| Author | Message | ||
     Simhapuri_kurrodu Hero Username: Simhapuri_kurrodu Post Number: 11617 Registered: 07-2008 Posted From: 205.157.110.11 Rating: N/A |
hopefully... | ||
| Sbk2012 Side Hero Username: Sbk2012 Post Number: 2631 Registered: 01-2014 Posted From: 216.31.211.11 Rating: N/A |
closed at low of the day. Tomorrow and next week more bloodbath. | ||
| Xxx Side Hero Username: Xxx Post Number: 7187 Registered: 04-2009 Posted From: 71.75.156.215 Rating: N/A |
vjw come back with your id please - | ||
| Sbk2012 Side Hero Username: Sbk2012 Post Number: 2626 Registered: 01-2014 Posted From: 216.31.211.11 Rating: N/A |
By the time you know that the economy is in recession, SPX may lose 40% from the top. imo | ||
| Jalsa Megastar Username: Jalsa Post Number: 26222 Registered: 02-2008 Posted From: 47.20.5.96 Rating: N/A |
Recession ayithe undadhu ga....may be a strong pullback and slow ga peruguthundhi. will be ready with cash to invest. | ||
| Newguy123 Megastar Username: Newguy123 Post Number: 22671 Registered: 01-2009 Posted From: 107.77.70.95 Rating: N/A |
Major correction avvalante edanna event trigger avvali. Ippudemundi? Nenu anukovatam next earnings varaku ilage kottukuntadi. Edanna theda vasthe appudu padochu Nuvvu cheppina years kakunda migatha years ki kuda september vuntadi  | ||
| Sbk2012 Side Hero Username: Sbk2012 Post Number: 2624 Registered: 01-2014 Posted From: 216.31.211.11 Rating: N/A |
The longest bull market has ended. Money on the down side or gold. | ||
| Sbk2012 Side Hero Username: Sbk2012 Post Number: 2623 Registered: 01-2014 Posted From: 216.31.211.11 Rating: N/A |
Some of history’s worst stock market crashes, including the crash of 1929, 1987, and 2008, occurred in September and October after rallying in the spring or summer. | ||
| Newguy123 Megastar Username: Newguy123 Post Number: 22670 Registered: 01-2009 Posted From: 107.77.70.95 Rating: N/A |
Nuvvu short aa kompadeesi mkt padina roju matrame vastavu | ||
| Sbk2012 Side Hero Username: Sbk2012 Post Number: 2622 Registered: 01-2014 Posted From: 216.31.211.11 Rating: N/A |
Are Stocks Heading For A Crash This Fall? At the start of last month, I published a piece in which I showed twenty-three charts that I believe prove that the U.S. stock market is experiencing a classic speculative bubble that will end in a crash or severe bear market. The charts included valuation and sentiment indicators that were at levels last reached at the peaks of the Dot-com bubble in 2000 and the housing and credit bubble in 2007. At the end of July, the Dow and SP500 experienced a brief pullback of about 5 percent on rising geopolitical fears and a sell-off in the high-yield debt market. Though I believe that the bull market is another bubble, I utilize technical or chart analysis for gaining insight into short-term market direction. If I see signs that the market is likely to rise in the short-term, I acknowledge the bullish signal despite my longer-term bearish view. For example, on the night of the sharp July 31st sell-off, I published a chart analysis of the major U.S. stock indices and explained why a short-term rebound was likely. Since then, the Dow, SP500, and Nasdaq have erased their losses and rose by roughly 6 percent to hit fresh highs. As we head into the fall – a historically weak season for stocks – it is a good time to reiterate the need for caution as stocks trade near all-time highs. Some of history’s worst stock market crashes, including the crash of 1929, 1987, and 2008, occurred in September and October after rallying in the spring or summer. I must emphasize that I am not actually predicting a crash this fall (thought it certainly could happen), but rather discussing the risks and potential sell-off catalysts to be aware of. One of the most worrisome developments is the record amount of margin debt that traders are currently using to bet on rising stock prices (see chart below). Traders have borrowed approximately $180 billion worth of margin, which far surpasses the amount of margin debt used during the Dot-com and 2007 stock bubbles. When a genuine bearish catalyst finally presents itself, bullish traders will be forced to unwind these leveraged bets in a panic, causing a powerful bear market. U.S. stocks still have not had a 10 percent correction in three years, so the major indices are precariously overstretched on a technical basis, which increases the risk of a correction at any given point. There are several potential catalysts to be aware of that could bring about a correction or even worse this fall: 1) Monetary tightening: the completion of the Fed’s QE taper and upcoming Fed Funds Rate hikes The Federal Reserve is slated to complete the tapering of its QE3 program in October. Quantitative easing has been one of the primary driving forces behind the current stock bubble, so its ending is a reason for concern. The ending of QE1 and QE2 led to 9 percent and 11.6 percent respective sell-offs in the SP500. The Fed is also expected to raise its benchmark Fed Funds interest rate in early 2015 after keeping rates at virtually zero percent for almost six years. While the Fed will likely raise rates at a slow pace, it still represents the gradual ending of one of the market’s major driving forces. 2) U.S. mid-term elections Mid-term election season is right around the corner, which creates political uncertainty and may encourage investors to book some profits in advance. 