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Indian RE - A nice read

Chalanachithram.com DB » New TF Industry Related » Archive through July 28, 2017 » Indian RE - A nice read « Previous Next »
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Sankara
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Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 06:37 am:       

In India REITs are referred as infrastructure investment trust fund (InvIT). They provide you returns similar to investments in real-estate and gives you liquidity to get back your money any time. Since it is too early with such funds, I think you can keep an eye on how they operate and perform in next one year.
 

Sankara
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Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 06:34 am:       

For investment purposes in real estate, Indian markets just started off with real estate investment trusts (I think they are called by a different name).

They work similar to equity mutual funds in that these trusts invest in commercial properties, hospitality and residential sectors (based on category) and distribute rentals through quarterly dividends. Capital appreciation if any will be reflected in the unit price of REITs.

REITs are hugely popular and widely accepted as part of retirement portfolios in Australia, Japan, Korea and Singapore markets.
 

Andhravodu
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Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 06:27 am:       


Chillarodu:


investing chesavu ante that's even better and agreed on returns. Edo vidham gaa yoh have to connect yourself to capital
 

Mental_sachinodu
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Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 06:02 am:       

although real estate is good investment vehicle, i am not convinced some of the indian locations are a good long term investment, especially residential ventures.

Home buying is never a smart investment, if you are a studious investor. but if you are like the most, and do not have any other major investments and are plannning on building equity, housing is one of the easier ways. If your housing loan amounts to an apartment rent, yes you made a wise choice.
 

Chillarodu
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Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 03:10 am:       


Andhravodu:

your theory is a lpsing bet. For most people, home ownership is the way to buildequuty and upgrade their position

Think of it this way. 15 years ago you didnt buy, you will not have been part of the real estate boom which followed after. Comparitively, you'd have saved money on rent, but lost on all the property increase. That's much much more...




Instead of buying house/apartment, I have invested/investing on real estate.
Returns wise, those investments yield much better than a house.
 

Andhravodu
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Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 02:35 am:       


Chillarodu:


your theory is a lpsing bet. For most people, home ownership is the way to buildequuty and upgrade their position

Think of it this way. 15 years ago you didnt buy, you will not have been part of the real estate boom which followed after. Comparitively, you'd have saved money on rent, but lost on all the property increase. That's much much more...
 

Junior_no1
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Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 02:31 am:       


Chillarodu:

I do not have sentiment of owning a house. I am happy with rental house and I am free to move or upgrade myself anytime I don't like the house I am living.


U R Lucky, GC or citizen aithey idi best approach ani naa akul
greatest invention ever by God- Admin
 

Chillarodu
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Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 02:28 am:       

I am not going to own the house unless I have excess money that is just sitting in the bank.
rent Vs buy is insane in India. Instead of paying mortgage I could rent 3-4 houses with that money or I could rent most luxurious house.

I do not have sentiment of owning a house. I am happy with rental house and I am free to move or upgrade myself anytime I don't like the house I am living.
 

Junior_no1
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Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 01:45 am:       

Govt thinking of revising land value to market Value? Only one rate,no black inka.thkkuvaki koni baaga paisal enaka eskuntonnaliki ade black money paguludhi
greatest invention ever by God- Admin
 

Boston_baba
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Posted on Thursday, July 27, 2017 - 12:26 am:       


Saarang:

Curious to learn why are you assuming it will only go up? Have you seen any historic trends. In my experience, it usually goes up when building activity has slowed due to a recession or home buying slump and it only takes a little bit of over supply for that trend to revert back.



Two fold reason. with economic reforms & other policy changes, lot of our investment avenues will become similar to developed world. i.e., interest rates will only see downward trend. I would be surprised if we ever see any Repo rate increase by RBI in near future.. thus, 4-6% savings interest rates will only go down.
coming to RE, if u buy apartment now, which is giving 4-6% rental yield today, with 5-10% rise rental values every year (this is very conservative estimate in Bangalore), your rental yield is increasing every year. with that, stagnation or slight depreciation of your apartment (it will appreciate, if u believe current RE slump is temporary) will still put ur investment in green.
TDP accepts that YSR govt irrigated 19lac acres in seemandhra,

in 1991, AP debt is 22% of GSDP, in 2004 its 34% of GSDP, in 2014 its 22% of GSDP.
 

Saarang
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 11:58 pm:       


Boeing747:

Xxx:

may be 10 ? times more populated

10 times kadu kani 4 to 5 times untadi population




The population living there should be able to afford it...anduke entha population unna rents will be tied to affordability ultimately. But, Inidan real estate ni vere markets nundi study cheyyatam kastam because of the amount of black money thats parked there and too many NRIs buying as external speculators.
 

