| Author | Message | ||
Chand Hero Username: Chand Post Number: 16082 Registered: 10-2013 Posted From: 183.83.159.115 Rating: N/A |
BJP vallu tappa PK gurinchi evaranna cheppara serious ga Zilla parishad , munciplatys anni assembly elections time lone jarigayi , edho 1-2 years gap unte anukovachu dabbu karchu pedite gelichese dattu ayite anni partys ollu dabbu unna vallake istaru Having said that ee sari tdp ki appudu unna antha postive untadi anukovatam ledhu - Ruling party anti incumbency - Youth lo support leka povatam - Rajullo split TDP chances impact chestayi PRP appudu mp segments midha ekkuva concentration cheyaledhu , now jsp working from there could help jsp | ||
Twotown Hero Username: Twotown Post Number: 13041 Registered: 09-2016 Posted From: 67.184.73.168 Rating: N/A |
Ycp won 5 out of 34 in eg/wg in 2014. Eesari enni cheppandi naa pata 15. | ||
Nyk Side Hero Username: Nyk Post Number: 5933 Registered: 04-2018 Posted From: 223.238.57.174 Rating: N/A |
Zilla Parishad boundaries veru... Population veru... Candidates veru... Polarization veru... Razole constituency lo TDP majority 3k.... Pakka YCP win avalsina seat... TDP candidate kharchu nearly 1 crore.... Votami guarantee ani pracharam kooda cheyledhu ... YCP candidate(irrigation engineer Jagan binamee) kharchu nearly 20 crores... expected 20k majority PK tour changed the fate... Results vachina roju naaku sambandham ledhu ani nidrapotunnadu... Karyakarthalu velli chepthe nammaledhu... Itlantivi chaala unnayi constituencies... Kakinada rural okati...also bheemavaram and kakinada segment lo chaala unnayi... Rajahmundry city aakula Sathyanarayana direct GA cheppadu ga.. Tadepalligudem BJP ela gelustundi asalu... | ||
Rbreddy Junior Artist Username: Rbreddy Post Number: 875 Registered: 02-2008 Posted From: 124.182.8.248 Rating: N/A |
--------------- Jai_ycp -------------- Nice analysis bro | ||
Nagfanscom Side Hero Username: Nagfanscom Post Number: 8145 Registered: 12-2006 Posted From: 49.206.201.228 Rating: N/A |
Good that this thread is going with no personal abuse and bashing on party leaders Lest keep same spirit in DB so that many neutrals can start posting their views CBN: Man with Vision & Mission facebook.com/NamoNaraYanam https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBIfjgfl4Ng | ||
Nagfanscom Side Hero Username: Nagfanscom Post Number: 8144 Registered: 12-2006 Posted From: 49.206.201.228 Rating: N/A |
its not sodhi...instead of text, we are trying to put in numbers CBN: Man with Vision & Mission facebook.com/NamoNaraYanam https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBIfjgfl4Ng | ||
Chand Hero Username: Chand Post Number: 16081 Registered: 10-2013 Posted From: 183.83.159.115 Rating: N/A |
ee sodhi antha lite Pk support cheyakamundhu kooda godavari zillalo zilla parishad elections same lines lo vachayi West Godavari Mottam lo YCP ki 2 zptc vachyi out of 46 , East lo kooda agency , Tuni tappa migata chotla almost sweep appudu evarni chusi vesaru tdp ki Ikkada edho Janasena support leka pothe YCP sweep chesedhi 2014 lo ani buildup istunnaru antha ledhu akkada Any how ee sari Janasena valla tdp ki nastami untadi kani ,ekkuva perigite YCP ki equally loss untadi Anty incumbency factor valla tdp loss ayite avochu | ||
Nagfanscom Side Hero Username: Nagfanscom Post Number: 8142 Registered: 12-2006 Posted From: 49.206.201.228 Rating: N/A |
Read it as less than 15k CBN: Man with Vision & Mission facebook.com/NamoNaraYanam https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBIfjgfl4Ng | ||
Nagfanscom Side Hero Username: Nagfanscom Post Number: 8141 Registered: 12-2006 Posted From: 49.206.201.228 Rating: N/A |
