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Telangana: Possible outcomes

Chalanachithram.com DB » New TF Industry Related » Archive through December 07, 2018 » Telangana: Possible outcomes « Previous Next »
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Supremehero
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Username: Supremehero

Post Number: 1639
Registered: 09-2017
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 10:36 am:       


Kdnumber1:



vuncle a maata ki aa maat...

last 10days kcr speechs lo oopu ledu face lo kala ledu //


Daily 5 times batting kada adhe sabhalu... Neerasam vachesindi emo
 

Kdnumber1
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Post Number: 41497
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 10:10 am:       


Uno:



vuncle a maata ki aa maat...

last 10days kcr speechs lo oopu ledu face lo kala ledu

 

Siloan
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Username: Siloan

Post Number: 59794
Registered: 03-2008
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 10:02 am:       


Uno:



no doubts...its complete reddy polarization now
 

Dada
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Username: Dada

Post Number: 5649
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 10:01 am:       


Uno:




That is under others. I considered it as others for 2019...but majority of them should move to Congress due to the Caste factors.
But let us consider that they remain in others.
 

Uno
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 10:00 am:       


Siloan:

no brain storming needed to say it




cos during that time YSCRP is supported by YSR fans from Congress .It was splinter of congress party.Will they go back to congress ?
 

Uno
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 09:59 am:       


Uno:

voters shit



*shift
 

Siloan
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 09:58 am:       


Uno:

Where will this voters shit now? to Congress ?



no brain storming needed to say it
 

Uno
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 09:57 am:       


Dada:




I think YSRCP contested in last elections in Telangana and got around 4.5% Vote share.Where will this voters shit now? to Congress ?
 

Dada
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 09:55 am:       


Uno:

Which news paper you follow ?




Definitely not Times of India :-)
I follow CMIE and other official agencies
 

Uno
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 09:53 am:       


Dada:

T has the 2nd highest number of Farmer suicides in the last 4 years




Which news paper you follow ?
Facts is this and there are very few farmer suicides in TG and India in last 2 years.

https://epaper.timesgroup.com/Olive/ODN/TimesOfIndia/shared/ ShowArticle.aspx?doc=TOIDEL%2F2018%2F03%2F22&entity=Ar01110& sk=8E573E53&mode=text
 

Dada
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 09:51 am:       


Dada:

Kutami - Cong vote is intact, gains the Anti Incumbency (5%) and gets smaller share of TDP (6%) - Increase to 34%.




This should be 36%...
 

Dada
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 09:49 am:       

X factors

Magic of KCR.... If the rural population look at KCR, T sentiment etc, then it is a different scenario. That worked in 2014.
Plus in 2014, the opposition was divided and weak.

Money - All the parties are spending big money. Surprisingly Congress is also giving 4 digits per vote. They finally upgraded themselves.

Strategy - It is KCR vs CBN - most master strategists
 

Dada
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Posted on Thursday, December 06, 2018 - 09:39 am:       

In 2014:
TRS - 33%
Cong - 25%
TDP-15%
BJP-5%
MIM-7%
Others -15%

2019: Scenario 1
TRS - loses core T vote of students and employees (5%) but gains rural vote from TDP(5%) - Will stay at 33%
Kutami - Cong vote is intact, gains the Anti Incumbency (5%) and gets bulk of TDP (10%) - Increase to 40%...Will sweep the elections
BJP, MIM and Others - will retain thier vote share

2019: Scenario 2
TRS - loses Core T vote of students and employees (5%) but gains more TDP vote from settlers also (9%) - Will go upto 37%..Will win with slender majority + MIM support
Kutami - Cong vote is intact, gains the Anti Incumbency (5%) and gets smaller share of TDP (6%) - Increase to 34%...

This is not taking into account the Anti Incumbecy on local incumbent MLAs. This is a crucial factor in a tough fight.
PLus not taking inot account the farm distress that is evident all over the country - T has the 2nd highest number of Farmer suicides in the last 4 years.
Assuming that the employees+students who move away from TRS are 5%. They many actually be lesser or even slightly more. But there is Anti Incumbency in those segments.

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