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I have a math modeling doubt

Chalanachithram.com DB » New TF Industry Related » Archive through July 17, 2017 » I have a math modeling doubt « Previous Next »
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Doosukelta
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Username: Doosukelta

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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 03:13 pm:       


Andhravodu:

guess correct ye.



oh nice to know b.sc mat aa msc kuda chsava uncle,.....present programmer or developer or teser....
idi moderator cheta cheripiveyabadindi...
 

Andhravodu
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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 10:55 am:       


Bharateeyudu:


guess correct ye. But weather and forecasting ante baga pichi, konta understanding undi
 

Bharateeyudu
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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 06:38 am:       


Andhravodu:




saaru meeru mathsaaa... mari intha active mod ante yedo keyboards ni vaththe pani anukunna
 

Platypus
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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 05:12 am:       

https://cloud.google.com/ml-engine/
 

Platypus
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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 05:09 am:       


Doosukelta:

deenni model chesi trend chusi...variation note chesi.... future prediction cheyalante best method yenti...




Use the power of cloud. Train the Google ML with sample data and then feed the rest of it. You can get away with a free tier for this.
 

Andhravodu
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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 03:48 am:       


Doosukelta:


supercomputers routinely churn hundreds of thousands or more points for weather forecasting. Ecwmf uses thousands more computers than gfs. One article on how much computing power is present and how much they spend

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-europeans-bet ter-than-americans-at-forecasting-storms1/
 

Doosukelta
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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 03:31 am:       


Andhravodu:

but the output will be no better than a guess




think not...beause...lot of variables unnai...annitni include chesi forecast cheste 95% probability tho predctions vastunnayi...like eeroju particular place lo rain padocchu ani 12-24 hours advance ga cheppocchu ....but the output is in prbabilistic scale....like based on the pesent climatic conditions in a city(temp,humidity etc etc) and satellite image of the cloud pattern, wind direction...there's 90% chance of occurrence of so and so intensity rainfall .....or 70% probability etc ....

nenu alane oo model create cheyyali....but first is to drive the trend and change in trend.....idi chestee 80% work done....and prediction matram i can try and give some model which may predict long term variation...based on trend in past...done deal for 6 months...
idi moderator cheta cheripiveyabadindi...
 

Andhravodu
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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 03:17 am:       


Doosukelta:

Present how rainfall pattern changed in years and how it may in future...

Alane discharge in rivers past lo yela undi ippud yela undi trend chusi future


gor stiff like these, 175k data points won't help at all. Spread out over 30 years, you will be able to mine, but the output will be no better than a guess
 

Doosukelta
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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 02:59 am:       


Saarang:




Present how rainfall pattern changed in years and how it may in future...

Alane discharge in rivers past lo yela undi ippud yela undi trend chusi future prediction ki oo model... But it must keep on updating as data is flowing continuously today yesterday data include cheskunta update avutu undali...

So first trend chudali next predict cheyali.... Ila oo model create cheyali..

And BTW rainfall ki dependent variables chala untai like humidity temp etc etc

Naku konni months time undi...
idi moderator cheta cheripiveyabadindi...
 

Doosukelta
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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 02:51 am:       


Saarang:




Thanks sarang can you give me online courses or softwares that can be learned for it... Please
..TIA
idi moderator cheta cheripiveyabadindi...
 

Dreameronaroll
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Posted on Saturday, July 15, 2017 - 12:47 am:       

Try time series analysis with variations. YOu can use Excel for this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gHdYEZA50KE
The one and only Powerstar!!!
 

Saarang
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Posted on Friday, July 14, 2017 - 07:26 pm:       

What exactly are you trying to predict?

Its tempting to do a a simple regression for any data set...it will not work in this case...as you have time series data along with cross-sectional data. Regression only works well for cross-sectional data. Most time series data has strong auto-correlation (i am sure weather data too has this), i.e. the value of variable you are trying to predict in time period t-1 will have a strong correlation with value in time period t. So, the variable is predictive of itself in time more than other variables.

When you have this (time series and cross-sectional data), you have use models that come under panel data analysis. Ilaantivi chesi chaala rojulu ayyindhi...but study about fixed effects models and random effects models and try to apply one of them. GARCH models laantivi try cheyyochu but it will take a few months to learn and implement them.
 

Anthamidhya
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Posted on Friday, July 14, 2017 - 06:23 pm:       


Doosukelta:



Doosukelta:



try doing regression on all variables first, then do another one with variables that have p < 0.05.
now you can predict future y value by giving expected values for your variables in the equation
 

Doosukelta
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Posted on Friday, July 14, 2017 - 06:15 pm:       

ippudu nenu climate modelling cheyyali na deggara oka 12 climate variables wth past 30-40 years daily data undi......ante roughly 175,000 data points....

deenni model chesi trend chusi...variation note chesi.... future prediction cheyalante best method yenti....naku exel,c,c++ vacchu....

db lo sala mandi ee field lo unaru abatti can you direct me in this....

best way to do modeling and predicting trends and deriving relationships.....
idi moderator cheta cheripiveyabadindi...

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