| Author | Message | ||
     Okatelugodu Side Hero Username: Okatelugodu Post Number: 7358 Registered: 02-2008 Posted From: 199.67.138.49 Rating: N/A |
Same here bro. 100+ anukuntunna. Just trying to justify my prediction  | ||
| Newguy123 Hero Username: Newguy123 Post Number: 19826 Registered: 01-2009 Posted From: 192.200.5.41 Rating: N/A |
110+ I believe in local elections than surveys | ||
| Okatelugodu Side Hero Username: Okatelugodu Post Number: 7357 Registered: 02-2008 Posted From: 199.67.138.42 Rating: N/A |
This is my point, in the absense of historical trends between 2 parties, they cannot factor in the right variables into the model. Someone with detailed insights into local dynamics will be best placed to predict in this scenario where one of the 2 parties in a 2 party system is new. Anyway just a self fulfulling prophesy from my side to be happy for the next few hours  . CHooddam final result ela vuntundo | ||
| Ramramesh Junior Artist Username: Ramramesh Post Number: 865 Registered: 03-2014 Posted From: 216.31.219.19 Rating: N/A |
Lagada has never been wrong in predicting the number of seats..Even in the Bi-elections he was right on dot in the seat count...YSRCP ki itthade... | ||
| Ysr2009 Comedian Username: Ysr2009 Post Number: 1488 Registered: 03-2014 Posted From: 129.135.0.19 Rating: |
Lagada knows ins and outs of TDP & YSRC he knows everything about caste, money, religions, regions and politics So, naa definitely vote lagga survey ke.. | ||
| Okatelugodu Side Hero Username: Okatelugodu Post Number: 7356 Registered: 02-2008 Posted From: 199.67.138.49 Rating: N/A |
Because of lack if historical trends if they have built their model based on last bye elections. Results will be even more consistent. I doubt if they do it, given their experience but in any case I believe it will not be easy to predict this time around. | ||
| Okatelugodu Side Hero Username: Okatelugodu Post Number: 7355 Registered: 02-2008 Posted From: 199.67.138.49 Rating: N/A |
Here's an interesting read on what goes into the surveys. https://www.google.com/url?q=http://www.iitk.ac.in/reach/200 8/Forecasting/Rajeev.pdf&sa=U&ei=WAJ1U8fkCJaXqAbLuILwCw&ved= 0CEcQFjAI&usg=AFQjCNHpjqlLMfF3vFE1JegzRUnwx2uKcQ Though based on a preset proabablity distribution or a model it is relatively easier to predict the vote % for a party given a random sample(RANDOM is the key), to predict a win/loss in a seat, lot of factors(age,caste,religion, economic stature etc) have to be taken into account into the model. Usually they take historical trends to arrive at these factors in a traditional 2 party system. However given that YSR party is going in for the general election for first time and it is now a 2 party system with one being a new party. This is rare and I believe there are bound to be lot of inconsistencies in prediction. So I won't be surprised if these predictions are not even close to the final result. Any thoughts? |
