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Blundersucks
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Post Number: 605
Registered: 02-2013
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Posted on Wednesday, April 02, 2014 - 03:04 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

good info.
ee desa charitra choosina emunnadi garva karanam, Nara jaathi charitra samstam , parapeedana parayanatvaM
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Rock
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Post Number: 19068
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Lolligadu:

me venu





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Lolligadu
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Post Number: 5739
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Rock:

usual ga newspapers ki info icche vilekarulu best. cadre kuda emundhi adho lokam lo undi potharu. yes cadre will bring good info. but there is posiblty they live in their own world as they meet people who tell them its all good for them.


me venu
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Rock
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Lolligadu:

ellandari kantey lagadapati great. exit poll sethad local journos tho happy ga resultss announce sethad.



Rock:

usual ga newspapers ki info icche vilekarulu best. cadre kuda emundhi adho lokam lo undi potharu. yes cadre will bring good info. but there is posiblty they live in their own world as they meet people who tell them its all good for them.


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Lolligadu
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ellandari kantey lagadapati great. exit poll sethad local journos tho happy ga resultss announce sethad.
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Lolligadu
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Reddit:

Last two times TV channels la EP lu avatam kante do it the right way ani na feeling


idi correctey annai, kani tv's chesey surveys masses ni connect cheyyataki edo oka party vaipu at the same time valla credibility koda loose kakunda undenduku choosukuntayi. ayina correct ga chesthey problems identify avuthayi and party knows what to do if they come to power or how to target the ruling if they are opp.
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Filmbuff
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Reddit:

ilativi vandha chustham but at the end of the day mana cadre teche intelligence can't be replicated by any such surveys.




Correct, the lag effect can be noticed now. The ground level information that TDP is on an upswing was not being reflected in the earlier surveys, but now it has filtered up to the national media and the research agencies.
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Rock
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Lolligadu:

recent ga bapatla lo annam satish seyisthey 4o lachalu ayyindi. comedy ayipoyindi meeku surveylu antey constituency constituency seyisthey vadi channel ee kadu anni channels ammukovalsi vasthadi.




cheyyamani nenu cheppatam ledhu. jsut accurate ga ravali ante ani cheptunna.

i agree with reddit annai. us lo whole country ki factors same only 2 parties anduko kuda. race and party and other normal ones.

india lo laccha thombai party lu, laccha thombai kulalu. okko constituency ki inko constituency ki parameter different .


just chepthunna anthe. ala cheyali anatam ledhu
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Reddit
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Post Number: 2792
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Lolligadu:

biz school?


Was, now university with a big campus you know.
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Reddit
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Lolligadu:

very tedious, costly and lengthy process annai. it takes weeks to come to a conclusion in the mean time political scenario mi8 change and there might be a swing. avanni consider sesi cheyyali. Indian politics are very fluid. vote share change units lo untadi unlike other countries.


Those changes can be adjusted as and when they come pedha kastam em kadhi but with some degree of error will still be there anuko. Last two times TV channels la EP lu avatam kante do it the right way ani na feeling
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Lolligadu
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Reddit:

ICFAI


biz school?
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Lolligadu
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Reddit:

bhayya nijamaina survey chestha ante funding techukotam pedha kastam em kadhu & even otherwise credibility vunte a survey ki people will pay and take that report.


very tedious, costly and lengthy process annai. it takes weeks to come to a conclusion in the mean time political scenario mi8 change and there might be a swing. avanni consider sesi cheyyali. Indian politics are very fluid. vote share change units lo untadi unlike other countries.
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Reddit
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Lolligadu:


ICFAI did an exhaustive survey for some party in AP during 2004 elections and that was the best survey done till date. Even though it worked the same party didn't want to take up the same exercise again & ICFAI too was reluctant to take it up.
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Lolligadu:

recent ga bapatla lo annam satish seyisthey 4o lachalu ayyindi. comedy ayipoyindi meeku surveylu antey constituency constituency seyisthey vadi channel ee kadu anni channels ammukovalsi vasthadi.


bhayya nijamaina survey chestha ante funding techukotam pedha kastam em kadhu & even otherwise credibility vunte a survey ki people will pay and take that report.
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Reddit
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Post Number: 2788
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Rock:

ya i agree. questionnaire pin point ga every factor touch cheyakapothe fail ayipothundhi automatic ga. ye constituency ki aa constituency lo questionnaire seperate ga undali. local factors ni batti.