Tuni - favourable seat for YSRC in Godavari Districts. 2009: Cong 55,386 TDP 46,876 PRP 30,079 2014: YSRC 84,755 TDP 66,182 Entire Congress votes got transformed to YSRC with additional 30kvotes Now YSRC is going to loose 30% of those votes Kapu leaders in TDP are intact and TDP is going to gain 70% of those (30% from YSRC) and loose 30% of its votes polled in 2014 to 70-30 ratio to JS and YSRC 2019 Forecast : TDP 64125 YSRC 65284 JS 21526 Newly added voters may alter the result If YSRC pulls this seat with less than 5k majority then it will end up with max 5 seats in East Godavari district TDP has chance to pull this seat with slight margin (Below 1k) based on new voters choice and JS's campaing strategy CBN: Man with Vision & Mission facebook.com/NamoNaraYanam https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBIfjgfl4Ng | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17955 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 108.31.153.56 Rating: N/A |
 Ycp mi 2009 congress kanna marginal votes perigayi. There is no vote that went back to ycp from prp. Numbers prove that. | ||
Nagfanscom Side Hero Username: Nagfanscom Post Number: 8135 Registered: 12-2006 Posted From: 49.206.201.228 Rating: N/A |
State lo just 5 lakhs votes tho defeat ayyamu ani thega ogina batch ki Godavari districts lo TDP winning margin near to 15k per constituency anna vishayam ippudu ardham ayyindaa?? asalu 2014 lo YCP ki vacchina votes lo Kapu votes lenattu chepthunnaru ga! 2004 lo Anti Incumbency tho TDP nunchi "swing" ayina Kapu voters voted to Congress and they later split between PRP (70%) - Congress (30%) in 2009. And also 30% of TDP core kapu vote bank also shifted to PRP. And in 2014 these "swing" kapu voters split between TDP and YSRC in 60-40% ratio besides 90% "congress core" kapu vote bank getting shifted to YSRC from Congress 70% of core TDP kapu vote bank back to TDP from PRP So now in 2019 YSRC ki vacchina 40% of swing Kapu votes lo majority% (80%) will drift towards JS and also "core congress kapu" voters lo kuda oka 50% move away from YSRC due to Modi factor, Welfare schemes. So YSRC will loose 60-70% of Kapu votes it polled in 2014 2014 lo TDP ki vacchina Kapu votes lo JS ki shift ayye vallu oka 20-30% untaru So YSRC is going to loose more votes than TDP not only in Kapu voters section but also in SC,ST and Minority We will see best results for TDP with a consolidation in core vote bank such that this critical vote% will convert into max seats. CBN: Man with Vision & Mission facebook.com/NamoNaraYanam https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBIfjgfl4Ng | ||
Goldrush Side Hero Username: Goldrush Post Number: 5222 Registered: 03-2012 Posted From: 130.76.186.12 Rating: N/A |
Last time 43, e sari 50 ani antha fix yela chebutunnavuu? Tdp valla ads chudaledha under boya direction? Seema kii water vii? | ||
Gatti_gunde Megastar Username: Gatti_gunde Post Number: 25642 Registered: 02-2010 Posted From: 72.81.215.178 Rating: N/A |
memu EG+WG = 3 min 5 max laaga pothunnam meeku greater Rayalaseema lo 50 fix migithaa 100 lo 40 techukovaali power lo ki raavalante | ||
Goldrush Side Hero Username: Goldrush Post Number: 5221 Registered: 03-2012 Posted From: 130.76.186.12 Rating: N/A |
No 7 just from EG, Both 14 ravali. below ravali, yedhi tagginaa assamey memu. Seema - 30 Nel/pra - 15 Kr/Gun - 14 EG/WG - 14 UA - 15 | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17943 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 108.31.153.56 Rating: N/A |
He meant only EG. meeru 3-5 modiche tdp ki vaathe | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17941 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 108.31.153.56 Rating: N/A |
Manamu wekfare ekkuva isthamj ani baga oracharamu cheyyali. typical anti incumbency vuntundhi on mla. | ||
Gatti_gunde Megastar Username: Gatti_gunde Post Number: 25641 Registered: 02-2010 Posted From: 72.81.215.178 Rating: N/A |
rendu districts kalipi 7 aaaa JSP ke 3-5 expect chesthunnam | ||
Goldrush Side Hero Username: Goldrush Post Number: 5220 Registered: 03-2012 Posted From: 130.76.186.12 Rating: N/A |
