proven stocks with the capability to last 10 years are longer and stay relevant): Hungry (these will change the way world operates in future): Foolish (these are eye in the sky dreamers): |