India lo ilanti surveys fail avvataniki basic ga two reasons okkati all these questionnaires are prepared by profs sitting in Qutub institutional area of Delhi and usually these are prepared by marketing guys rather than political science ones. Rendodhi all of them are in english and the gist is lost in translation.
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Lolligadu
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Rock:

ye constituency ki aa constituency lo questionnaire seperate ga undali. local factors ni batti.


recent ga bapatla lo annam satish seyisthey 4o lachalu ayyindi. comedy ayipoyindi meeku surveylu antey constituency constituency seyisthey vadi channel ee kadu anni channels ammukovalsi vasthadi.
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Reddit
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Rock:

usual ga newspapers ki info icche vilekarulu best. cadre kuda emundhi adho lokam lo undi potharu. yes cadre will bring good info. but there is posiblty they live in their own world as they meet people who tell them its all good for them.


Yes local reporters deggara manchi info vuntadhi but only print valla deggara not TV ones. Mid-level leaders daka gung-ho vuntaru and live in their own lokam kaani foot soldiers of any party are very pragmatic and they don't even have egos to call a spade a spade.
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Rock
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Post Number: 19061
Registered: 04-2012
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Reddit:

Any survey is only as good as the questionnaire that form these kinda surveys and interpretation of that. You just have a look at the questionnaire and see if you will give the same answers without taking local issues into cognisance or not and you'll have the answer to the accuracy of this study.




ya i agree. questionnaire pin point ga every factor touch cheyakapothe fail ayipothundhi automatic ga. ye constituency ki aa constituency lo questionnaire seperate ga undali. local factors ni batti.
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Reddit
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Rock:

usual ga sample size thakkuva unna kuda scientific surveys proven correct lot of times if you do it like how you supposed to.


Any survey is only as good as the questionnaire that form these kinda surveys and interpretation of that. You just have a look at the questionnaire and see if you will give the same answers without taking local issues into cognisance or not and you'll have the answer to the accuracy of this study.

Rock:

us lo to the dot predict chestaru kadha 90% of the time.


Two party scenario lo easy to do this but manaki antha simple kadhu kadha
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Rock
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Reddit:

ilativi vandha chustham but at the end of the day mana cadre teche intelligence can't be replicated by any such surveys. Rakula Gandhi evvaram antha ilanti surveys medha base chesukune & apparently they went ahead with bifurcation after looking at such surveys completely ignoring IBs inputs.





vaallu kcr gadu vileenam guarantee ani feel ayyarule. plus seemandhra lo tirigirani lokalaku vellam ani decide ayyaru.

usual ga newspapers ki info icche vilekarulu best. cadre kuda emundhi adho lokam lo undi potharu. yes cadre will bring good info. but there is posiblty they live in their own world as they meet people who tell them its all good for them.
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Reddit
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Rock:

ya same csds survey with lot more elobarate info. oka 100 pages with different graphs and stuff.


ilativi vandha chustham but at the end of the day mana cadre teche intelligence can't be replicated by any such surveys. Rakula Gandhi evvaram antha ilanti surveys medha base chesukune & apparently they went ahead with bifurcation after looking at such surveys completely ignoring IBs inputs.
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Rock
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Reddit:

anitiki NES 2009 ey mother source le annay meee party maa party ani kadhu andharu ivve stats using, problem Ive with such surveys is their sample sizes don't take into consideration of the local caste matrixes.




usual ga sample size thakkuva unna kuda scientific surveys proven correct lot of times if you do it like how you supposed to.

us lo to the dot predict chestaru kadha 90% of the time.
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Rock
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economical back ground also congress lead every section
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Reddit
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Rock:

i have similar numbers different source. party source. with lil more extra info.


anitiki NES 2009 ey mother source le annay meee party maa party ani kadhu andharu ivve stats using, problem Ive with such surveys is their sample sizes don't take into consideration of the local caste matrixes.
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Rock
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age groups

also congress lead almost every section.
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Rock
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Reddit:

Voting patterns antha veasy ga teliyavu caste wise especially chindu lanti publications ki edho oka raayi estharu and they are not accurate.





idhi actual ga CSDS survey annai.

ratri cnn ibn survey chesina vade.
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Rock
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Reddit:





ya same csds survey with lot more elobarate info. oka 100 pages with different graphs and stuff.
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Rock:


Voting patterns antha veasy ga teliyavu caste wise especially chindu lanti publications ki edho oka raayi estharu and they are not accurate.
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Rock
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new voters congress gain 48%

new voters tdp gain 30%
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Rock
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Reddit:




i have similar numbers different source. party source. with lil more extra info.
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Taurus0807
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Rock:




Just 2004 nunchi 2009 thesi povatam correct kadhu Anti incumbency vote is important in general elections.
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Rock
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Jackjill:

I don't have any doubts on newly added votes,how do we know the number of TDP and Congress votes?

Is it the diff between 04 and 09?? koncham weird gaa unaayi numbers




its a scientific survey conducted after 2009 elections ananyi.

aa survey prakaram 2004 lo tdp voting lo 16% went to prp
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Rock:


http://www.lokniti.org/pdfs_dataunit/ho_%20india_voted_2009/ States.pdf
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Rock
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Ballasticmissile:




ni talkaya both lost ani maku telusus.

just kinda psot chudu. artham avuthundemo niku
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Taurus0807
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Rock:

congress 35 laks.




Anti incumency votes ela split chesthav? PRP lekunte only TDP ke vachevi kadha avanni?
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Jackjill
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I don't have any doubts on newly added votes,how do we know the number of TDP and Congress votes?

Is it the diff between 04 and 09?? koncham weird gaa unaayi numbers
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Rock
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Jackjill:

etla kanapadutunna neeku




annai miku point artham ayinattu ledhu.

not comparing ysr himself to 2004.

congress mp in 2004 congress mla 2004same conditions. congress mla in 2009 congress mp in 2009 same conditions .

prp valla kolpoyina % simialr for both mp and mla.


db lo janalu 16.4 mp votes 15.4 mla votes ysr ki padaledhu 10 lakh votes antaru. matter of fact 2004 lo mp vots 2009 mp votes decline 2004 mla votes 2009 mla votes decline chuste ysr fared better ane info.


adhi artham kavalsina vallaki artham avuthundhile.
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Shikari
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Rock:

congress lost 35 lakhs votes
tdp lost 23 lakhs votes



thokka emi kadhu. idhi a+b=c kadhu...variable factors untayi a.x+b.y=c
http://i.imgur.com/eUYcc.gif
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Ballasticmissile
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Rock:

2004 congress mp vote share 41.54

2004 congress mla vote share 38.5 difference 3.04


2009 congress mp vote share 38.95

2009 congress mla vote share 36.53 difference 2.42




2004 lo congress 38.5 in 234 constituencies

mp.s lo 38.5 kadu 41.5 constituencires 34 poti chesindi....

alane 2009 lo congress 36.53 in 294 constiuencies

and m.ps lo congress ki 38.95 in 42 mp constituencies

actually ysr & congress lost in vote % whole state lo....
i am leading a pious life so far so good
new_user:Please, dont brng brand Mahesh into this discussion. BMW ki 50k pay chestunnarani, Chevy kooda anthe demand chesthe, ela?
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Taurus0807
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Rock:




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2004_(Andhra_Pradesh)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2004_(Andhra_Pradesh)
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Rock
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Taurus0807:

nnai TDP+ ki enni votes vachayi 2009 lo alane aa pergina 70 lakhs ni ela divide chesthav?




perigina votes prp % ucchadu.

prp got votes from congress got votes from tdp got votes from new voters.

tdp nundi 23 lakhs new voters 12 lakhs congress 35 laks. total 70 lakhs prp votes
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Rock
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kotta votes increased from 2004 to 2009

6305893.