Perfect analysis Jai_Ycp brother. But on other side Welfare Schemes will bring good voting to tdp especially from women vundacchu, that will be bad to ycp kadha? Yedho okati chesi maa mohana oka 7 ayenaa kottandi tugos. | ||
Kadapanagfan Legend Username: Kadapanagfan Post Number: 83275 Registered: 12-2006 Posted From: 223.230.24.186 Rating: N/A |
It's open Last time prp vote motttam TDP ki povadam valla disaster for ycp Pk kapu vote veyyyinchukogaligitey TDP ki kastam ycp ki plus | ||
Nanigadulocal Hero Username: Nanigadulocal Post Number: 19272 Registered: 09-2016 Posted From: 161.165.196.111 Rating: N/A |
appatlo congress hava nadichindhii andii ippudu kuda state divide avvakundaaaa congress undi PK party pettinaa chala mandhi congress kee estharuu for various reasons ... like Congi vs TDP vs JSP unteee state divide ayyaka equations maripoyayii .. | ||
Dhonifan Megastar Username: Dhonifan Post Number: 20121 Registered: 12-2012 Posted From: 72.193.103.35 Rating: |
nice analysis...looks realistic, truthful and logical | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17930 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 108.31.153.56 Rating: N/A |
Nuvvu emi chebutunna vo ardhamu katamledhu. You think these prp votes will go back to JS or stay with tdp | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17929 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 108.31.153.56 Rating: N/A |
2014 ki sympathy factor vundhi? Congress vote antoo emi ledhu. Vunnadhi distribute ayyindhi 2014 lo. We don’t need the full vote transfer to garner majority votes. | ||
Dada Side Hero Username: Dada Post Number: 5855 Registered: 12-2006 Posted From: 99.244.73.171 Rating: N/A |
@JaiYCP 0 The reasons why it does not work like that 2014 - there was still the YSR factor and Jagan jailed for going against Sonia etc and hence sympathy for him in the rural folk. PLus the family coming out and asking Who killed YSR etc etc. None of these will work in 2019. Now - some of those Congress voters who voted for Jagan in 2014 are looking towards TDP as an alternative. Because they will always be Anti BJP.Plus the fact that their hope that Congress is coming to power i the center. Hence that equation is crucial Plus - The majority of the PRP vote that moved to TDP in 2014 is solidly Anti Jagan. If they realize that by voting for Janasena, Jagan will win, then they may as well vote for TDP. Hence there will be selective movement of this vote from TDP to Janasena based on the JS candidate | ||
Nyk Side Hero Username: Nyk Post Number: 5925 Registered: 04-2018 Posted From: 106.208.131.144 Rating: N/A |
Saloon was in J.N. Road Rajahmundry | ||
Nyk Side Hero Username: Nyk Post Number: 5924 Registered: 04-2018 Posted From: 106.208.131.144 Rating: N/A |
After 2nd from elections date | ||
Nyk Side Hero Username: Nyk Post Number: 5923 Registered: 04-2018 Posted From: 106.208.131.144 Rating: N/A |
Actually Godavari YCP Di 2014 lo...PK changed the equation... Asalu TDP raadhu anukunnaru... Nenoka saloon hair cut cheyinchukodaniki vella... Saloon lo barber ni adiga... YCP vachestunnattundi kadha ani... Bayatemo teleedu gani moodu vaarala kindata varaku ikkada 90% seatlu YCP ne... Pedhayana vachi motham lepehadu annadu...(Pedhayana ante CBN anukunna)... Youth antha okka vote kooda YCP ki padaledhu annadu...youth anagane doubt vachi Curious ga adiga pedhayana ante CBN kadha ani ..... PK annadu... Mind block ayindi PK ni pedhayana ante | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17899 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: N/A |
ala ayyi vunte 2014 lo vote staggevi kadha ycp ki. appudu PRP ki power kostundhemo ane thought vundhi ippudu aa thought ee ledhu. Middle class youth ki farak padadhu power vochina rakunna. but poor ki adhi kadhu. we will see the votes JS get after May 23. PRP kochina dhanilo 70% avsthe wah pawan anali. | ||