Boeing747
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 11:55 pm:       


Xxx:

may be 10 ? times more populated




10 times kadu kani 4 to 5 times untadi population
 

Saarang
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 11:54 pm:       


Boston_baba:

with apartment price stagnation & rental appreciation, rental yield is at all time high of 4-6% p.a. now, where as savings interest rate is 4-6%p.a. compare that with scenario just 2yrs ago (2.5-4% p.a. to 7-10% p.a.). Going forward, this ratio is going to be further skewed towards rental yield. biggest grouse of any RE basher is lower rental yield, which is getting addressed now.
anywhere in the world from USA to vietnam (10-15% rental yield), rental yield matches with its inflation & SD interest rates... Slowly, India is reaching there.




Curious to learn why are you assuming it will only go up? Have you seen any historic trends. In my experience, it usually goes up when building activity has slowed due to a recession or home buying slump and it only takes a little bit of over supply for that trend to revert back.
 

Andhravodu
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 11:00 pm:       


Xxx:

2 beds 2 baths 1,273 sqft



Andhravodu:

US metro lo 300k ki 2k sft townhome


 

Scallion
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 11:00 pm:       

Manchi essay raasadu but vishayam nill and worg track patisthunaadu chadivina vaalanu
 

Boston_baba
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:56 pm:       

Lot of market correction, since the author learned his facts.

slowly, buying apartment in cities like bangalore/Hyd is making sense.
with apartment price stagnation & rental appreciation, rental yield is at all time high of 4-6% p.a. now, where as savings interest rate is 4-6%p.a. compare that with scenario just 2yrs ago (2.5-4% p.a. to 7-10% p.a.). Going forward, this ratio is going to be further skewed towards rental yield. biggest grouse of any RE basher is lower rental yield, which is getting addressed now.
anywhere in the world from USA to vietnam (10-15% rental yield), rental yield matches with its inflation & SD interest rates... Slowly, India is reaching there.
TDP accepts that YSR govt irrigated 19lac acres in seemandhra,

in 1991, AP debt is 22% of GSDP, in 2004 its 34% of GSDP, in 2014 its 22% of GSDP.
 

Xxx
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:50 pm:       


Ferrari:

2 bedroom flat ki 65-70 lakhs nadustundhi bangalore l




Vijaywada lo it is difficult to get with 60 lakhs , should go to outskirts or new apartments
-
 

Xxx
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:49 pm:       


Andhravodu:

Raleigh ni metro kinda veyam. Charlotte aite 300k ki raadu downtown lo




Financial capital lo , bank of america office pakkana kavalanta aala?

surroundings lo you can get
715 N Church St STE 713,
Charlotte, NC 28202
2 beds 2 baths 1,273 sqft

FOR SALE
$325,000
-
 

Ferrari
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:45 pm:       

correct ga cheppadu evado kaani..2 bedroom flat ki 65-70 lakhs nadustundhi bangalore lo..intha price pedithe basic amenities kuda sarigga undavu..summer vasthe inkka anthe snagathulu..porapaatuna oka rendu rojulu tanker rakapothe anthe sangathulu..power backup antadu..cut chesthe hall lo oka light bedroom lo oka fan kitchen lo oka light velugatadhi power pothe..

but appreciation mathram daarunamga perugutadhi..adhi endhuku perugutadho ardham kaadhu..sagam flats Awala annai lantollu konesi rent ki ichi U.S lo untaru..akkada unde vadu inkka tappadhu ra anukoni chematodchi adhe 65 lakhs petti kontadu..ee flats ki rates peragdaniki one of the main reason NRI's anukunta..
 

Andhravodu
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:42 pm:       


Xxx:


Raleigh ni metro kinda veyam. Charlotte aite 300k ki raadu downtown lo
 

Xxx
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:40 pm:       


Andhravodu:




NC Raleigh and Charlotte ,
-
 

Redclaw777
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:39 pm:       


Xxx:




Refers to a posh apt from a reputed builder in an area like Madhapur....aah rate....look at the square ft I mentioned....4000 sft.

Today...in the hottest area Gacchibowli....we can get a 2000 sft apt. for less than 1 Cr.

Best place and time to invest in RE in India is Hyderabad today.
 

