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Questions on exit polls

Chalanachithram.com DB » New TF Industry Related » Archive through May 17, 2019 » Questions on exit polls « Previous Next »
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Inquisitive
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Posted on Friday, May 17, 2019 - 08:31 am:       


Gharshana:

there might cases where ppl might lie as well due to monarchy kind of leadership present in the area which does not give a clear idea of the voting pulse..



True. Paritala Ravi time lo Penugonda for example.
"Sakshi is a most balanced and independent media. This has no affiliation with any political party," Jagan had said. Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/news/article/sakshi-retelecasts- story-omits-antisonia-remarks/701963
 

Inquisitive
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Posted on Friday, May 17, 2019 - 08:22 am:       


Redbull:

this doen't matter. same intlo males one party ki ladies inko party ki vese antha scene ledhu..may be very very minimal percent.



Variation may be small in percentage terms but keep in mind that ladies constitute about 50% of the electorate so even small variations matter!
"Sakshi is a most balanced and independent media. This has no affiliation with any political party," Jagan had said. Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/news/article/sakshi-retelecasts- story-omits-antisonia-remarks/701963
 

Redbull
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Posted on Friday, May 17, 2019 - 05:08 am:       


Inquisitive:

the sample of women tends to be low. This is because almost all field surveyors are males and also because women don't appear in public places (such as bus stops, tea stalls) as much as men.




this doen't matter. same intlo males one party ki ladies inko party ki vese antha scene ledhu..may be very very minimal percent.

just caste basis pyna, 15-20% votes solid gaa lekkalu vesukuntunnaru..alaantidhi same intlo gents oka party ki ladies inko party antha scene vundadhu
 

Awara1984
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Posted on Friday, May 17, 2019 - 05:02 am:       


Inquisitive:




depends on your interest, he gives a good overview
 

Gharshana
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Posted on Friday, May 17, 2019 - 01:24 am:       

adding to ur list... there might cases where ppl might lie as well due to monarchy kind of leadership present in the area which does not give a clear idea of the voting pulse..
 

Inquisitive
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Posted on Friday, May 17, 2019 - 01:04 am:       


Awara1984:



The Verdict aa Prannoy Roy book ante? Is it worth a read?
"Sakshi is a most balanced and independent media. This has no affiliation with any political party," Jagan had said. Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/news/article/sakshi-retelecasts- story-omits-antisonia-remarks/701963
 

Awara1984
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Posted on Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 07:43 pm:       

Even after taking population representative sample and collecting the data, they will add weightages to it

For ex, in general as a trend minorities voting percentage will be a bit higher, so they will a get a bit higher weightage compared to their representative sample

As you said if there is a general trend in woman then the same thing happens their weightage will be different

I am not sure how far it is true, according to prannoy Roy book, women electorals does not match with their population number, according to him many women for various reasons are not registered voters
 

Chakri
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Posted on Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 07:10 pm:       


Rediff:

Exit polls and opinion polls annee trash.. TDP coming




topic enti nee badha enti.
 

Bharat
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Posted on Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 07:02 pm:       


Lenin:

90% of survey organization do not reveal the demographic details of the survey




Actually well established/credible agencies will reveal the demographic information. Of course, they might not give it for free.
 

Rediff
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Posted on Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 06:56 pm:       

Exit polls and opinion polls annee trash.. TDP coming
 

Lenin
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Posted on Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 05:28 pm:       

before ascertaining your views, u need to consider the fact that there were surveys on how women vote..

and a recent survey has revealed that around 70% of South Indian women are influenced by their partners...so , there will not be much concentration on seeking their opinion


Inquisitive:

Youth are likely to be overrepresented and senior citizens are likely to be underrepresented.




do u have any statistics..90% of survey organization do not reveal the demographic details of the survey


Inquisitive:

hen people vote against the party/candidate that gave them (the most) money, they are more likely to lie. So, won't the party/candidate that spends more be overestimated




not in the case of exit polls at least...there will be a margin of error always in every grouo +-2%


Inquisitive:

Urban voter sample is easier to collect than rural voter sample as there are better transportation and other facilities for field surveyors.




Urban and semi urban voter sample is more diverse compared to Rural voting..

Rural voting is almost static in most of the regions in a 2 party system...like in many villages , the local leaders will approximately predict the majorities after voting
Guntur, Hyderabad, Andhra, Telangana, Tamilnadu, Karnataka first....India last!!!
 

Chakri
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Posted on Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 05:23 pm:       


Inquisitive:

So IVR survey lo bias untadi kada. Do you think the exit poll agencies make sufficient adjustments to fix the bias?




There is something called normalization for its statistical thing... I am not sure how exactly they do it but that is what they do to balance the figures.
 

Inquisitive
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Posted on Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 05:21 pm:       


Chakri:

There are two types of surveys
1. ivr -- mostly urban middle class.
2. field study -- covers everyone along with labor.



So IVR survey lo bias untadi kada. Do you think the exit poll agencies make sufficient adjustments to fix the bias?
"Sakshi is a most balanced and independent media. This has no affiliation with any political party," Jagan had said. Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/news/article/sakshi-retelecasts- story-omits-antisonia-remarks/701963
 

Chakri
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Posted on Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 05:20 pm:       

There are two types of surveys
1. ivr -- mostly urban middle class.
2. field study -- covers everyone along with labor.
 

Chakri
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Posted on Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 05:17 pm:       


Inquisitive:

1. Generally, the sample of women tends to be low. This is because almost all field surveyors are males and also because women don't appear in public places (such as bus stops, tea stalls) as much as men.




Specific to this.. Parties take specific study such as women sentiment and they measure it all along.
 

Inquisitive
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Posted on Thursday, May 16, 2019 - 05:16 pm:       

I have the following questions/concerns about exit polls. Do any of you have answers to these?

1. Generally, the sample of women tends to be low. This is because almost all field surveyors are males and also because women don't appear in public places (such as bus stops, tea stalls) as much as men.

Do all exit polls correct adjust for this disproportionately low representation?

2. Youth are likely to be overrepresented and senior citizens are likely to be underrepresented.

3. When people vote against the party/candidate that gave them (the most) money, they are more likely to lie. So, won't the party/candidate that spends more be overestimated? (I suspect that this is the reason why AAP's performance in 2015 was grossly underestimated by exit polls)

4. Urban voter sample is easier to collect than rural voter sample as there are better transportation and other facilities for field surveyors.

5.
"Sakshi is a most balanced and independent media. This has no affiliation with any political party," Jagan had said. Link: http://www.outlookindia.com/news/article/sakshi-retelecasts- story-omits-antisonia-remarks/701963

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