Nyk Side Hero Username: Nyk Post Number: 5922 Registered: 04-2018 Posted From: 106.208.131.144 Rating: N/A |
Oka Vundu Oka Harsha Kumar Oka pallam Raju Oka jakkampudi Oka Mudragada Oka routu (Megas ani voogina NGL kooda Routhu ki vesadu) Plus kings and SCs complete against with split in BCs majority with Cong... Plus Cong welfare Annayya with first timers....and kop arrogance.. | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17895 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: N/A |
2014 mundu emi fight vundhi. why ycp got same or more votes than 2009. zilla lo oka vargamu oka vaipu velithe rendo vargamu opposite polarise avvtamu common. votes and seats are straight forward. JS entha perform chesthe TDP ki antha bokka. pallem lo petti power icharu TDP ki. what pawan got in return is peanuts. | ||
Nyk Side Hero Username: Nyk Post Number: 5921 Registered: 04-2018 Posted From: 106.208.131.144 Rating: N/A |
@ Jai_YCP Appati candidates and ippati candidates ni kooda pettu... Compare chedham... Also include the SC Vs kop fight in konaseema by so called ex MP just before the elections | ||
Kadapafan Legend Username: Kadapafan Post Number: 34388 Registered: 01-2008 Posted From: 80.216.234.161 Rating: N/A |
JS rise wlll dent tdp ani nenu munde cheppa, adi entha elaa ekkada anedi after pollse telustundi | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17889 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: N/A |
ne navvina analysis cheppochu kadha. numbers tell same story 2009 congress vote went into YCP (indulo beneficiary anuko) 2009 PRP vote added to TDP making them win 2019 lo JS will get 70% of PRP vote. TDP assam? | ||
Kadapafan Legend Username: Kadapafan Post Number: 34384 Registered: 01-2008 Posted From: 80.216.234.161 Rating: N/A |
edchinattundi analysis, 2014 lo triangular, 2009 lo only 2 parties against, how can they get lower votes | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17887 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: N/A |
PK chesina suppor tvalue PK ki kuda telidemo 2009 lo east plus west kalisi 9 seats vachina tdp 2014 kalla 29 (14=15) vachayi. asalu oka party dissolve ayithe aa votes other parties oka ration lo panchukuntay(60/40,70/30). ikkada avemi kadhu diretc ga 99:1 ratio lo tdp kichindhi PK effect moolana. emiti 20 seats viluva ante power. TDP won 103-20 = 83 seats. BJP 2 vesukunna 85. bob & vadi koduku roju sonia, PK photo ki dandamu pettina tappuledhu. | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17886 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: N/A |
konni constituencies where kams have some influence, TDp won in 2009 too. alanti chotla meeku vepisthamu. mee votes meeru vesukondi. tokki pattu naara teedhamu tdp dhi | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17885 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: N/A |
show me one segment where ycp got less votes than congress (2014 vs 2009). there are none in east and west godavari. all places they had increase marginally | ||
Kadapafan Legend Username: Kadapafan Post Number: 34383 Registered: 01-2008 Posted From: 80.216.234.161 Rating: N/A |
5 to 10 neeku easy gaa undi  | ||
Machomegastar Hero Username: Machomegastar Post Number: 19261 Registered: 02-2008 Posted From: 96.240.97.143 Rating: N/A |
Even With all the odds against jagan, he managed toget 5.... Getting 10 is not that hard i guess 2014: main villan congress ki ycp relation antagatti, second villan bjp help tho gelicharu... 2019: second villan bjp ki ycp ki relation antagatti main villan congress help tho gelavalani kutra pannuthunnaru... okkadu lo prakash raj (cbn) bammardhi ni sampi(SS) dandesthunatu ..akkada unna valla paristhithi (opp parties) | ||
Kadapafan Legend Username: Kadapafan Post Number: 34381 Registered: 01-2008 Posted From: 80.216.234.161 Rating: |