19% of news voters went to prp.11,98119.

so 23 lakhs tdp, 12 lakhs new voters. total 35 lakhs. but prp got 35 lakhs. so who is that 35 lakhs belong to?

so who lost because of prp more. tdp or congress.


congress lost 35 lakhs votes

tdp lost 23 lakhs votes
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Taurus0807
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Rock:

16% of 2004 tdp votes went to prp.

which is 22,99104.

prp got 23 lakhs out of 70 lakhs from tdp




Annai TDP+ ki enni votes vachayi 2009 lo alane aa pergina 70 lakhs ni ela divide chesthav?
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Jackjill
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Rock:

2004 congress mla vote share 38.5 difference 3.04



Rock:

2009 congress mla vote share 36.53 difference 2.42



Rock:

ysr gained from 2004 to 2009.


etla kanapadutunna neeku
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Rock
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16% of 2004 tdp votes went to prp.

which is 22,99104.

prp got 23 lakhs out of 70 lakhs from tdp
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Taurus0807
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Rock:

2009 total polled votes 42086278
prp vote % 16.65

total prp votes 70,07365.




Idhi maaku telisina number ee kadha.
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Goldrush
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Good info Rocks.

Post elections 2009 results Hindu loo vesadu same ilantii stats.
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Rock
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total votes polled in 2004.
35780385.

tdp + got 40.16.

ante total polled votes in 2004 for tdp 1,43,69402.
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Rock
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2009 total polled votes 42086278
prp vote % 16.65

total prp votes 70,07365.
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Rock
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Amara:

prp tdp,cong ki entha bokkettindho..aa % kudaa pettandi..




akkadike vasthunna. patience
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Taurus0807
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Rock:

next

2004 congress mp vote share 41.54

2004 congress mla vote share 38.5 difference 3.04


2009 congress mp vote share 38.95

2009 congress mla vote share 36.53 difference 2.42

upa lost 2004 to 2009 .62% . ysr gained from 2004 to 2009.




We need excel for this.
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Rock
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next

2004 congress mp vote share 41.54

2004 congress mla vote share 38.5 difference 3.04


2009 congress mp vote share 38.95

2009 congress mla vote share 36.53 difference 2.42

upa lost 2004 to 2009 .62% . ysr gained from 2004 to 2009.
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Taurus0807
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Jackjill:

This just shows the actual weight lo BCs(apart from Yadav and Goud) in the state population. Despite Congress having comfortable lead in votes from every other section, the difference in the vote between Cong and the Grand alliance was below 2%, and those numbers are justified by the narrow difference in the votes polled for Cong and grand alliance.




Dheenni batti ee caste % entho formulas raseyandi.
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Amara
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Rock:




prp tdp,cong ki entha bokkettindho..aa % kudaa pettandi..
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Jackjill
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This just shows the actual weight lo BCs(apart from Yadav and Goud) in the state population. Despite Congress having comfortable lead in votes from every other section, the difference in the vote between Cong and the Grand alliance was below 2%, and those numbers are justified by the narrow difference in the votes polled for Cong and grand alliance.

Hmm!! interesting
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Shikari
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Rock:

prp ki okka kapu lu thappithe inka evaru veyyaledhu . that shows they had problem with cadre . cadre lekapothe emavuthundhi anedhi artham avuthundhi. shikari ba 2019 lo pk ki idhe avuthudnhi direct elections ante



there are no rules,no formulas...cadre lekapoyina..commitment from the leader,confidence in voters..can do wonders.PRP failed miserably in those two aspects.cadre ante evaro kadhu...nammina prajale cadre avutharu.
http://i.imgur.com/eUYcc.gif
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Taurus0807
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Rock:

same muslims lo miku kuda emi padavu. ilanti changes chala untayi.




Muslims as it is gaa padathaayi inka kontha peragochu.
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Taurus0807
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Rock:

mala

congress 51.0

tdp 28.8

prp 13.5




Mala vallalo maaku 29% voting vundhaa? unbelievable. eesari oka 10% anna vasthundhaa?
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Rock
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Taurus0807:




post 19026
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Rock
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Taurus0807:

Ok veetilo eesari 10 to 15% kuda pavavu YCP ki.




same muslims lo miku kuda emi padavu. ilanti changes chala untayi.
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Taurus0807
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Rock:

hammaya oka section complete chesa.