Andhravodu
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:37 pm:       


Xxx:


US metro lo 300k ki 2k sft townhome ekkada vastundo cheppu oka rendu tosestaa
 

Xxx
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:35 pm:       


Redclaw777:

The same size wud cost not more than 2 Cr in a very good locaity in Hyd from a good builder,




$300k america lo may be possible for an average joe to earn that kind of money , and they will get a decent home , but only an apt in HYD for 2 cr ?
-
 

Redclaw777
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:32 pm:       

While the article might be true and apply to cities like Bangalore/Mumbai where RE has already hit the roof....but not Hyderabad where RE is still the most affordable vis-a-vis the infrastructure it offers.

For eg....the author says it costs 6 Crs for a good apt in Bangalore which should translate into 15000 psft for a 4000 sft Apt.

The same size wud cost not more than 2 Cr in a very good locaity in Hyd from a good builder,

I guess a lot wud vary from city to city and Hyd is in the best phase it's been for the past 8 yrs.
 

Andhravodu
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:26 pm:       


Gsn1:


you can easily afford a house in Hyderabad. You just don't want to live in those areas in the back of your mind. I'm sure you are rich but that's not enough to afford a place in kalorama neighborhood of dc. Just saying
 

Xxx
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:24 pm:       


Vishvak:

Less land is not correct.




we are 1/3 size of US and may be 10 ? times more populated
-
 

Vishvak
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 10:19 pm:       


Xxx:

Less land more population in India , with limited development


Less land is not correct... Poor infra and bad town planning...

CBN cheppinattu we are not building cities, we are building slums...



Vi veri universum vivus vici


 

Xxx
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 09:52 pm:       


Gsn1:

It doesn't make sense.




Less land more population in India , with limited development
-
 

Gsn1
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 09:46 pm:       

I partially agree. The prices are ridiculous. I tell all my friends/relatives that I can afford a house in Washington DC Metro, but cann't do the same in Hyderabad.

DC is supposed to world capital (being capital of most powerful country in the world) and has all the infrastructure that is already firmly established and world class.

Where as HYD metro, half of the metro doesn't have basic infrastructure and still commands the prices that are way more than DC Metro.

It doesn't make sense.

On the other hand, RE is always location location location. From this point of view, we cann't compare the prices between DC Metro & HYD Metro (very hot for RE market).
 

Andhravodu
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 09:07 pm:       

Opinions di emundi, pratodiki okati untundi. Actual market indicators show otherwise...
 

Vishvak
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Posted on Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 09:03 pm:       

http://www.huffingtonpost.in/manu-rishi-guptha/why-its-plain -stupid-to-buy-a-house-in-india_a_21702571/

Why It's Plain Stupid To Buy A House In India
The crash of the Indian housing market is imminent.

Two incidents gave me pause for thought recently.

Firstly:

Just as I was about to tee off at the Milpitas golf course in California this September I heard a "fore" and was fascinated to see a fellow golfer tee off from the backyard of his home. I thought, "What a life/luxury!"

I realised that this 7200 yard golf course is inhabited by a mere 50 families and Zillow (an app that dispenses info on real estate prices) indicated the price of each bungalow was in the range of US$1.1-1.3 million (approx ₹7.5 crore).


'Yes, we do sell affordable homes, if you happen to be Donald Trump.'
One cannot ignore that the US of A was built on the premise that infrastructure (rail, road, bridges etc) are the bedrock of economic activity and the growth of any nation. And the USA has by far the best infrastructure in the world.

Secondly:

The chief accountant of one of the top three builders in Bangalore visited me looking for a job and shared that the builder hadn't sold more than three apartments amongst their entire national inventory in the last four months.


Owning a house at present Indian valuations is likely to make you nervous not confident.
After my four-week sojourn in the US, when I returned to India, it took me a whopping 2.5 hours to travel a distance of 30km from the airport to home, And along the way in a traffic jam, I saw a larger than life hoarding of a top Indian builder offering a four-bedroom apartment "starting at only ₹6.5 crores"—that's about a million USD.

This indicates and is reflective of a demographic—that there are a large number of people in Bangalore for whom a starting price of only a million USD for an apartment might seem attractive. And "only" is supposed to significantly enhance the value proposition of the apartment that's built right next to a crematorium and on illegally reclaimed land near a gutter that emanates more methane than a human body and tolerance can possibly fathom.

Well this is the reality of a country that's falling apart due to the officer-builder nexus/mafia, and where tier-1 and tier-2 cities are choking to death because of rampant construction.

What a sham on the part of the builder and what ignorance on the part of the gullible home buyer.

The lack of town planning and inherently corrupt city councils have made most cities un-habitable in India. God forbid if ever (once in a lifetime) one has to transport an aged parent or loved one to hospital, he/she will has a great likelihood of being sacrificed along the way because an ambulance has no way/infrastructure to beat the traffic jams.

