| Author | Message | ||
     James Junior Artist Username: James Post Number: 822 Registered: 04-2014 Posted From: 68.168.96.205 Rating: N/A |
Sridhar Gondhi May 20, 2014 at 4:35 PM Sir, y’day i want to put this update for your comment on how can we get 3% swing to YSRP side, following are my thoughts My reading is Narsaraopet, Bapatla & Kakinda are below 35,000 votes all with TDP and Ongole/Nellore are less than 15k with YCP. Inspie of Modi wave the 3 seats are less than 35k, then it could have been easily won by YSRP, but for modi. few seats will swing anyways next 5yrs, few scenarios here on why swing might happen 1. Assuming if rains are good for next 5yrs, then CBN development method will be accepted, if not…we know what will happen…. CBN willproject huge multi storeyed stuff which doesn’t appeal to farmers, they will forget that he is the same man who has waived off crop loans (assuming he keeps his promise) 2.If witch hunting of YSRP goes on and TDP tries to bull doze opposition party which was selected by 1.29 crore, then it will cause some more damage to his development plank….so its on CBN now ,whether this new state want to follow Tamilnadu kind of politics (or) show some big heart like YSR , show ignorance…..and just go with single minded development….this is crucial juncture for seemandhra…it could take any turn…you shouldn’t be surprised to see greater rayalaseema agitation picking up……if witch hunt goes for a bit too far…..because of the caste equations…it depends on who exploits what kind of scenario…..i’m not saying that it will happen exactly like that , but there is a chance…..who gave chance to KCR in 2001? In 2009 he just moved to Delhi after the elections and even a FIR was filed in Mahabub nagar const as “KCR missing†and within 4 months in Oct’09 he is back with a bang…creates havoc for next 4yrs…… 3. The whole equation might change a lot in terms of votes….people are unpredictable…..its proven that majority of them don’t show gratitude (or) atleast don’t remember the benefits given by previous govt….if in 2019 elections someone say’s all “house loans†will be waived off (or) find out what loan they are using like “personnel loans†& waive off, who knows middle class people might vote big to YSRP….and the municipalities won could be reverse in 2019 with YSRP 60+ and TDP 15+ :-). Its “Innovation & desperation†at its peak that drives the whole thing…. 4.If “population wise dominant caste†feels that the “economically sound caste†have shown enough of tail wagging and not doing an inclusive development in coastal till 2019, and if that creates some tension in Guntur/krishna then votes will swing for atleast 4-5 MP seats just like that……this is exactly the issue for telangana agitation & even for “Tamil / Sinhaleese†problem 5.If CBN follows creating disturbance through “telangana TDP unit†to KCR (which he has already started) & If KCR sees CBN as a threat to his chair, which he wants to pass on to his son/nephew, he will trigger another agitation that “From telangana we will not release water unless & untill all the fields in sagar left bank canal get water 1st and only then it should be given to right bankâ€â€¦.that creates tension between andhra & telangana and YSRP exploits it saying its all fault of CBN, saying where is the need to poke KCR? Andhra people are soft spoken…dont want to have tensions with border states…and they might think ok YSRP as an alternative who dont poke KCR…that will cause a swing…..this is what exactly happened in krishna delta 2000-2004, when karnataka was not releasing water untill “Almatty†was full ,under the control of cong govt…so people thought like ok, YSR is an alternative who will maintain good relation with neighbour, since they both are congress govt’s and can influence….thats it …it resulted in havoc to CBN from his same caste units….loosing badly across krishna delta regions 6. Andhra is at a delicate stage right now…KCR has hurt CBN’s ego like anything in past 4 yrs…sounds like CBN is waiting for a chance to hit KCR…if CBN disturbs relations with neighbor state…YSRP will come back & say that this is why we haven’t critized KCR…which will remind them of 2014 Pawan campaign….this goes in to people’s mind and they wont reveal in pre poll survey….but do silent voting…resulting in some swing to YSRP….CBN will be surprised to see that he lost, inspite of exit poll predictions in his favor for his capital development work….. Sometimes you just need to go on doing your ground work & wait for things to happen…..not as simple…….but could happen, thats what happened for every election…..unless “you don’t do witch hunting politics (or) ignore about inclusive development (or) don’t think of grabbing power even in neighboring state. .. Dont you think i’m good a writing a political thriller novel :-), i think i should try it. | ||
| James Junior Artist Username: James Post Number: 821 Registered: 04-2014 Posted From: 68.168.96.205 Rating: N/A |
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