Mala figures pettaledhu.
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Rock
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Taurus0807:




mala pettanu chudu kinda
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Rock
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Jackjill:

ivi Lok Sabha numbers or Assembly numbers??




dont have that info. but assembluy anukontunna . but i dont know for sure. matter chadivithe naku alane artham ayindhi
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Rock
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muslims


congress 50.7

tdp 24.8

prp 6.9


hammaya oka section complete chesa.

overall ga cong lead every section

except kamma , kapu ( expected) other two they were behind yadava and gowda


prp ki okka kapu lu thappithe inka evaru veyyaledhu . that shows they had problem with cadre . cadre lekapothe emavuthundhi anedhi artham avuthundhi. shikari ba 2019 lo pk ki idhe avuthudnhi direct elections ante
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Taurus0807
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Mala and Muslims pettu
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Jackjill
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ivi Lok Sabha numbers or Assembly numbers??
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Shikari
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Rock:

ettaka pothe nammava. nannu nammava. nitho pacchi. po nenu matlada


sare kani...inko 5 weeks...nee ishtam vachina lekkalu cheppu:D
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Taurus0807
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Rock:

brahmin, vysya, velamdora, raju etc annattu




Ok veetilo eesari 10 to 15% kuda pavavu YCP ki.
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Rock
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Taurus0807:




brahmin, vysya, velamdora, raju etc annattu
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Rock
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Shikari:

proof ettu.




ettaka pothe nammava. nannu nammava. nitho pacchi. po nenu matlada
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Taurus0807
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Rock:

upper castes




Ante ee ee castes?
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Rock
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sts


congress 543

tdp 33.3

prp 7.2
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Shikari
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Rock:

avunu


proof ettu.
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Rock
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Shikari:

kadhu




chilipi krishna

avunu
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Rock
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Taurus0807:

ivi alliance kalipina numbers ee na?





yes tdp + numbers
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Shikari
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Taurus0807:

ivi alliance kalipina numbers ee na?


kadhu
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Rock
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upper castes


congress 38.2

tdp 33.7

prp 4.5

ikkada kuda congress lead
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Taurus0807
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Rock:

here is shocker. madiga always tdp anevalalku


congress 47.7

tdp 46.6

prp 4.7




ivi alliance kalipina numbers ee na?
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Shikari
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Rock:

here is shocker. madiga always tdp anevalalku
congress 47.7
tdp 46.6




bongu shocker..1% kaa? adhi power lo undi,dabbulu vedha jallina party ki 1%,0.6% lead pedha vishayam kadhu.21% kams is real shocker to me:-)
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Rock
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Taurus0807:

TDP lo vunna kapulu chiru vepu turn ayyaru kaani Congress lo vunna valla avvaledhu aa time lo may be Congress power lo vundatam valla anukunta




congress lsot huge chunk. but 30% anna nilupukondhi ante power lo undatam valla. usual ga 20% reddies 20% kammas kuda avatala parties lo unnaruga. alane 20% anukonna. migatha 10 karanam congress ki power undatam.
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Rock
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Shikari:

0.6 ekkuva cong ki.adhi PRP ikkada oka 5% ekkuva bokka pettindhi maaku





deeniki kuda numbers istha thondara padi thoseyyaku.

prp ki padina majority votes lo ye party nundi vacchayo numbers istha.

ysr mp votes mla votes change gurinchi isthanu

ysr ela pull off chesado kuda isthanu relax
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Shikari
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Saint:

ide vere ee community lo ina oka strong person vasthunadu ante motham 70% above votes solid ga padi vundevi!


ikkada padevi emo...kani elections daggara pade patiki PRP dolla ane vishayam ardham ayi vote waste cheyatam ishtam leka veyaledhemo
http://i.imgur.com/eUYcc.gif
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Taurus0807
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Username: Taurus0807

Post Number: 3602
Registered: 12-2011
Posted From: 198.208.251.21

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Saint:

ide vere ee community lo ina oka strong person vasthunadu ante motham 70% above votes solid ga padi vundevi!