So that raises a question—what is really the right price of real estate? How in the eyes of that builder is that apartment worth "only" a million USD?

Every asset has an intrinsic value. The cost of replacement or the cost of building the asset is the intrinsic value. Add to it the profit of the seller/maker and that leads to the discovery of the fair market price.

Most builders who claim to have a 25% attributed to super built-up area actually have 40% mark-up! So a big fraud there.
For way too long (almost since the beginning of 2001) real estate prices have seen only one direction and that's up. I have a few acquaintances in Gurgaon and Delhi and Chandigarh who gave up their jobs in order to deal in real estate. I've seen them buying an asset in the morning and then selling it within two days at a neat profit. It's almost like the tulip mania (when the Dutch thought that the world was going to run out of tulips).

India's Black market economy helped. It is conjectured that the top six politicians in India have a combined net worth in benami property and assets that is equal to or more than the top 50 richest people in the Forbes list. For way too long, corruption has siphoned off the nation's and taxpayers' wealth to fill the coffers of people in positions of authority. The lack of a robust tax and tracking system has allowed a parallel black economy to mushroom and fuelled a bubble in almost all asset classes, but above all in real estate.

The general cost of construction per sq feet (at standards that are followed in India) is about ₹2000. Builders have a funny inexplicable formula of "super built up." They sell part of all public areas to the buyer and add that to the area of the flat. Most say that the mark-up in the area sold is only 25-27 %. That implies that if one is buying a 2000 sq ft apartment, one is likely to get 1600 sq ft of carpet area. Well if this is the norm and is legalised, it's good too. But the truth is something else.

Today, the monthly installment over 20 years (if you own a house) is generally 3.5 times the present monthly rental of the same house.
My mother, like all mothers on the planet, wants to see her son own a house. The proverbial "one's own roof over one's head" in times of future distress. So a few years back I did start looking for a house but instinctively bought a laser area calculator (digital planimeter) to find the floor area of the house being sold. I used to carry the device during each visit to an apartment. Surprisingly most builders who claim to have a 25% attributed to super built-up area actually have 40% mark-up! So a big fraud there.

A house is an emotional investment and very few people carry a planimeter when selecting a potential purchase. And the brokers have a knack of playing with buyers' emotions by painting the picture of a perfect home and actually talking about the location of the temple, the balcony , the virgin sun rays in the morning and generally making a customer believe that the said asset is being eyed by seven other prospective buyers. And human beings are emotional, gullible fools generally governed by cognitive biases.

Besides the 15% defraudment (unavoidable premium that one pays for the other person's fraud) one has to pay for parking and floor uprise, etc etc. Talking of Bangalore in particular, a typical third grade apartment in a smelly location ends up costing about ₹20,000 (UA$300) per sq ft of carpet area—and by the way you don't own a piece of that land.

The recent demonetisation has taken the wind out of the sails of this Ponzi scheme and the forthcoming RERA (Real Estate Regulation Act) is likely to bring some discipline but how will the builders make their infinite profits while duping the gullible customer? They won't be able to.

And that will start the big correction in the real estate market.

Today, the monthly installment over 20 years (if you own a house) is generally 3.5 times the present monthly rental of the same house. So if someone typically buys a home between the ages of 35-40, he/she is likely to pay 3.5 times the probable rent of that same place in EMIs (equated monthly instalment). Can you imagine paying 3-4 times your monthly rent for the next 20 years of your life just to gloat about owning a house—and then being stuck with it?

Imagine your desire to live your life fearlessly and meaningfully on your own terms but not being able to do so because of the burden of your EMI?
The only certainty in life is the uncertainty around it. Imagine being retrenched in a downsizing exercise, or having to change your job? Owning a house at present Indian valuations is likely to make you nervous not confident.

Imagine being unreasonably bollocked by your boss and that irresistible feeling once every few years to tell him to go to hell. But not being able to, because the payment of EMI is just round the corner.

Imagine your desire to live your life fearlessly and meaningfully on your own terms and conditions but not being able to do so because of the burden of your EMI?

The logic behind the "round the corner" housing market crash is simple. Too much easy money has flowed into this asset class and the present prices aren't sustainable. Either the rentals have to double from the present levels (which they can't because that's a function of demand and supply) or the real estate prices have to correct by at least 50% from the present levels.

Sadly, I believe my mom will never see the proverbial roof over her son's head in the near future.



Vi veri universum vivus vici


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