3) Geopolitical flare-ups in Ukraine and the Middle East Geopolitical events are largely unpredictable, but the current tension with Ukraine-Russia and the U.S.’ campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria have the potential to spook the markets. A Look At The Technicals As stated earlier, I use technical or chart analysis to gain better insight into short-term market movements than longer-term fundamental analysis allows. The SP500 is above its 1,990 support level, which is a positive sign if the index can stay above it. A break below this level, however, would increase the chances of a pullback or correction. The sharp decrease of trading volume (which the Dow and Nasdaq also display) as the SP500 rallied in the past month is somewhat concerning because it shows less conviction than if volume stayed flat or increased. SP500Source: StockCharts.com Unlike the SP500, the Dow is still below its overhead resistance level, which could impede the rally. A break above this level would be a positive confirmation. DowSource: StockCharts.com The Nasdaq Composite index shows the strongest relative strength of all the major U.S. stock indices as it trades above its 4,500 support level. A break below this level would be a bearish confirmation. NasdaqSource: StockCharts.com The U.S. stock indices are still in an uptrend for now, but be mindful if they abruptly reverse and break back below their key support levels. If I was trading this market, I would use a trailing stop loss order to capture possible further upside while protecting against a correction if sentiment changes. Even though I believe this market is experiencing a bubble that will eventually end badly, I am also aware that bubbles can lead to explosive, parabolic rallies before popping. | ||
| Sbk2012 Side Hero Username: Sbk2012 Post Number: 2621 Registered: 01-2014 Posted From: 216.31.211.11 Rating: N/A |
September 23, 2014 Is A Market Top Forming? 6 Things To Watch For In the stock market, there seems nothing more romantic than someone ‘calling’ a market top. At some point we’ve all likely succumbed to making our own ‘call’, eventually wising up and yielding to the grizzled veteran approach of insisting that market tops are indeed a process and not a particular point. This post is not a ‘call’, but if I were to go looking for the process, the following 6 items would show up on my scavenger hunt. An explosion in outlandishly bullish price targets. This can involve both market indices and individual stocks. When PaineWebber slapped a $1000 price target on Qualcomm (QCOM) on December 29, 1999, it didn’t mark an absolute market top but it most likely became part of the process. Then, consider the timing of Businessweek covering Harry Dent’s Dow 40,000 ‘call’ on March 27, 2000. Note: my idea of outlandish targets does not include an obsession over psychologically important round numbers (i.e. Dow 17,000) or stocks reaching multiples of $100, which may be more empathic of longer bullish trends – it’s the head scratching analyst or strategist price targets screaming to you that animal spirits have completely run amok. Narrowness in the market leaders. If you remember the days of the Nifty Fifty you’re likely collecting Social Security now, but the transfixion in the early 1970’s over a small number of stocks gave way to a grueling decade-long bear market. Our most recent peaks in 2000 and 2008 gradually became more and more concentrated in fewer and fewer outperformers prompting numerous explanations of market performance by stripping out the top 10 or 20 performers (or even fewer). It’s time for some serious evaluation when a substantially smaller number of stocks do the heavy lifting. And this fits well with the market tops process. Consensus/feeling that there really even isn’t a possibility of a market decline. This one gets more difficult to gauge. Who’s calling for the S&P 500 to drop 20% or more? (minus the usual suspects). Does the thought of a 5% selloff seem blasphemous as some type of force-field seems to have its grip on the markets suspending normal cycles? At its extreme, this one tends to evolve into the market axiom that the move which will punish the most participants is eventually the path taken. Higher levels of investor dissatisfaction and increased anxiety. Yes, both seem a bit counter-intuitive. When you see large pockets of investors lamenting the fact that markets have only advanced 8% over the past 5 months and have regrettably stalled, their restlessness during periods of outperformance should start to send smoke signals that a market top may be in sight. On the flip side, 1-2% declines that are increasingly met with sheer horror and angst are another sign to me that the trend may be nearer an end than advancing further. An explosion in articles and stories about index investing. Recently, Vanguard eclipsed $3 Trillion in assets, matching the entire hedge fund industry and stories exalting passive management are exceeding ones on why to hire active managers by a wide ratio. If one could chart the comfortableness of index investing, I surmise that we’d see some very compelling correlations to that period’s most recent performance. I’ve never seen a market strategy (and index investing is definitely a strategy) that has taken on ‘no-brainer’ status, that eventually wasn’t tested, struggled, or even repealed. Exhaustion of Cockiness. This is the #1 tell I’m personally looking for when concerned about a market top. When bull runs are in their heyday, the brashest and most aggressive investors tend to possess bravado that nothing can go wrong (and tell you about it every chance they get). Eventually though, there comes a time when markets get more narrow (see above), and smaller advances disappoint investors and trader restlessness grows. Markets start to internally break down, and while markets stay suspended near high levels, the selloffs tend to start attacking the riskiest positions first leaving the indices to appear unscathed. If the most aggressive positions take their lumps the earliest, the cockiness quotient takes a hit, producing an environment where investor boldness may retreat and act as a leading indicator prior to the market averages beginning their descent. Investors point to a myriad of other indicators near market tops – margin debt, an overly hot IPO market, and low levels of bearishness are a few that come to mind. The most difficult thing with all mentioned in this post though is hindsight bias, and the courage to act accordingly in the moment you think a peak or turn is occurring. It’s easy to point back to the AOL (AOL) / Time Warner (TWX) merger as a ‘tell’ years after the fact but it’s far more difficult to take action when you think the time is nigh. That there has likely been a massive trend intact makes contrary action all the harder due to pressures of following the herd. | ||
| Sbk2012 Side Hero Username: Sbk2012 Post Number: 2620 Registered: 01-2014 Posted From: 68.96.84.187 Rating: N/A |
Bull market has been ended, period. |