TDP lo vunna kapulu chiru vepu turn ayyaru kaani Congress lo vunna valla avvaledhu aa time lo may be Congress power lo vundatam valla anukunta.
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Rock
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Username: Rock

Post Number: 19027
Registered: 04-2012
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Posted on Wednesday, April 02, 2014 - 12:09 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

here is shocker. madiga always tdp anevalalku


congress 47.7

tdp 46.6

prp 4.7


not much but cong leads. prp utter flop ie sections lo. usuallly money section.
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Saint
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Username: Saint

Post Number: 30958
Registered: 01-2011
Posted From: 68.13.100.193

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Rock:



so deeni batti neethi gajji andariki fullu. prp kapu 10% thakkuva undataniki karanam already avatala parties lo years nundi unna batch vallani vadalaledhu. paiga valla support ekkuva congress ki . congress appudu power lo undhi prp pettinappudu anduku congress ni andaru vadalaledhu.




migatha parties lo reds/kams lera? but still they voted for TDP & Congress ...PRP lo ade lacking...... ide vere ee community lo ina oka strong person vasthunadu ante motham 70% above votes solid ga padi vundevi!
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Taurus0807
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Username: Taurus0807

Post Number: 3601
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Rock:

tdp bc la party anedhi correct kaadhu. only oc , gouda la lo they have lead. rest of the bc they dont. prp miserably fialed here. because they didnt have cadre. bcs usuaully run with the upper caste running the village.




PRP chelchukunna BC votes anni TDP ve otherwise TDP way ahead lo vundedhi BC % lo Congress kanna.
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Shikari
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Username: Shikari

Post Number: 14097
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Rock:

tdp bc la party anedhi correct kaadhu. only oc , gouda la lo they have lead


0.6 ekkuva cong ki.adhi PRP ikkada oka 5% ekkuva bokka pettindhi maaku
http://i.imgur.com/eUYcc.gif
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Rock
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Username: Rock

Post Number: 19026
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Posted on Wednesday, April 02, 2014 - 12:07 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

mala

congress 51.0

tdp 28.8

prp 13.5

prp failed again.
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Rock
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Username: Rock

Post Number: 19025
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Taurus0807:

Enti PRP ki anni castes 10.8 isthunnav?




aa rendu castes same numbers
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Rock
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Username: Rock

Post Number: 19024
Registered: 04-2012
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Posted on Wednesday, April 02, 2014 - 12:06 am:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

rest of bcs

congress 38.3

tdp 37.7

prp 15.5


tdp bc la party anedhi correct kaadhu. only oc , gouda la lo they have lead. rest of the bc they dont. prp miserably fialed here. because they didnt have cadre. bcs usuaully run with the upper caste running the village. prp veellani influence cheyalekapoyindhi
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Taurus0807
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Username: Taurus0807

Post Number: 3600
Registered: 12-2011
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Rock:




Enti PRP ki anni castes 10.8 isthunnav?
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Rock
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Username: Rock

Post Number: 19023
Registered: 04-2012
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gowdas

congress 36.4

tdp 40.3

prp 10.8
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Rock
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Username: Rock

Post Number: 19022
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yadavs

congress 35.0

tdp 45.9

prp 10.8
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Rock
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Username: Rock

Post Number: 19021
Registered: 04-2012
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kapu


congree 30.8

tdp 16.2

kapu 53.1



so deeni batti neethi gajji andariki fullu. prp kapu 10% thakkuva undataniki karanam already avatala parties lo years nundi unna batch vallani vadalaledhu. paiga valla support ekkuva congress ki . congress appudu power lo undhi prp pettinappudu anduku congress ni andaru vadalaledhu.


migatha castes kud apedathanu
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Rock
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Username: Rock

Post Number: 19020
Registered: 04-2012
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kamma

congree 21

tdp 63.7

prp 7.3
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Amara
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Username: Amara

Post Number: 14586
Registered: 09-2010
Posted From: 49.205.158.140

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Posted on Tuesday, April 01, 2014 - 11:57 pm:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

ee saari ysrcp ki 80 cross avvuddhaa... :D
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Taurus0807
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Username: Taurus0807

Post Number: 3596
Registered: 12-2011
Posted From: 198.208.251.21

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Posted on Tuesday, April 01, 2014 - 11:57 pm:   Insert Quote Edit PostDelete PostPrint Post   Move Post (Moderator/Admin Only)Ban Poster IP (Moderator/Admin only)

continue with other castes. Ippudu area wise split cheyali malli.
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Rock
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Username: Rock

Post Number: 19019
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reddies

congress 65.9

tdp 20.1

prp 3.4

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