Jagan ki YSR range oohistunnav nuvvu, 2004 lo Govt YSR de, there would have been many beneficiaries who voted for Cong back again, nuvvu asalu idi consideration lone teesukovatledu repu Jagan odipothe you will not have any reason to even think of anukuntaa ee angles lo | ||
Mahi_chiru Junior Artist Username: Mahi_chiru Post Number: 888 Registered: 05-2008 Posted From: 171.161.56.16 Rating: N/A |
jai_ycp meru koncham JS candidates to help chayandi indirect gaa, just to make sure me pani easy  | ||
Amigo Side Hero Username: Amigo Post Number: 4539 Registered: 05-2011 Posted From: 144.160.5.101 Rating: N/A |
you analysis has some weight. but all districts are not the same | ||
Hero Hero Username: Hero Post Number: 13347 Registered: 09-2009 Posted From: 38.101.193.194 Rating: N/A |
kummu simple truth annai kummu | ||
Machomegastar Hero Username: Machomegastar Post Number: 19259 Registered: 02-2008 Posted From: 96.240.97.143 Rating: N/A |
 2014: main villan congress ki ycp relation antagatti, second villan bjp help tho gelicharu... 2019: second villan bjp ki ycp ki relation antagatti main villan congress help tho gelavalani kutra pannuthunnaru... okkadu lo prakash raj (cbn) bammardhi ni sampi(SS) dandesthunatu ..akkada unna valla paristhithi (opp parties) | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17884 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: N/A |
mods correct the type in thread title if possible. | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17883 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: |
you can see the votes. clear striking observation YCP got same or more number of votes than congress (due to new voters) in all. why did it loose badly. PRP votes straight away added to TDP. it is simple as 1+1 =2. Copule of places where YCP candidate could get soem votes from PRP they won. rest all gone. If JS performs same or 70% of PRP, TDp is gone and 2009 results will be simillar. YCP count starts from 10 onwards.  | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17882 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: N/A |
2014 Tuni 84,755 66,182 (YCP) Prathipadu 63,693 60,280 (YCP) Pithapuram 50,431 97,511 (IND/TDP) Kakinada Rural 52,096 61,144 43,742 (TDP) --kannababu was a rebel who dented YCP Peddapuram 65,251 75,914 (TDP) Anaparthy 82,025 83,398 (TDP) Kakinada City 52,467 76,467 (TDP) Ramachandrapuram 68,332 85,254 (TDP) Mummidivaram 68,736 98,274 (TDP) Amalapuram 64,031 76,444 (TDP) Razole 62,277 66,960 (TDP) Gannavaram-SC 61,462 74,967 (TDP) Kothapeta 88,357 87,644 (YCP) Mandapeta 64,099 100,113(TDP) Rajanagaram 72,589 81,476 (TDP) Rajahmundry City 53,154 79,531 (TDp/BJP) Rajahmundry Rural69,482 87,540 (TDP) Jaggampeta 86,146 72,214 (YCP) Rampachodavaram 52,156 43,934 (YCP) | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17881 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: N/A |
2009 segment congress tdp prp (winning party) Tuni 55,386 46,876 30,079 (Congress) Prathipadu 43,639 46,925 30,544 (TDP) Pithapuram 43,431 45,587 46,623 (PRP) Kakinada Rural 45,457 28,691 53,494 (PRP) Peddapuram 36,519 43,155 46,211 (PRP) Anaparthy 70,623 33,500 34,749 (Congress) Kakinada City 44,606 25,636 35,327 (Congress) Ramachandrapuram 56,589 23,252 52,558 (Congress) Mummidivaram 51,087 49,162 41,460 (Congress) Amalapuram 57,922 23,185 51,649 (Congress) Razole 52,319 25,286 46,450 (Congress) Gannavaram-SC 44,756 41,651 41,359 (Congrerss) Kothapeta 59,983 37,250 62,453 (PRP) Mandapeta 26,571 68,104 50,664 (TDP) Rajanagaram 44,584 51,520 38,656 (TDP) Rajahmundry City 41,369 40,085 39,384 (Congress) Rajahmundry Rural38,340 44,617 43,070 (TDP) Jaggampeta 51,184 33,277 50,395 (Congress) Rampachodavaram 32,654 21,851 20,771 (Congress) | ||
Jai_ycp Hero Username: Jai_ycp Post Number: 17879 Registered: 04-2015 Posted From: 100.36.224.18 Rating: N/A |
2009 cong got 11, TDP 4 PRP 4. 2014 CYP got 5 TDP got 14 what will happen in 2014. how did TDp increase its seats like that. what role will js play? |
